WTC Final Scenarios: What do India, Australia and South Africa have to do to reach the WTC Final?


With 15 trials remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, several teams are still in competition and no team is assured of a spot in the top two. Here’s how the teams currently compare.

South Africa
Percentage: 59.26, remaining matches: SL (1 home test), Pak (2 home)

South Africa’s comprehensive victory in Durban is one step forward, of the four they need, to secure a place in the WTC final, regardless of other results. If they lose the second Test against Sri Lanka and win both against Pakistan, they would still have a good chance of qualifying at 61.11%, but both Sri Lanka and India could overtake them – Sri Lanka, if they win 2-0 against Australia. , and India, if they win at least three of their remaining four Tests against Australia. Australia can also surpass 61.11 with four wins and a draw, but in that case both India and Sri Lanka would finish below South Africa.

If South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test and drew 1-1 against Pakistan, they would still finish on 61.11, but would be assured of a place in the final as Sri Lanka would only reach 53.85 if they win both Tests against Australia . Therefore, in that case only one from Australia or India can pass through South Africa.

Sri Lanka
Percentage: 50.00, remaining matches: SA (1 away test), Aus (2 at home)

The Durban defeat means Sri Lanka can finish with a maximum of 61.54% if they win the remaining three Tests. That would still guarantee a place in the final, as only India or Australia can finish higher. If they lose one more test and win two, their percentage will drop to 53.85, which would leave them dependent on several other results. Currently, South Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand can exceed 53.85.

New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, remaining matches: English (2 at home)

New Zealand’s poor performance in Christchurch could have ruined any realistic chance of reaching their second WTC final. A 3-0 win in the series against England would have taken them to 64.29%, but this loss means the most they can achieve is 57.14. This could still be enough to finish in the top two, or even at the top of the table, but for this several results would have to be in their favor. For example, if the series between Australia and India ends 1-1, as do South Africa’s two home series and Sri Lanka’s home series against Australia, New Zealand will still top the table at 57.14. If one of those teams clears 57.14, New Zealand could still finish second, but that still leaves them dependent on many other results.

India
Percentage: 61.11, remaining games: Aus (4 out)

India’s emphatic victory in Perth returns them to the top of the WTC points table and keeps their chances of reaching the final at Lord’s next year very alive. To ensure a top-two finish, India still need to beat Australia 4-1 – four wins would lift India to 64.04, which would be more than Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54 if they won the remaining three Tests, and more. than South Africa’s 61.11 if they beat Pakistan 2-0 but did not sweep Sri Lanka. If South Africa also swept Sri Lanka 2-0, it would reach 69.44, meaning India, with four wins in Australia, would be second in the points table.

However, these scenarios rely on other teams maximizing their points. If that doesn’t happen, India could still achieve it with far fewer points. If, for example, you get these results from the next key series:

  • India loses to Australia 2-3
  • New Zealand draws with England 1-1
  • South Africa drew 1-1 at home in the remaining two series, against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
  • Australia drew 0-0 in Sri Lanka

Australia would finish on top with 58.77, but India’s 53.51 would still be good enough for second place, ahead of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). . Therefore, where India ends up also depends on how the other outcomes play out.

Australia
Percentage: 57.69, remaining matches: Ind (4 home tests), SL (2 away)

The defeat in Perth means Australia has a lot to do to finish in the top two without relying on other results. Given that South Africa and Sri Lanka can finish above 61%, Australia needs four wins and a draw in their last six to finish ahead of Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54; In this case, only South Africa, with a maximum of 69.44, was able to finish ahead of them.

If India were to win the current series 3-2, Australia could still finish ahead of them, but only if they sweep the away series against Sri Lanka 2-0. In this case, Australia would finish with 60.53, slightly ahead of India’s 58.77. In that case, they would surely finish in the top two, since only South Africa could surpass that figure.

Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, remaining series: SA (2 away), WI (2 at home)

Pakistan’s home form has shown some recovery, but it is probably too late in this cycle. If they win each of the remaining four events, they would finish with 52.38. In that case, they would still need several results to be in dispute. If, for example, Sri Lanka lose 0-1 in South Africa and draw 1-1 against Australia, India lose 1-2 in Australia and New Zealand lose 1-2 against England, then Pakistan’s 52.38 would be enough for a second place. behind Australia.

England
Percentage: 43.75, remaining matches: New Zealand (2 out)

England’s victory in Christchurch has marginally improved their percentage to 43.75. It will almost certainly not be enough for qualification, although there is a mathematical possibility of finishing second with 48.86 if several other results go well: if India does not get more than 13 points in the remaining matches, with the upper limit being six and 16 respectively for South Africa and Sri Lanka, so England could still finish second behind Australia.

Bangladesh and West Indies They are out of contention for a spot in the top two.

S Rajesh is statistics editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats



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