The Premier League table might say otherwise, but Tottenham’s start to the new season has been quite impressive. You just need to look at it through the right lens. No team in England’s top flight has more non-penalty expected goals (npxG) than Ange Postecoglou’s, her 21.69 being very close to the two npxG per game mark which is the sign of a truly elite attack.
You don’t need even moderately advanced metrics to see the Spurs’ impressive side. Just look at the goal difference of plus 10 in 11 games. On average, they have been one goal better than their opponents so far this season. According to that statistic, they even surpass their Saturday rival, Manchester City.
No wonder. When they have beaten teams they have defeated them. Manchester United were pulverized at Old Trafford, paying the price for a line that was too high without enough pressure on the ball, as happened to Aston Villa. When the Spurs run into a team that isn’t up to par, things can become dangerous. West Ham and Everton can attest to this. At both ends of the field they are making a difference to be the great entertainers of the league.
One could imagine then that a team that had already amassed four wins by a margin of more than three goals would be at the top of the table, forced to face the Premier League champions with at least serious hopes of getting close to them. in the end. of the season. Instead, it seems eminently plausible that when Tottenham take the field at the Etihad Stadium – often a happy hunting ground even in bad times – they will do so sitting in the bottom half of the Premier League table. Five wins, five losses and one draw in their 11 games, tenth place in the league. That’s enough to put pressure on any Big Six coach, particularly when facing a tough series of games in the coming weeks.
Still, Postecoglou seems to believe in where his team is. “We are definitely a better team than some of our results show,” he said in his pre-match press conference. “That’s what you’re looking for, to progress as a football team. In that context, many of our players have developed more, but in that context our results have not reflected what is an important part of what you do.
“You want to prove your position in the game and our results have not reflected that. I remain very, very optimistic and excited about our progress as a team. We just have to move forward from where we are now to reach that consistency that will be reflected in more results.” positive.”
Unfortunately for Tottenham, they are as consistent in not getting anything out of marginal encounters as they are in winning big when they are on top. Games where their xG was lower than their opponents by 0.03 (Arsenal), 0.04 (Crystal Palace) and 0.07 (Ipswich) resulted in zero points. There’s a big dose of football in Spurs’ early-season results.
Likewise, not all of that is because the opposition got lucky. Sammie Szmodics’ overhead kick might have been a once-in-a-season hit (once in a lifetime if you’re feeling tough), but if Brennan Johnson had put his head on the ball, he never would have had a chance. Basic errors at the far post have given Brighton and Palace goals. Cristian Romero’s talent is not in discussion. If he has the temperament of the best defenders in the Premier League (Virgil van Dijk, William Saliba, Ruben Dias) it won’t be a matter of long either.
Spurs would rather have Romero than not, but Postecoglou has said the Argentine “won’t be right” after coming off at half-time in his country’s 2-1 defeat to Paraguay. Micky van de Ven is not expected to return from his hamstring injury until next month. Tottenham have had something at the Etihad in similar circumstances before, Ben Davies and Emerson Royal withstanding Erling Haaland’s artillery attacks to a 3-3 draw. You wouldn’t bet on them doing it again. After all, Radu Dragusin and Davies were destroyed by Galatasaray.
Even when the starting centre-backs return, there is still work to do. Their 0.124 xG per shot allowed is the fifth-worst mark in the Premier League. Tottenham may not concede many shots, but when they allow an opponent to pass, often because their pressure has been passed or because they have given the ball away while trying to build from the back, they leave them in favorable spots.
These unfavorable signs are just as important as the impressive xG given what lies ahead for Spurs. You could reasonably argue that they only have one favorable Premier League game between now and Christmas. Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool and even Fulham will be hoping to punch more holes in the defensive line. The Premier League table is concentrated enough that a win over Ipswich before the international break would have left Spurs third, a more accurate reflection of their performances. Giving a fairly ordinary opponent their first Premier League win in two decades might be an even more accurate reflection of Tottenham’s, well, you know, Spursy-ness.
That is the task Postecoglou must address, a task that is better reflected in the league tables and trophy cases than xG. The latter gives Tottenham reason to approach this pivotal run of games knowing that it can serve as a rallying point for the rest of the season. The Spurs look like a team capable of matching the best in the league. However, if this is not proven to be the case in the coming weeks, questions will be asked of your manager.
Scroll down for our predicted result in this and all other Premier League games this weekend:
Saturday November 23
Leicester 1, Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2, Nottingham Forest 1
Aston Villa 2, Crystal Palace 0
Bournemouth 2, Brighton 2
Everton 0, Brentford 0
Fulham 1, Wolves 2
Manchester City 3, Tottenham 1
Sunday, November 24
Southampton 0, Liverpool 3
Ipswich 0, Manchester United 1
Monday, November 25
Newcastle 1, West Ham 0
