With the NFL season approaching Week 12, the playoff race is heating up.
If you’re a fan of a team that currently has a losing record, don’t give up on the season just yet, because plenty of teams have made the playoffs despite having a losing record heading into Week 12. In fact, since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020, 10 teams with a record of .500 or less heading into Week 12 ended up making the playoffs.
Here’s a look at the breakdown of that:
2020: 1 (commanders)
2021: 3 (Raiders, Eagles, 49ers)
2022: 3 (Jaguars, Chargers, Buccaneers)
2023: 3 (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers)
Does any team currently at .500 or below have a chance of making the postseason this year? Let’s go to this week’s playoff projections and find out.
These projections are based on data from Stephen Oh, the numbers expert from SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs a few numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let’s get to the projections heading into Week 12.
AFC Playoff Projection
Here is a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chance of making the playoffs is listed next to them, in parentheses): Colts (21.5%), Bengals (14.5%), Dolphins (13.4%), Jaguars (0.6%), Jets (0.4%), Titans (0.3%), Patriots ( 0.2%), Browns (0.1%), Raiders (0.0%)
Note: The Raiders aren’t eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are nil because the computer has given up on them.
NFC Playoff Projection
Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chance of making the playoffs is listed next to them, in parentheses): 49ers (32.1%), Buccaneers (28.2%), Seahawks (26.8%), Rams (10.2%), Saints (7.1%), Bears (0.7%), Panthers ( 0.3%), Cowboys (0.1%), Giants (0.0%)
Wildcard round projection
FCA
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Ravens in (3) Steelers
(5) Chargers in (4) Jeans
Bye bye: bosses
NFC
(7) Packers in (2) Eagles
(6) Commanders in (3) Cardinals
(5) Vikings on (4) Falcons
Bye: lions
