Percent: 61.46; Remaining matches: India (1 home Test), SL (2 away)
If Australia wins the Sydney Test against India, it will advance to the WTC final regardless of the results in Sri Lanka; if Australia won in Sydney but lost both Tests in their next series in Sri Lanka, they would finish with 57.02 percentage points. 50 from India and 53.85 from Sri Lanka.
A draw in Sydney will keep them ahead of India, but would leave the door open for Sri Lanka to sneak in; If Australia were to draw in Sydney but lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish on 53.51, while Sri Lanka would rise to 53.85.
If Australia were to lose in Sydney, they would need a win in Sri Lanka to qualify. A 1-1 verdict in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney would leave Australia with 57.02 to India’s 55.26. If Australia draws both Tests in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney, India and Australia will be tied at 55.26, but India will qualify based on having won more series in this WTC cycle.
Percent: 52.78; Remaining matches: Australia (1 out)
India needs to win in Sydney to remain in the fight for the WTC final. A win would take India to 55.26, which would be enough to finish second if Australia managed no more than two draws in Sri Lanka. As mentioned above, if Australia draw both Tests, they will finish tied with India on percentage, but India will qualify with more series wins in this cycle. If Australia wins 1-0, they will drop to 53.51 and Sri Lanka will finish on 48.72 (with a 1-0 win).
However, if India only manages a draw, they will drop to 51.75 and be out of the WTC final race. This is because even if Australia lost both Tests in Sri Lanka after drawing in Sydney, they would finish with 53.51, while Sri Lanka would rise to 53.85.
Percent: 45.45; Remaining matches: Australia (2 at home)
The only way Sri Lanka can qualify is if the Sydney Test ends in a draw and they then beat Australia 2-0. In that case, Sri Lanka, with 53.85, would finish above Australia (53.51) and India (51.75).
If India wins in Sydney, they will eliminate Sri Lanka. Australia will also surely finish ahead of Sri Lanka if they finish 3-1 in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
