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NFL Nation, ESPN
The NFC South is still in play at the end of the season for the third straight year, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a legitimate shot at winning a fourth straight title.
The Buccaneers have taken advantage of a weak division the last two years (9-8 winner in 2023, 8-9 winner in 2022). Although Tampa Bay has won four straight titles, the Atlanta Falcons are lurking one game behind. On Tuesday, Atlanta made a big move by benching quarterback Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The New Orleans Saints have little chance of winning the division, even with a losing record, and the Carolina Panthers They can still play water with two. division rivals on their closing schedule.
Here’s a look at how the division race will play out in the final weeks of the 2024 season.
Chance of winning the division: 79.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 81.6%
Final games: at Dallas Cowboys, against Panthers, against Saints
Remaining Strength Rank Schedule: 27
Road to the playoffs: Since their Week 14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bucs have been in sole possession of first place in the division and control their destiny. They need to keep winning to maintain a one-game lead over the Falcons due to the Atlanta tiebreaker. Their Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Chargers was their toughest opponent left and they defeated them 40-17 for their fourth straight win.
The biggest obstacles: Consistency has eluded them in defense, but they have found a winning formula despite mounting injuries. Although none of their three remaining opponents have a winning record, the Panthers took them to overtime in Week 13. They have also struggled with turnovers. Tampa Bay’s 20 turnovers are the seventh-most in the league. – Jenna Laine
Chance of winning the division: 20.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 29.0%
Final games: vs. New York Giants, at Washington Commanders, vs. Panthers
Remaining Strength Rank Schedule: Tied for 31
Road to the playoffs: The Falcons are one game behind the Bucs, but swept the season series. So if those two teams have the same record atop the NFC South, Atlanta would win the division via tiebreaker as long as the Falcons aren’t tied with the Saints. The Falcons need to go 3-0 or 2-1 the rest of the way and hope the Bucs lose once or twice. Atlanta puts itself in a better position to do this by moving from struggling Cousins to Penix. A wild card berth is possible, but four teams that are not division leaders have better records.
The biggest obstacles: Winning the remaining two home games against the Giants and Panthers, who have a combined five wins, is an absolute must. The road game against the Commanders (9-5), who are also fighting for a wild card spot, is a little more precarious, but not completely impossible. Winning and going 10-7 would be a successful season for the Falcons. –Marc Raimondi
Chance of winning the division: 0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 0%
Final games: at Green Bay Packers, against Raiders, at Buccaneers
Remaining Strength Rank Schedule: 12
Road to the playoffs: The Saints really needed the Raiders to pull off an upset against the Falcons because they would now need both the Falcons and the Buccaneers to lose and win to win the NFC South, their only path to the playoffs at this point. That’s pretty unlikely considering how well the Buccaneers are playing. Even if it was close last week, the Saints’ loss to the Panthers will likely come back to haunt them.
The biggest obstacles: Saints do not control their destiny. But even if that weren’t a factor, New Orleans will be at a significant disadvantage. The team’s next game will be under the elements in Green Bay, without starting quarterback Derek Carr and potentially without starting running back Alvin Kamara, who has a groin injury. Although rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler played well for half of last week, it’s still a tall order for a young backup. — Katherine Terrell
Chance of winning the division: 0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 0%
Final games: vs Arizona Cardinals, at Buccaneers, at Falcons
Remaining Strength Rank Schedule: 13
How they can play against other NFC South teams: By doing what they did recently in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs, Bucs and Philadelphia Eagles: playing well enough to win, but overcoming the hump to achieve victory. There is no plan to try to get the first pick in the draft. It’s about establishing a winning culture for 2025. The Bucs proved that in Week 13, when a fumble in overtime was the difference in the Bucs’ victory. They also proved how dangerous Bryce Young can be (298 yards, two total touchdowns).
What remains to be achieved: Solidify whether Young can be the franchise quarterback, if he hasn’t already, so the front office can focus on improving the defense during the offseason. The defense’s inability to stop the run has defined the team’s seventh consecutive losing season. The games against Tampa Bay and Atlanta are perfect examples. The Bucs had 238 rushing yards in their overtime win at Charlotte, and the Falcons had a season-high 198 yards in Week 6. David Newton
