A quite different path for today’s column. Because there are enough sneaky games on this weekend’s Premier League agenda, here’s a brief (sort of) look at one of the sneaky things about three of them before we dive into our predictions for the 10. fits:
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Guimaraes’ wishes in order
Had this summer taken a different turn, it could well have been in the Arsenal net where Bruno Guimaraes lined up on Saturday. Mikel Arteta was and is one of the Brazil international’s most famous admirers, but Newcastle managed to plug their PSR hole in other areas (although neither Elliott Anderson nor Yankuba Minteh appear to be players whose departure should be enjoyed). This was practically a win for a team whose momentum had slowed over the past 365 days. This was a player who looked every inch the standard of a first-choice manager at Arsenal or Manchester Town, while remaining based on Tyneside.
However, after nine games this season, Guimaraes no longer appears to be the player he used to be at the end of the season. That was a player who could dominate games from deep in midfield: dictating the pace of those around him, convalescing from ownership and still making a notable contribution in the final third. Eddie Howe doesn’t seem to be the same player this season. Guimaraes’s expected pass ownership value has dropped from 0.13 per 90 to 0.11 (still high but not as noticeably), he is attempting 10 fewer passes per 90, delivering them with less accuracy, and growing less for his friends in the cluster.
It’s conceivable that the 26-year-old is doing less work as a starter now that Sandro Tonali has returned from his layoff. If this is certainly the case, the next Guimaraes has not taken up the baton elsewhere. His non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists (npxG+xA) have plummeted from last year’s 0.35 to 0.17, which is a surprise when the set of chances he’s developing for his teammates can be reduced to half. None of this is to say that Guimaraes wouldn’t still be reliable for many teams in the league. It’s just not the ownership powerhouse it used to be a year ago.
Guimaraes, next up, is doing less with the ball but his coach will be the first to point out that he is no longer the same player when ownership does not pass through him. “I think Bruno Guimaraes is a little more complex in terms of where he plays,” Howe stated that day, “because I think he has natural strengths, he gravitates towards the ball and always wants to be with it, and that’s his biggest strength. Playing with him without the ball is different for him.”
Newcastle are not yet at the level where they seriously believe whether or not Guimaraes belongs in their most powerful eleven. The most productive model of Newcastle has at its center the most productive model of Guimaraes. On the other hand, the progress through Howe should no longer be ignored, as Wednesday’s midfield of Tonali, Sean Longstaff and Joelinton showed the aggression that serves as their catalyst. Chelsea were impressed long before Guimaraes entered the field. If you take the lessons from midweek and apply them on Saturday afternoon, it could be a tough afternoon for Arsenal.
Spurs vs. Aston Villa: What about Emery’s protection?
If there was one statistic that could ever make you doubt whether Aston Villa could repeat the top heroics of the 2024-25 season, it definitely had something to do with their defence. Unai Emery’s men had given up 1.56 npxG depending on the game on their way to a four-goal goal that came despite the 61 goals they conceded. There is a reason why they are so enamored of Emiliano Martínez at Villa Ground and the last season he had is to live up to his “world number one” name. The best José Sa avoided more goals than the Argentine’s 8.42. That statistic is something of a double-edged sword. Given his constituent, we can be pretty sure there was a bad fluke in Martinez’s numbers. Likewise, David Raya, Ederson or Alisson generally don’t have this goals avoided metric. Their defenses aren’t asking them to make as many saves.
The same seems to be happening with Villa this season. Martinez is being asked to make 16 percent fewer saves per 90 than he used to in 2023-24 and the component of those efforts is collapsing. Through the first nine games, the better Liverpool have given up more npxG than Villa’s 0.83. It may be a bit of a sample size, but it’s a bigger setback than Manchester Town have had this season or in most cases. Their natural defensive performances don’t look splendid so far (11 conceded in nine games), but the shots taken by Everton’s Dwight McNeil and Wolves’ Matheus Cunha don’t generally lead to goals as often as they did this. The season owes more to some wonderful efforts than Villa’s mistakes. There are signs that this is one of those aspects that will prevent the Spurs from facing them throughout the season.
Because? In part, Villa has marked some of his most competitive dispositions without the ball. Disputing teams put their combatants offside as often as in Emery’s final season, and the traps set by Pau Torres and others were generally extremely effective. However, if this higher order was breached, the combatants would find themselves with a high chance of shooting. I don’t agree, it’s a wonder that Villa have given up an xG per shot of 0.136, one of the best in the Premier League in 2023-24. That has especially decreased in the frequency with which Villa catches combatants offside, from 4.4 per game to 2.6, still the best for the five European leagues, although not surprisingly.
Is this because Villa’s midfield setup has changed? You’ll definitely want to see why a group with Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara could be prone to pressing, relying on their engine room to dominate the opponent. If Youri Tielemans is overtaken at the top, he will not regain his rhythm. Agenda depth may also go some way to explaining this. Villa’s team is not private, they may not have the funds to perform poorly in the Premier League, Champions League and EFL Cup. That was obvious when they simply sat down at Manchester United’s consultation at the Villa Ground. Proceed madam, don’t give us anything, they might as well have said.
Recreational circumstances also come into the equation. When Villa had to chase an equalizer, the defensive order shuffled, catching Wolves five times after they came from a goal down to win 3-1. One could suspect, on the other hand, that the 4-0 defeat they suffered against Tottenham did not drop Emery’s thoughts in the preseason. His team can’t afford to miss out the same way Pape Matar Sarr did to them last season. With the changes they have made for the summer, that may not be the case.
Manchester United vs. Chelsea: Van Nistelrooy makes the Amorim album?
Will there be much to say about Ruud van Nistelrooy’s four-game flirtation with the Manchester United bench? Surely not anymore. Ruben Amorim will no doubt have a noticeable level at times at Used Trafford this weekend, but he will already have his own ideas about how he unites this team into a machine and elegance that he loves to show off. The question that arises is to what extent the person in charge of managing the store for the last three games tries to implement that method.
Furthermore, the football government’s decision over the summer to retain Erik ten Hag robbed Amorim of a pre-season to put his ideas into practice. It also probably lowered the limit on what Manchester United will have achieved this season. With great air and 38 control training matches, possibly sneaking into control 4 would have been an opportunity. Through the speed with which the impeccable director accomplishes the task, almost a third of the season will be inside the can. Nothing that has happened so far suggests that United have as big a run as it will take to build a seven-level gap to fourth place.
This next season could be more modest than a long preseason, analyzing the squad, looking at who fits the machine and who should be eliminated. Why not start so early? Will Van Nistelrooy be able to hit a back three in the version Amorim is expected to implement? He’ll be a great fit for some of his most important defenders: letting Matthijs De Ligt step up as owner, accepting Lisandro Martínez being one of those hybrid left-sided defenders he’s shaping up to be anyway. How exactly does a machine that puts a lot of strength into a dynamic midfielder (often Manuel Ugarte before leaving Porting) hold up against high-level attacks like Chelsea’s? There is a negative pain, discover it.
In the end, you saw that this will not be the case. United looked so remarkable in Van Nistelrooy’s first game as caretaker manager, a 5-2 EFL thrashing of Leicester Town, precisely because they saved things easily. That might be what all parties want from someone who won’t be around for long, take some steam out of the pieces, hang the players where they’re comfortable and trust them to just figure it out. Is it possible that this could backfire spectacularly for a team that is destined to break into Enzo Maresca’s machine? Sure. But that won’t be Van Nistelrooy’s weakness for much longer, will it?
Scroll through to find our predicted standings for this and all of today’s other Premier League matches:
Saturday November 2
Newcastle 1, Arsenal 2
Bournemouth 0, Manchester Town 1
Ipswich 2, Leicester 2
Liverpool 3, Brighton 0
Nottingham Forest 1, West Ham 0
Southampton 0, Everton 0
Wolves 0, Crystal Palace 1
Sunday, November 3
Tottenham 0, Aston Villa 1
Manchester United 1, Chelsea 3
Monday, November 4
Fulham 2, Brentford 2
