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USMNT’s John Tolkin Takes a Big Risk in His Bundesliga Move: Here’s Why an American Soccer Player Had to Take It



After years of success with the club after passing through the New York Red Bulls academy, left back John Tolkin moves to Holstein Kiel in the Bundesliga. Tolkin helped lead the Red Bulls to an MLS Cup appearance last season and was also a key part of the United States under-23 men’s team that attended the Paris Olympics. But after 114 appearances for the Red Bulls in all competitions during his career, the 22-year-old is embarking on a risky new adventure, and it’s a good thing he does.

Even after defeating Dortmund, Holstein Kiel is 17th in the Bundesliga, just below the bottom of the league on goal difference and in real danger of relegation. They see Tolkin as a piece of the puzzle to improve a defense that has allowed a league-high 43 goals, so they spent a club-record €2.5 million to secure Tolkin’s services. But it’s also a move that could well end with Tolkin playing in the 2. Bundesliga with his future up in the air similar to that of George Bello.

Bello left Atlanta United in 2022 to join an Arminia Bielefeld team that was struggling to stay up in the Bundesliga before being relegated. When he left Major League Soccer, Bello was on the sidelines of the USMNT, but now he is in Austria, having taken a step back as far as the league is concerned and is an opportunity for other players like Tolkin.

Ricardo Pepi is another example of how a move to a team threatened by relegation can go wrong. After moving to FC Augsburg from FC Dallas, Pepi struggled to gain playing time as the club sought to avoid relegation. While he ended up finding a home in the Eredivisie with PSV, that wasn’t until the young striker missed out on a World Cup team. Tolkin has the advantage of not moving directly in a World Cup year, but there are many factors at play when making the jump abroad.

While we are in a time where more Americans than ever are playing abroad, instances of them making more than 40 MLS appearances before making the jump are rare. Players like Weston McKennie and Joe Scally made the jump fairly early, and for established MLS players, their ceiling has been lower than that of younger Americans to move around. Mark McKenzie, Tyler Adams, Matt Turner, Caleb Wiley, James Sands and Gianluca Busio are the only Americans who meet those criteria and are still in a top-five league.

Defining the meaning of success in these moves can be difficult, but coming out of MLS to become a consistent starter for your club is a pretty high bar and only Busio and Adams have achieved it in these leagues. McKenzie might be on his way to Ligue 1, but for everyone else, they either just joined their clubs or have a lot more to do to earn more playing time for the clubs.

There was a time when players like Tim Ream and Clint Dempsey could leave MLS for the biggest stages, but for the vast majority of overseas moves, they have to involve moves to passing leagues or accumulate a fair amount of risk. to be able to reach one of the five best leagues.

Since Holstein Kiel has a chance of avoiding relegation, the risk has a high reward associated with it. Tolkin has the opportunity to become a mainstay in the Bundesliga while increasing his chances of being a regular for the United States men’s national team under Mauricio Pochettino. Antonee Robinson’s backup was starting right back Sergino Dest, but with his ACL injury, Robinson has effectively been operating without a suitable backup.

Given that Robinson has been healthy and playing as one of the best left backs in the world, this has not been a problem, but in longer tournaments, being able to rotate and have different proven options is essential. Part of the reason the United States fell to the Netherlands during the World Cup in Qatar was because they were unable to rotate players during the group stage, and if Tolkin can prove himself, it’s fair to believe he would be a rotation option for spells Robinson sometimes.

However, not everything ends with staying in the Bundesliga, since relegation does not mean that everything is over. Busio has gone through Serie A and Serie B with Venezia, being a regular starter for the team in both divisions. He’s also breaking into the USMNT mix at age 22 and is a good example of where success in MLS can lead after spending significant time with Sporting Kansas City.

Since there is no right way to succeed in Europe and there is no risk-free option, it is about finding the best option for a player. If Holstein Kiel plans to give Tolkin a fair chance to play and trusts himself to help the club avoid relegation, there is no reason for him not to take the leap into the fire. A dynamic left back, at the very least, will be a fun move to keep an eye on.





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