Break down the Great NBA tank race for Cooper Flagg as the upper lottery positions focuses

Tanking has been one of the predominant themes of 2024-25 NBA season. The Utah Jazz have been fined for violating the participation policy of the league players with some of the most shameless tanks in recent memory. The Philadelphia 76ers have begun to sit in the middle of the season and a race of 10.2 points per game Quentin Grimes with the rare designation of “rest” because I was winning too many games. The Toronto Raptors stopped playing more or less in rooms.

With Cooper Flagg on the line, these teams are more than justified when trying to maximize their lottery probabilities. Now, with less than two remaining weeks in the season, those tank seeds are beginning to bear fruit. While the order will not be officially established until the regular season ends, we can be relatively safe in the probabilities that the best teams will have in the May Lottery. Then, with the great 2025 tanks race, we will conclude, let’s go through what happened and what we can expect in May.

NBA tank career classification

Entering in play on April 3

14 percent

All but three teams have at least 21 victories this season. Those remaining three teams, jazz, magicians and hornets, are all or less. With such a short time, that should make it relatively safe to say that they will be the three worst teams of the league this season and, therefore, they will win 14% probabilities for the general selection number 1. Those probabilities, for the three teams, are identical. The order in which they end, however, still matters because it determines its floor. The team with the worst record cannot choose lower than the fifth. The team with the second record worst can choose as low as sixth, and the team can fall to number 7.

During most of the season, it seemed that the Wizards had the upper sewn slot. On January 31, the Wizards were 6-41 and followed the field for four victories. Since then, however, they have gone 11-18, more or less abandoning the tank in an effort to develop a culture for their young players. Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart’s deadline acquisitions have been quite useful in that regard, and at the same time, Utah has doubled to lose and take an advantage of a single victory for the worst record. Assuming that the Wizards keep trying and Utah maintains their mentality of loss at all costs, that first place, in all likelihood, will go to jazz.

The Hornets, at number 3, have a two -winning cushion in any direction. They are probably not winning many more games with Lamelo Ball for the season, so there is the possibility that Washington passes through them, but it is not as if the Wizards had been good lately. Two victories in the last 11 days of the season are not especially probable, so wait for Charlotte to reach number 3.

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Brad Botkin

The center of the pack

New Orleans, once in dispute for one of those 14%slot, began to win too many games once Zion Williamson became healthy in the middle of the season. The Pelicans largely tolerated that success. Even position No. 4 is quite valuable where they are, and a healthy Williamson means more for their future than any flagg perspective for them. However, once the 76ers began to sneak into them, they disconnected. Williamson and CJ McCollum were discarded for the season, and New Orleans maintains a cushion of two victories in Philadelphia for that number 4. With 12.5%, the Pelicans are just behind the lower three for the best probabilities in Flagg.

That probably limits the 76ers in number 5, which remains an incredible result for the team that all things consider. Philadelphia owes his choice to Oklahoma City if he is outside the first six. Slot No. 5 gives them a 64% probability of maintaining that choice. If they had finished in number 6, those chances would have fallen to about 46%, and in number 7, a miserable 32%. That is why Philadelphia has done everything possible to lose lately. It is not just about getting more likely in Flagg. It is about protecting the very existence of your choice. The 76ers have won only four games since the beginning of February. This is a legendary tank, and will give the 76ers a 10.5% probability in flagg.

The Nets (No. 6) and Raptors (No. 7) were in operation with them for some time, but in the end they could not keep the pace. Brooklyn has greatly continued putting his best players on the floor. The Raptors were talked by a ridiculously easy March calendar despite their late -game alignment pranks. Nets have 25 victories compared to the 23 of Philadelphia. Toronto has 28, so except for anything unexpected in the section, NETs will have the number 6 (9% possibilities in No. 1) and the Raptors will have No. 7 (7.5%).

THE GAME GROUP

Each remaining team is at least mathematically alive for a game post, although ultimately, that does not mean so much for lottery purposes. While a team falls from the lottery if the playoffs are performed, its lottery position is not affected by the game position. In other words, a team that makes the game tournament can have a better lottery slot than one that loses the game tournament if it has a worse record. This was absolutely vital a year ago, when Atlanta, a game team, jumped to No. 1 of No. 10. If the game losers were forced to tragamoneas 11-14, Houston, as the best team to miss the game, would have jumped to number 1 and maintained their choice instead of sending No. 12 to Oklahoma City.

This could arise once again, since there is a real possibility that the number 11 at the West Conference, currently Phoenix with 35 wins, could have a better record than No. 10 at the Eastern Conference, current Early, it is too early in the front on the front on the front with the front with the front in which now, in which now, in which it is said. However, there is a difference that is worth in those slots, since the number 10 has a 3% shot in No. 1, while the number 11 has a 1.8% possibilities.

What we can say relatively safely from there is that San Antonio (32 victories) and Portland (33) will almost surely have slots No. 8 and No. 9 in some order. The difference there is important. Team No. 8 has a 6% possibilities in Flagg, while No. 9 has a 4.5% shot.

The latest slots are relatively low probabilities. No. 12 has a probability of 1.7% in Flagg, number 13 has a 1% probability and number 14 has a 0.5% opportunity in No. 1. In the history of the lottery, no team has obtained selection No. 1 with a spot worse than 11, so mathematics certainly does not favor the unfortunate game losers in these positions. These teams will have to settle for having reached the playoffs unless the lottery gods pull something really unexpected in May.