Week 18. The end of the damn NFL season is here and, man, it came fast. We should be prepared for some incredible playoff games based on the teams competing for the postseason. But first we have to navigate betting in the most difficult betting week of the NFL season.
The last week of the year features a lot of teams that won’t be playing anyone, a couple of teams deeply motivated to win, and a lot of reading between the lines and guessing about what certain coaches will do with their starters and/or key players. .
Us know some things:
The Chiefs secured the number one spot and are resting everyone who matters. They would be slight favorites against Denver in any other week, but the Broncos, who have to win to get in, are big favorites at home against Kansas City as a result.
The Bills are going to play Josh Allen and company in “very, very” few plays since they are locked in at the No. 2 spot. The Patriots may want to win less, considering they are going for the first overall pick, although they already have their franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, so going down here shouldn’t be a problem.
The Texans are reportedly playing their starters even though they are locked in at the No. 4 spot.
The Bengals and Dolphins need to win and get some help to make the postseason. Cincy plays Saturday, so he won’t know his fate early or late, but the Dolphins could fall victim to scoreboard watching if the Broncos win big early. , and also get Aaron Rodgers in what could be his last game with the Jets, or even the last game ever.
Both the Falcons and Buccaneers need to win to have a shot at the NFC South title and Baker Mayfield mentioned wanting to give Mike Evans his 1,000-yard season to keep his streak alive. You need only 85 yards.
The Eagles are stuck at No. 2 and aren’t even going to let Saquon Barkley chase NFL rushing history. His motivation this week is really low against a bad Giants team.
The Rams are starting Jimmy Garoppolo, which means we shouldn’t see many starters. Sean McVay loves to rest players.
The Commanders and Packers are battling for the bottom two spots in the NFC, but we could see Green Bay scoreboard watching and bringing in guys if Washington has a big lead against Dallas.
NFL Week 18 Best Bets
Bengals ML (-125)
Joe Burrow has been the most popular player in football for the last month. He has inserted himself into the MVP discussion (legitimately, I might add) as the Bengals try to advance to the postseason. They play on Saturday and are the first game of the entire week’s schedule, so they cannot be eliminated by kickoff. The Steelers are a good team and will play hard for the division title, but they also expect the Ravens to lose at home as 17.5-point favorites to Cleveland. They have to know they’re probably in trouble here and could wave the white flag on key players (looking at you, TJ Watt) if Cincy gets any sort of decent lead. I don’t think it matters though. The Bengals are going to make us sweat in the playoffs on Sunday because Burrow has ice in his veins. Ja’Marr Chase has clinched the touchdown title, but he’ll probably need 5-6 catches and 75 yards or so to feel good about the triple crown (either Amon-Ra St. Brown would need 14 catches or Justin Jefferson would need 208 yards to catch him in that scenario). Feeling good about a Cincy win here. This looks like it will move towards Cincy, so I would compare prices and bet early.
Mike Evans 94.5+ receiving yards (-120)
Evans has reached the 1,000-yard receiving milestone in his 10 impressive seasons thus far. He needs 85 yards to reach 1,000 this year and tie Jerry Freaking Rice for the most 1,000-yard seasons to begin a career as a starter. And he has a choice matchup against the Saints to do it, with the Bucs installed as 13.5-point home favorites against a very depleted New Orleans team. Todd Bowles was noncommittal about feeding Evans against New Orleans, but Mayfield was a little clearer, saying that winning is what’s important but “if we win, Mike’s going to get the record.” Evans has 45 targets in his last five games. The Saints simply aren’t good on defense right now (or in general), giving up strong games to top targets in blowout losses the past two weeks and a two-game outing to Terry McLaurin the week before. Baker’s Pro Bowl snub this week may lead us to look at some of his Overs as well. You might prefer to look at Evans’ sacks or Evans’ TD scores at any time once those markets emerge. This was the only number I could find at the time of writing this article. But I think it’s a 100-yard day for the future HOF.
Jets (+1.5) vs. Dolphins
Maybe the Jets will and I look stupid here, but I expect a decent game from Rodgers in what could be his last game. Of all the Week 18 matchups, this feels like the biggest “division rival ruins a potential playoff berth for no good reason” matchup. Rodgers won’t want to go bad for the Jets, so we could see him look good against Miami and stay competitive at home. In addition, the Dolphins have to pay attention to the scoreboard, because the Denver game matters to them. If Denver wins, they’re done. And the Broncos are big favorites at home. If word gets out on their bench that the Broncos are 20 points ahead of the Chiefs’ backups (and, by the way, the Chiefs would prefer Denver in the playoffs to the Bengals), they might not do anything against Denver even though just by “accident”. – You could see the Dolphins losing all their energy heading into this matchup. Maybe Mike McDaniel will try to avoid seeing the scoreboard, but I’m sure MetLife Stadium will display it for the entire Dolphins team to see, especially if the Broncos are on.
Seahawks (-6.5) at Rams
This line is obviously included in the news that Jimmy G will start in place of Matthew Stafford, but I’m not sure it firmly encapsulates all of the Rams’ potential decisions in this matchup. Sean McVay hinted that he will do what is best for his team in terms of resting starters, but his track record with resting and key players makes it clear that the Rams could sit everyone. McVay doesn’t play his guys in the preseason and twice, in 2017 and 2023, he rested his guys in the final week with a playoff spot assured, even if the exact spot wasn’t known. The Rams are guaranteed a home playoff game regardless of whether they are the third or fourth seed, and while a win would give them the third seed and a chance to avoid the Vikings or Lions in the first round, I don’t think I’m sure. That McVay values that over the ability to essentially give his players a week off before what will be a massive home game, regardless of the opponent. This line is up four points in the last 24 hours or so and could go up even more as the Seahawks are likely to exhaust their guys and give maximum effort and the Rams kill everyone off.
Panthers (+8) at Falcons
The Panthers were completely torched by the Bucs last week and the Falcons are in desperation mode after losing Sunday night to Jayden Daniels in overtime. Atlanta knows they have to win and will be motivated, but there is also a chance to watch the scoreboard here as the Bucs are heavy favorites over the Saints. Tampa could take a 17-point lead in the first half and the Falcons could quickly deflate. Also, the Panthers aren’t very good and won’t be able to stop Bijan Robinson, but I’m not sure Michael Penix Jr. is going to magically break up this depleted, struggling defense. Additionally, the Falcons may have a difficult time stopping Bryce Young, who is very capable of bursting through the back door at worst. I’m also very interested in Bijan’s accessories when they drop.
