WTC final scenarios: South Africa ends, but what about India, Australia and Sri Lanka?


South Africa’s thrilling two-wicket win against Pakistan in Centurion has confirmed their place in June’s World Test Championship (WTC) final. That means there is only one place left to decide, with three teams in contention. Here’s a look at what each of India, Australia and Sri Lanka must do to qualify.

India

Percentage: 55.89, remaining games: Aus (2 out)

For India to be sure of qualifying, they need to win the remaining Tests in Melbourne and Sydney. They would then finish with 60.53, which would be more than Australia’s 57.02 even if they won their next two-Test series 2-0 in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s points limit for this cycle is 53.85, a figure they would eventually reach if they swept Australia at home.

If India wins one test and draws the other, it will finish with 57.02; in that case, they could lose second place to Australia, who would finish with 58.77 if they also won both Tests in Sri Lanka. For India to qualify with 57.02, Australia would not need to score more than 16 points in Sri Lanka (one win and one draw).

A win and a loss in Australia would put India at 55.26, leaving them pinning their hopes on Sri Lanka beating Australia by at least a 1-0 margin.

Two ties would leave India with 53.51. Sri Lanka can overcome that with a 2-0 win, while Australia would need at least a win in Sri Lanka to overcome it.

If India draws one test and loses the other, it would finish at 51.75 and be out of the race; In that case, Australia would finish ahead of India even if they lost 2-0 in Sri Lanka.

Australia

Percentage: 58.89, remaining matches: Ind (2 home tests), SL (2 away)

If Australia were to win the Melbourne and Sydney tests against India, they would be confident of qualifying for the WTC final; in that case, he would finish with 57.02 even if he lost 2-0 in Sri Lanka.

A win and a draw against India would leave them ahead of India even if they lost both Tests in Sri Lanka, but then Sri Lanka could overtake Australia with an outright victory.

If Australia were to win one and lose another against India, they would need at least a win in Sri Lanka to stay ahead in the race. The same applies if both Tests against India are drawn.

If they drew one and lost the other against India, they would need two wins in Sri Lanka.

Defeat in both Tests against India would knock Australia out of the competition.

Sri Lanka

Percentage: 45.45, remaining games: Aus (2 at home)

The maximum Sri Lanka can reach is 53.85, if they beat Australia 2-0. For that to be enough to finish in second place, one of two scenarios must play out in the remaining events of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy:

  • Both Melbourne and Sydney produce draws
  • Australia wins one of the two tests at home, while the other is tied.

In any other scenario, Australia or India would finish above 53.85 and eliminate Sri Lanka.

S Rajesh is statistics editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats



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