Jorgen Strand Larsen’s seventh small goal to give Wolverhampton Wanderers supremacy on Sunday will have surprised many, but few expected the score to end there. After all, the winless Wolves faced undefeated reigning champions Manchester Town, whose dominance has been combined with a sense of inevitability that things will partially change; and so it was, to a certain extent.
Josko Gvardiol’s stellar thirty-third little equalizer meant that Town had around a month to find a game winner and with almost 80% of the ball, over 20 shots and a star-studded squad, the percentages surely pleased them. That goal came, at some point, courtesy of an injury-time winner from John Stones, the inevitable result technically achieved. But the difference that has defined them for almost a decade was nowhere to be seen at the Molineux Stadium, instead Pep Guardiola’s side spent the easier part of the month looking downright subdued before the winner arrived.
Town will have outshot Wolves 22-3, posting seven shots in the right direction to the opposition’s two, but their attacking power was nowhere to be found on Sunday. For all their efforts, they managed just 1.6 expected goals, a mediocre result compared to the 0.81 expected goals the Wolves recorded with far fewer goal attempts. It also fits the efficiency they combined against the Wolves: they seemed out of ideas in the middle of the field, passing the ball aimlessly and then taking shots from distance that were never meant to do much damage. .
His inability to generate significant scoring opportunities is not a sovereign flaw either. They lost the expected goal fight in their last two Premier League games, a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United and a 3-2 win over Fulham. The margin of defeat in that statistical split was also evident in both events: Newcastle generated 1.57 xG on 11 shots, better than the 0.91 xG Town recorded on 16 shots, the pace Fulham had 2.6 xG on 11 shots and Town had 1.57 xG from 20 attempts on goal.
Although Town still sit second in the league for expected goals, recent weeks reflect a downward trend and then the fall of famed midfielder Rodri to an ACL injury last year. Guardiola has relied heavily on Mateo Kovacic in his absence, partnering him with Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva in midfield on Sunday. Although the trio were not only responsible for Town’s dull performance against Wolves, they also did nothing to initiate a vigorous attacking reaction following Strand Larsen’s opener. They, like their teammates, gave the unprecedented reminder that the space left by the incomparable Rodri will be very difficult to fill.
However, the city’s problems could be bigger than Rodri’s. The games against Newcastle and Fulham in particular revealed some defensive vulnerabilities which the experience also led to them conceding nine goals in eight league games. Although they still rank in large numbers, allowing their offense to avoid some of their defensive weaknesses, the margins in their victories are narrower. The development, if it continues, will slowly erode the sense of inevitability that has been part of Town’s title-winning package for the entire time Guardiola has been in charge.
They will still have a lot to follow in the name race; After all, they still have one of the best teams in Europe and an elite coach who has a reputation for getting out of trouble with a stroke of tactical skill. The version of the Pueblo that Guardiola and outgoing football director Txiki Begiristain built, however, is surely in its best condition. Players like Ederson, Rodri, Kovacic, Gundogan, Silva, Kevin de Bruyne, Kyle Walker, Manuel Akanji and more are close to 30 or have already reached that milestone, forcing Begiristain’s successor to take the lead in a major rebuild. , without or with Guardiola.
As Arsenal resolve their own issues and Liverpool continue a good start to the year under Arne Slot, it could produce another interesting race for Premier League names in the short term. However, the future poses even bigger questions for the city, which seems to be finally running out of fuel and, one way or another, they will want to give it a chance to reinvent itself as an order of existential crises looms over one of the dominant groups. highs in England.
