I almost did it. I almost had the perfect slate.
Not in a good way, of course. I almost went winless, which seems unlikely until you consider the kind of season I’ve had here picking games. Only the Los Angeles Rams saved me with my ATS picks by defeating the Vikings. It meant I had 1-5 during the week. Terrible, but better than an O-fer. He was also 3-3.
That brings my season records to 181-97-0 and a disappointing 129-143-6 ATS.
So much for reaching .500 ATS during the year. With seven games left, that ship has already sailed.
But let’s see if I can close the season on a good streak. I like all three dogs this week, which goes against the NFL’s trend of covering favorites all season long, but that’s how I see it for the divisional round of the playoffs.
It can’t be worse than last week. Good?
Saturday, 4:30 pm ET (ABC/ESPN, try fubo for free)
The Chiefs have been resting for three weeks, something they needed. But will the rest cause oxidation? I don’t think that will be a problem for this group of veterans.
The Texans impressed by beating the Chargers last week at home when the offense showed life, but the defense performed strongly. They need the same type of defensive effort here. These teams met in Kansas City in December and the Chiefs won 27-19. In the win against the Chargers last week, the Texans pressured Justin Herbert into four turnovers. But getting that kind of pressure is always the challenge against Patrick Mahomes. Can they pressure him enough to stop him and force him to make decisions?
The Chiefs have struggled on the offensive line this season, but have been better in the past month. That will lead to a more comfortable Mahomes. With Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy on the field together, expect the Chiefs to perform on offense. Their defense will bring out the best in the Texans’ offensive line. That will lead to turnovers by CJ Stroud that will propel the Chiefs to another AFC Championship Game.
Choose: Chiefs 30, Texans 21
Saturday, 8 pm ET (Fox, fubo try it for free)
This should be a high score. The Lions are dynamic on offense and have defensive problems. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, can also score.
Daniels will be even more electrifying inside on the fast track. But the Lions will also get theirs. The Commanders may not be ready to win a game like this, especially in this environment, but they’ll hang in there. Daniels is that good.
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will send a lot of looks to Daniels, but he will hold up and make big plays with his legs against the blitz. But in the end, it will be the Lions who advance with a strong performance from their offense, led by Jared Goff. He’ll make some big shots down the field against the Commanders secondary to win it.
Choose: Lions 34, Commanders 31
Sunday, 3 pm ET (NBC, fubo, try it for free)
The Rams are coming off a physical dominance of the Vikings where they impressed on both sides of the ball. The Eagles beat the Packers and did so thanks to a dominant defensive performance.
The Eagles’ plan here is simple, and it’s the one they used to beat the Rams earlier this year: take down Saquon Barkley. He had 255 yards and two touchdowns as the Eagles beat the Rams, 35-20, in late November. But this Rams team is better than that one. The defense has grown. This time it won’t be so easy. The Eagles will have to throw it better than Jalen Hurts did last week.
As for the Rams offense, Matthew Stafford is one of the best postseason quarterbacks ever. That is important compared to Vic Fangio’s plan. In the end, the Eagles will win. But it will be much closer than the first match.
Choose: Eagles 23, Carneros 20
Sunday, 6:30 pm Eastern Time (CBS, Supreme+)
This is the game of the week for many, tying the two leading MVP candidates: Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson and Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Both have been outstanding this season, leading their teams to this place.
The Ravens beat the Bills in Week 4 of this season in a dominant 35-10 performance. That game was a Sunday night home game for the Ravens, who took advantage. This is an away game in a difficult place to play, which will make it much more challenging.
I expect both defenses to be better than the last time they faced each other. The Ravens turned things around by moving Kyle Hamilton to safety full-time and he helped turn the defense around. The Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson in that game, which was shown when Derrick Henry went crazy that night.
This game will be decided by the defense that plays the best and gets the turnovers. I think it will be the Bills. I think Allen will continue to take care of the football and make big plays in the passing game, which may be the way to beat the Ravens. The Bills will win a game for the ages with a late Tyler Bass field goal.
Choose: Bills 31, Crows 30
