There are 100 million completely guaranteed reasons why this might not happen, but the Falcons need to bench Kirk Cousins and start Michael Penix Jr.
Let’s start, naturally, with the numbers as justification. In Atlanta’s final three games, all losses, Cousins threw six interceptions without a touchdown, averaged 6.96 yards per attempt and led an offense that failed to score more than 20 points.
The quarterback’s dismal play has coincided with a surge on Atlanta’s defense. Since the start of Week 11, the Falcons are eighth in expected points added per play in non-garbage-time situations. In the most recent loss, that unit sacked Justin Herbert five times! They came into the game with five sacks on the season! And the Falcons still couldn’t win.
In the fourth quarter alone, Cousins has a 56.6 rating, which comes from two touchdowns and seven interceptions on 61% completion and 6.02 yards per attempt. Nine of Atlanta’s 12 games to date have been within one score entering the fourth.
This is not a schematic problem, nor are chance actors to blame here.
Cousins has gone from a reliable, high-efficiency pocket passer with limited upside to an immobile quarterback whose weak arm and poor decision-making have become clear liabilities.
As the kids say, Cousins is cooked.
If completion percentage and yards per attempt are dialed in, it would appear that Cousins is operating off the dial. During his six-year stay in Minnesota, he completed 67.8% of his throws at 7.6 yards per attempt. This year in Atlanta, his completion rate is 67.4% and his yards per attempt average is 7.6.
But the film tells a completely different story.
Three of his four interceptions in the 17-13 home loss to the Chargers were brutal.
Those types of decisions and especially that lack of arm strength cripple an NFL offense today. Cousins is operating like a quarterback of the past. His improvisation skills were never a strong suit. But now the speed his arm can generate has fallen far below the levels required to connect even on anticipated shots.
Defensive backs are too fast. The windows close in the blink of an eye. Which means Cousins has to drop the ball drastically before a receiver reaches his spot, thus increasing the difficulty of the pass to an extraordinarily high level.
Ironic to all this: Penix’s arm is probably a big part of why the Falcons shocked the NFL world by selecting him No. 8 overall in April after giving Cousins $100 million fully guaranteed in March.
And arm strength was the deciding factor in two of those interceptions against the Chargers. And they are not the only ones.
Fortunately, amid all their crippling quarterback play, the Falcons still sit atop the NFC South standings at 6-6 with the division record tiebreaker over the 6-6 Buccaneers. And that “clue” seems tenuous.
The Falcons’ last five contests are as follows: Vikings, Raiders, Giants, Commanders and Panthers.
Can they reach nine victories? Will that be enough to win the division?
As much as those should/could be the Falcons’ realistic goals in 2024, they represent Atlanta’s ceiling… that is, if Cousins remains the starting quarterback.
All of this is not to suggest that Penix is guaranteed to be better.
It’s just that Cousins’ biggest appeal for a long time has been that you know what you’re getting with him. And now, that selling point is the exact reason to bench him for a considerably more physically gifted rookie.
