We’re in the late phases of the 2024 NFL regular season, so what that means: Saturday games! Screw the College Football Playoffs, because we have a doubleheader on Saturday in the NFL. The first of them is a possible preview of the playoffs between the Houston Texans and the Kansas Town Chiefs.
The main story surrounding this matchup has been the fitness of Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The two-time NFL MVP suffered a sprained ankle in the Last 15 win over the Cleveland Browns, but he is officially off the surprise docket and able to start in a decreasing month. Even at 13-1, Kansas Town still has the motivation to compete and get the upset win. 1 spot in the AFC and the all-important bye in the first round. The Chiefs can do it with a win on Saturday.
The Texans and Chiefs lead the NFL this season in wins determined by a single owner. Seven of Houston’s nine wins have come in similar games, and another 10 of Kansas Town’s 13 wins have come through a single owner. Let’s break down this particular AFC matchup, but first, here are some tips on how to manage the game:
Odds courtesy of SportsLine Consensus
Chiefs vs. Texans where to follow
Moment: Saturday December 21 | Past: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: GEHA Garden at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas Town)
TV: NBC | Wave: fubo
Practice: CBS Sports App
Odd: Chiefs -3.5, Over/Under 42
Prediction
The Chiefs need to pile on the disagreement. 1 seed in the AFC for the fourth time since Mahomes was first named a full-time starter. Kansas Town could also peg the 2011 Green Bay Packers and 2020 Chiefs as the only reigning Super Bowl champions to start 14-1 or better.
Mahomes’ athleticism and how agile he appears to be may be a key factor, but how he fares compared to the Texans’ defense is probably the matchup to watch. Houston has the disagreement. 4 defense in the league as of this month with 302.4 yards of overall offense allowed during the game. This unit has the lowest glory percentage over opposing quarterbacks (57.7%) and has also recorded the second-most interceptions (16). The secondary allows an NFL-lowest 45% kill rate on throws of five or more yards, future cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter rank first and second in kill ratio allowed this season (minimum 50 goals). When it comes to cross sprinting, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are the only duo in the NFL to record more than 10 sacks each this season.
On the other hand, the Chiefs also have a five-check defense, and CJ Stroud isn’t known for being a street warrior. They lost to the Fresh York Jets on Halloween night and defeated the lowly Jaguars in Jacksonville by just three points in the last 13. Look at his career divided between home games and street games. Stroud averaging 287.8 passing yards per game at home versus 217.1 passing yards on the road is certainly a thing.
Stroud splits
|
Home |
15 |
11-4 |
65.64% |
287.8 |
27 |
9 |
|
Road |
14 |
7-7 |
61.52% |
217.1 |
13 |
5 |
Stroud will have to rely on both of his playmakers if the Texans want to win this game. Joe Mixon has seven games this season with 100 rushing yards and a fast landing, which is associated with Saquon Barkley for many in the NFL as he reaches the round of 16. Alternatively, you are in a hurry for just a landing on the end 3. Video games. Nico Collins disagrees. 2 in the NFL with 94.3 receiving yards per game. He missed five games due to a hamstring injury, but is back to full speed. He had eight passes for 119 yards against the Jaguars in the last 13, after scoring two touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday.
If you give me the hook in 3.5 at Arrowhead, I’ll rip it off. The Texans are 3-0 against the development of their four-end games against teams recently above .500, and the Chiefs are 0-4 against the development of their four-end games at home. I imagine Kansas Town could also be on disenchantment alert.
Projected rating: Texans 21-20
Premium: SportsLine guru Larry Hartstein, who has a 46-30-4 streak in Texans alternatives, has immune his perfect bets for the Chiefs vs. the last 16 matchup. Texans. Hartstein leans down on the general, but who is he backing for protection? Find out right here on SportsLine.
