The Fresh England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars begin Sunday’s Round 7 action from Wembley Stadium in London. All clubs come into this world face to face trying to show their seasons in a safer way and then end up with a 1-5 start.
For Jacksonville, that’s especially true as they flounder in what seems like every other situation in which a teacher, Doug Pederson, could be out of business if the tides don’t turn quickly. The Jags are 2-10 in their 12 tempo games through last season, and Trevor Lawrence is 1-10 in his previous 11 starts.
Meanwhile, the Patriots, who have also struggled for a year, find themselves in a different situation. They are in the middle of a complete rebuild and they just got better Wrong. 3 overall pick, Drake Maye, to QB1 a generation ago. He threw three touchdowns in the blowout loss to Houston on Round 6, but he also had some decisions and a fumble, so he’ll be looking for a more efficient trip along with his first professional win.
Patriots vs. Jaguars where to follow
Was: Sunday October 20 | Was: 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time
Location: Wembley Stadium (London)
TV: NFL Community | Tide: fubo (fight for the distant)
Notice: CBS Sports App
Odd: Jaguars -5.5; O/U 41.5 (via FanDuel sportsbook)
When the Patriots have the ball
New England’s passing attack received a jolt with Maye inserted into the lineup. In the previous five games under Jacoby Brissett, the Patriots averaged 119.4 yards in the wind. At the end of the generation, Maye threw for 209, so there is promise that we could see a more prolific passing game in the future.
Going back to the preseason, Maye has shown his ability to push the ball through the grass more than Brissett, and he showed just that during Game 6. Approximately 9.1% of Maye’s throws were 20 yards or longer into the grass and 4. of them finished. Meanwhile, it recorded 7.0 yards of wind based on its target. For reference, Brissett had six completions of 20+ yards in his previous starts combined.
That ability to throw poorly in the field will require him to get advantages like rookie Ja’Lynn Polk and sophomore Kayshon Boutte. That said, DeMario Douglas is the one who could become the great security blanket for Maye, thanks to his ability to make himself evident in small windows outside of the practice sequence. Douglas is one of the league’s best receivers in the developing division, and he scored six of his nine targets in Maye’s last class for 92 yards and a touchdown.
This unit is capable of supporting a Jaguars pass coverage that allows quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes for 276.7 yards, the worst number in the league, according to the sport.
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When the Jaguars have the ball
Jacksonville’s offense has struggled to find its identity to this point this season. The club ranks 22nd overall by play (18.8), 28th in third down (30.4% conversion rate) and is in the league’s basic phase in red zone landing power .
Life Trevor Lawrence, who is 1-10 in his 11 starts, is not blameless; his motion receptors are also making him sick. The Game 6 loss to Chicago in London was a key example of that, with the receivers missing four potential touchdowns. On a yearly basis, Jacksonville has the third most drops in the NFL (15).
That said, the unit will need to get a boost in that regard, as safety Evan Engram returned to the final lineup next, out of rhythm due to shock. In the loss, the closer scored all 10 of his targets for 102 yards. Engram is coming off a 114-catch season in 2023, so reinserting that type of player into the offense, against a Patriots defense that has struggled against tight ends, could do wonders on Round 7 and beyond.
In the backfield, Travis Etienne is dealing with a hamstring concussion, so he could be limited or ruled out for this game only. And this is probably not such a bad thing. Teammate Tank Bigsby has been the most efficient running back for his team this season and leads the NFL with 7.2 yards per rush average.
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Key matchup between Patriots and Jaguars
If Christian Gonzalez shadows Brian Thomas Jr., this cornerback-receiver matchup could be one of the most interesting subplots of this Date 7 head-to-head. Thomas continues to blossom as one of the NFL’s brightest young receivers , even amid Jacksonville’s struggles. The 22-year-old is averaging 70.7 receiving yards per game and has three touchdowns in six games. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has been one of the bright spots for Fresh England, as the latest first-round pick has largely kept opposing receivers in sight. Through six games, Gonzalez is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 55.8% of their targets against him, along with a passer rating of 71.1.
Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction
The Jaguars are 5.5-point favorites in this matchup and have the advantage of already being in London next time to participate in the last generation, the year in which the Patriots want to fly through the pool. That being said, this may be a perfect spot for Fresh England from a sports betting standpoint. Even after a 20-point loss to Houston’s last generation, the franchise is getting a strong performance from Maye, who now has an easier opponent in the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville ranks 30th in yards per game allowed and is the ultimate red zone powerhouse, allowing opposing sides to score a whopping 76% on their trips to the red zone. Sure, Fresh England’s defense gave up 41 points last generation, but that was to a Texans offense led by CJ Stroud, and it’s tanning to see this version of the Trevor Lawrence-led Jags doing the same. Pats get first win of Drake Maye’s time in London.
Projected ranking: Patriots 23, Jaguars 20
the select: Patriots +5.5
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