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NFL Nation, ESPN
The NFL’s Week 13 schedule for the 2024 season begins with a big slate of Thanksgiving matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know for all three holiday matchups.
Our NFL Nation reporters give us the biggest takeaways from each game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each contest. ESPN’s research team provides a great statistic to know and a betting nugget for each matchup, while our Football Power Index (FPI) gets into the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X-factors, and three analysts, Kalyn Kahler, Moody, and Walder, give us final scoring picks for each game. Plus, we look at the best moments in each team’s Thanksgiving history.
Let’s start with the Bears and Lions, who will meet for the 20th time on Turkey Day.
Jump into a matchup:
CHI-DET | NYG-DAL | MIA-GB
12:30 pm ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -10 (48.5 outputs/outputs)
Bear story to see: Wide receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 passing yards per target in Weeks 1-10 to averaging 1.9 passing yards per target after the Bears named Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets that came behind the line in practice play against the Packers and Vikings for 96 yards and a touchdown. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, which is a league-high over the past two weeks. Detroit’s defense has allowed 4.3 yards per target on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which is the fourth-fewest in the league, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. -Courtney Cronin
History of the Lions to see: In a short week, can the Lions pull off their first Thanksgiving win since 2016? Although they are off to their best start in 90 years, Detroit will try to limit distractions during the annual Christmas game, as coach Dan Campbell’s message this week was to rest, recover and focus on the job at hand. The Lions have scored 40+ points in three straight home games and will look to continue that pace. “We haven’t won on Thanksgiving in a while, and that’s something we want to change,” quarterback Jared Goff said after Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. –Eric Woodyard
Statistics to know: The Lions will be the seventh team in the last 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving Day as the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Each of the six teams above won their game.
Bold prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having another very good season, allowing 0.9 yards per coverage play in 2024, which is well below the average of 1.2 for outside corners (per Next Gen Stats). -Walder
Injuries: Bears | lions
Fantasy X Factor: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s offensive line ranks 12th in run-block win rate and the team ranks third in rushing attempts per game. As David Montgomery deals with a shoulder injury in a short week, the Lions are expected to lean on Gibbs even more. The Bears’ defensive front ranks 26th in run stop win rate, so Detroit’s running game could have a big day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games, and four of their last five games have been under the total. Read more.
Kahler’s choice: Lions 28, Bears 21
Moody’s Choice: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder’s Choice: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: DET, 76.2% (on an average of 11.0 points)
Thanksgiving Day Souvenir: This is the second most common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the 22 meetings between the Packers and Lions. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving series 11-8, including three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit last won in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Read more.
Required readings of the confrontation: Caleb Williams improves with OC Thomas Brown… Cairo Santos accepts blame for blocking ‘stench’… How the Lions went from perennial losers to betting houses’ worst enemy
4:30 pm ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DAL -4 (37.5 S/U)
History of the giants to see: The Giants arrive staggering and on the brink of implosion. They have lost six straight and players rated their effort as “soft” against the Buccaneers after the bye week. New York has been outscored 148-74 during that stretch and is relying on Tommy DeVito, previously the third-string quarterback, to save them. It’s going to be difficult. DeVito was sacked four times in Sunday’s loss, and the Giants’ offensive line is in shambles at tackle, which won’t help against Micah Parsons & Co. –Jordan Raanan
Cowboy history to see: Can they achieve a winning streak? Can they really win a home game? The Cowboys last won two in a row in Weeks 4 and 5 and have yet to win a game at AT&T Stadium this season. They have trailed by more than 20 points in each of their last six home games, including the playoffs, which is an NFL record. But these are the Giants, coming off an embarrassing performance in Week 12. And the Cowboys have won seven straight games against them at AT&T Stadium. -Todd Archer
Statistics to know: This will be just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a pair of quarterbacks with fewer than 10 career starts will face off on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have played and won in each of those games, with Cooper Rush joining the likes of Tony Romo, Drew Henson and Chad Hutchinson.
Bold prediction: There will be at least 10 total catches in this game. The Cowboys should easily defeat sack magnet DeVito, and the Giants’ pass rush should have an advantage against Dallas’ weak offensive line. -Walder
Injuries: Giants | jeans
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Fantasy X Factor: Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular season games without quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb averaged 12.0 goals and 16.8 fantasy points per game. With Rush under center, he should get a lot of looks, especially since the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The unders are 5-0 when the Giants play teams with a losing record this season. Read more.
Kahler’s choice: Cowboys 17, Giants 12
Moody’s Choice: Cowboys 26, Giants 19
Walder’s Choice: Cowboys 19, Giants 16
FPI prediction: DAL, 52.6% (an average of 1.2 points)
Thanksgiving Day Souvenir: In 1993, Cowboys defensive tackle Leon Lett attempted to recover a blocked winning field goal attempt. The ball was kicked forward by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins at the 2-yard line. Miami connected on their next field goal attempt and won 16-14. Read more.
Required readings of the confrontation: Eli Manning is destined for the Hall of Fame, but when? … Is the Cowboys’ wild victory a springboard to a late playoff run? …Into the Wild Cowboys Win Against Commanders
8:20 pm ET | NBC/Universe/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -3.5 (46.5 S/U)
History of dolphins to see: The Dolphins have not won under coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures below 40 degrees, and temperatures in Green Bay are expected to fall below freezing. McDaniel said his team is well aware of the narrative about their inability to play in cold weather. But Miami is bringing one of the most efficient offenses in the last month to this matchup. No NFL team has scored on a higher percentage of its drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins’ 56.3%. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Packers history to watch: The Packers may have finally solved their red zone problems. They scored touchdowns on all five of their red zone drives (including three scoring runs by Josh Jacobs) in Sunday’s win over the 49ers after ranking 27th in inside-20 touchdown percentage entering the game. Because the Dolphins rank seventh in red zone defense, this Thanksgiving contest could show whether that’s real or a fluke. -Rob Demovsky
Statistics to know: The Packers caused three or more takeaways for the sixth time this season against the 49ers, which is the most in the NFL. They scored 22 points off turnovers, the most in a game since Week 17 of 2022.
Bold prediction: Dolphins surpass Chop Robinson will record two or more sacks. The rookie pass rusher has really been strong lately. In Week 12, he led pass rushers in pass rush win rate for the second consecutive week (42.1%). -Walder
Injuries: Dolphins | packers
Fantasy X Factor: Dolphins running back De’Von Achane. It is crucial in this game that Miami must win, as they look to get back into the AFC playoff race. Why not lean on one of your most dangerous playmakers? Achane has scored 20+ fantasy points in four of his last five games. The Packers defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs this season, making their dual-threat skill set especially valuable. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 8-3 overall and ATS in games where the temperature is 32 degrees or below under coach Matt LaFleur, including the playoffs. Read more.
Kahler’s choice: Packers 28, Dolphins 27
Moody’s Choice: Packers 34, Dolphins 28
Walder’s Choice: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (for an average of 6.5 points)
Thanksgiving Day Souvenir: This is just the third time the Packers have played at home on Thanksgiving Day. The other matchups were a 1923 win over the Hammond Pros and a 2015 loss to the Bears. Against Chicago, Green Bay was limited on fourth-and-goal with 22 seconds left in regulation. Read more.
Required readings of the confrontation: Tyreek Hill’s traffic citations dismissed after officers failed to show… McDaniel hints at ‘tantrum’ to avoid Calais Campbell trade… Jacobs, rush play gives Packers something to rely on
