Less than three years ago, he was traded by the franchise with which he won a Super Bowl. Eleven months ago, the Broncos benched him and ultimately absorbed the largest salary cap hit in NFL history.
And come March, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson could be the crown jewel of the free agent quarterback class.
A weak free agent class, coupled with a weak draft class, creates an interesting supply and demand question for the league at its most important position. And Wilson, who will become an unrestricted free agent after this season, could have some options.
Wilson, 36, is currently playing on a one-year, $1.21 million veteran’s minimum contract in Pittsburgh, thanks to the Broncos still paying Wilson $39 million. The Steelers also have Justin Fields, who is in the final year of his rookie contract and will also be an unrestricted free agent in March.
As is known, the Steelers do not negotiate during the season, so there is no chance of an extension being made for anyone until the season has concluded. And there is a desire within the building to not only retain Wilson but Fields as well.
The likely reality is that the team will have to pick one in the offseason, and conventional wisdom would be that the franchise chose the player it drafted to start over a healthy Fields when the team was 4-2.
But if a recent survey of NFL executives is any indication, figuring out Wilson’s market is going to be difficult. Text responses across the league asking for Wilson’s expected average contract per year were made for the NFL’s version of a Rorschach test.
- Executive 1: “I think a lot depends on how the season ends and how Pittsburgh sees it. If they make some noise in the playoffs, Geno [Smith] in [$25 million]. If he fails in the final stretch, he is a bridge/substitute in [$10-12 million]”.
- Executive 2: “I think he’ll get more than those backup/bridge quarterback deals ($8-10 million), but if he doesn’t sell, someone will pay him in the future.” [$20 millions] be your true starter like Jimmy [Garoppolo] and Geno got it.”
- Executive 3: “I’d rather have advantages than Old Russ,” said one executive who pegged Wilson’s average annual value at $10 million.
- Executive 4: “[$25-30 million]. “The fair value would be that range.”
- Executive 5: “[$28-32 million]. They’ll add a year of fluff on the backend to make it look better.”
- Executive 6: “[$30 to 35 million]”.
- Executive 7: “Probably in [$30-35 million] range. A Baker Mayfield type deal. “With him as a starter they could win their division and get out of the wild card round.”
There you have it. NFL executives making these types of decisions see Wilson earning between $10 million and $35 million per year in his next deal.
A $10 million deal would mirror Sam Darnold’s current contract with the Vikings. Darnold, a former No. 3 overall pick, is 27 years old and threw just 46 passes last year as San Francisco’s reserve before signing with the Vikings in what was expected to be a reserve role.
Smith’s contract averages $25 million per year with Wilson’s former club. And Mayfield is averaging $33 million after signing his contract with the Buccaneers in the offseason.
Smith and Mayfield were coming off Comeback Player of the Year type seasons, and Smith won the award. Wilson is 4-1 as a starter heading into Sunday’s game against the Bengals. He has thrown seven touchdowns and two interceptions with wins against the Jets, Giants, Ravens and Commanders.
Several sources noted how image conscious Wilson is, alluding to the belief that he would not accept a below-market deal later in his career.
“I think he has a reputation for being very demanding and having a lot to deal with,” said an eighth-team executive who didn’t see any team paying him more than $30 million.
This will be the fourth veteran contract Wilson has signed in his career. After playing out three years of his four-year, $3 million rookie contract, Wilson signed a four-year, $87.6 million extension with the Seahawks to become the highest-paid player in franchise history in 2015.
In 2019, Wilson broke his own Seahawks record by signing a four-year extension worth $140 million. And Seattle traded him to Denver three years later for a draft pick.
The Broncos did not immediately give Wilson a new contract upon trading him because the team was in the process of being sold to the Walton-Penner ownership group. The NFL had just seen the Browns sign Deshaun Watson to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract, and there was hope among the players, their representatives and the union that Wilson could keep that momentum going.
Wilson was a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, who had nearly $200 million in career on-field earnings, whose new team had just traded the farm to get him, and whose team was owned by one of the richest families in this side of the planet. . But Wilson didn’t demand a fully guaranteed deal and signed a five-year, $242.6 million deal that had about half the money guaranteed at signing. Any hope there might have been about fully guaranteed deals from the NBA and MLB were dashed.
It’s too early to determine what Wilson’s next contract would look like beyond the APY. The length of the deal and guaranteed money will be determined later.
But a quarter of the league could have a different starter in Week 1 next year. The Giants, Jets, Panthers, Raiders, Titans, Browns and Steelers are among the teams with uncertain quarterback futures in 2025.
Along with Wilson, quarterbacks like Fields, Darnold, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton and Mac Jones are among those who will be free agents in 2025. And Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are the two college quarterbacks widely considered. to be first-round picks in April’s draft.
The Steelers, meanwhile, haven’t had a quarterback account for more than 10% of their salary cap since Ben Roethlisberger’s final season in 2021. A deal for Wilson in Pittsburgh in the high $20 million would meet that threshold.
Wilson, who just turned 36 this week, doesn’t have age on his side. But with a strong finish this season, there could be a market for Wilson inside and outside of Pittsburgh.
