-
Eric Moody, ESPN
It’s no surprise that the Philadelphia 76ers are being cautious with Joel Embiid after signing him to a three-year, $193 million extension. Embiid is in elite company; Over the past three seasons, he has averaged at least 30 points and 10 rebounds per game. Only six other players in NBA history have had multiple seasons with those numbers.
But before this season, to the frustration of fantasy basketball coaches everywhere, Embiid said in an interview that he may never play back-to-back games again as the team tries to keep him healthy. The 76ers haven’t reached the Conference Finals since 2001, and while fantasy managers who selected Embiid with an early draft pick may be frustrated, none of this is surprising.
Embiid has missed 204 of a possible 637 games over the past eight seasons, not counting his first two seasons, which were missed entirely due to injury. He has never played more than 68 regular-season games in any of his eight seasons. Last season he played 39.
So let’s all take a deep breath, think logically about Embiid, the 76ers, and how things should be handled from a fantasy perspective once he makes his season debut, which is expected to happen Tuesday against the Knicks, following his three …suspension of the game.
Plan accordingly
Even when Embiid returns to the court, we know he will miss many more games this season. The 76ers have 15 more consecutive games on the schedule, for example, and history shows that there is also a chance that the star center will miss more games due to various injuries and ailments, which are somewhat inevitable for a 7-foot, 30-year-old player in the NBA. We also know that the 76ers are a different team without Embiid, relying on a different cast to make up for the 30+ points, 10+ rebounds and 1.5+ blocks missing from the lineup. The good news is that you can plan accordingly.
Who stars when Embiid sits down?
Obviously, Embiid contributes a ton of scoring and rebounding to the 76ers, but there’s one part of his game that often gets overlooked: his free throw production. Despite missing time over the past four seasons, Embiid leads the league with 2,185 free throws made between 2020 and 2024, making him the only player with more than 2,000 in that span.
Why does that matter?
Players who get to the line consistently give their teams easy and reliable points, slow down the game, and put opponents in foul trouble. That’s a huge advantage, especially in close games, where he wears down defenses and creates more scoring opportunities. Last season, the 76ers went 31-8 with Embiid on the court, but struggled going 16-27 without him. Philadelphia’s points per game (109.1) fell when he was away, while opponents’ points per game increased (112.7), a gap that is difficult to make up.
Tyrese Maxey has improved in recent seasons, averaging 26.3 points per game when Embiid sits. He also adds some rebounds and assists per game, however in the short term Maxey will be out of the lineup; A hamstring injury in Wednesday’s loss to the LA Clippers is expected to keep him out for several weeks. Until he returns, keep an eye on Jared McCain, Kyle Lowry and Reggie Jackson for more minutes.
There are two other players available in many ESPN leagues who could see a big boost whenever Embiid misses time: Andre Drummond and Kelly Oubre Jr.
During his time with the Bulls last year, Drummond (20.7% of the roster) scored 14.1 ppg and 17.9 RPG in 10 starts and, during the season, averaged 19.6 ppg and 21.0 rebounds every 40 minutes. At just 31 years old, the 13-year pro still has some gas left in the tank. Having him on your roster in addition to Embiid is a smart strategy if you can make it work; play Embiid when he’s available, turn to Drummond whenever Embiid misses time, just like the Sixers will.
Meanwhile, Oubre (38.6% of the roster) averaged 17.1 points per game in 37 games without Embiid last season, compared to 13.4 points per game when he played. The veteran forward’s scoring presence will be even more important in the short term while Maxey is out.
Should you trade Embiid?
Some fantasy managers might be tempted to trade Embiid, and that’s understandable. It’s been a frustrating start to the season. But anyone who recruited him knew the risk that came with that decision. This is all part of the journey when you have Embiid on your roster. Furthermore, everyone knows the 76ers’ load management strategy, so his trade value has likely decreased.
Instead of settling for less, consider holding on to the big star man. Last season, Embiid recorded 26 games with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds, tying Nikola Jokic for second in the league. And even if his minutes decline this season, a possibility with a capable veteran like Drummond on the roster, Embiid’s value remains high. He scored 1.03 points per minute last season, making him the only player to reach that number since Wilt Chamberlain in 1961-62.
Do you still want to change it?
If you find yourself in a position where you’re willing to trade Embiid at a discount, possibly out of necessity, offering a deal for another struggling star like Tyrese Haliburton or Anthony Edwards is a potential option. This is particularly effective if that star is a better fit for your roster, or if another coach in the league is as frustrated by his disappointing first round as you are with Embiid.
Another option, which rarely works well in fantasy sports, is to trade the star power Embiid offers for quality depth, getting back two solid players in return. Potential targets in that type of scenario could include a combination of Jordan Poole, Jarrett Allen, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Buddy Hield, just to name a few.
