SA vs SL 2024/25, SA vs SL first test match preview

Big picture: two teams on an upward trajectory

 

Sri Lanka’s men are third in the World Test Championship table, with a winning percentage of 55.56, and South Africa are hot on their heels, with 54.17. Both are within striking distance of finishing in the top two, for which there are currently five serious contenders: India, Australia and New Zealand are the other three.

 

This is usually enough to make this tournament worth watching (apparently there are distractions like the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, plus a series between New Zealand and England elsewhere), but there are more layers of dramatic potential here. Sri Lanka, if you remember, is the only Asian team to have beaten South Africa at home in a series, back in 2019. Seven players from this current Sri Lanka team had played a role in that 2-0 sweep.

 

But while the Sri Lanka team from that 2019 tour was held together by hope and kinesiology tape, does this one seem to be moving towards anything? (We ask tentatively, as this is a strange statement for Sri Lankan teams over the last decade.) So far this year, they have won six tests, the most impressive of which was their victory at The Oval. And they have what increasingly looks like a bowling set. Asitha Fernando, Vishwa Fernando and Lahiru Kumara are the likely starters. But they have others like Kasun Rajitha and Milan Rathnayake who have also done well in overseas conditions.

 

Meanwhile, South Africa is on its own upward trajectory. They had sent what amounted to an E team to New Zealand for a drubbing in February, but since then their big dogs back in the XI have won away series in the West Indies and Bangladesh. They’re now starting summer at home, so presumably they’re bursting with confidence. The only downside to all this is that they haven’t particularly liked playing at Kingsmead for the last 15 years. Since the beginning of 2010, they have lost five games compared to the two they won at this venue. While South Africa’s quicks enjoy the extra bounce their home surfaces often offer, coastal stadiums, and this one in particular, tend to play slower and lower in comparison.

 

Additionally, South Africa captain Temba Bavuma has said that they will not be ordering custom-made green jerseys on this tour, which will especially please Sri Lanka’s batsmen. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any bounce or movement. Shukri Conrad, South Africa’s head coach, said he was expecting “a good pace” at Kingsmead. But expect the surface to change especially in recent days. South Africa have some skilled seamers, but their spin attack will be tested here too.

 

forms guide

 

South Africa: WWWDL

 

Sri Lanka: WWWLL (Last five matches completed, most recent first)

 

In the spotlight: Keshav Maharaj and Kamindu Mendis

 

No bowler in this match knows the Kingsmead surface better than Keshav Maharaj. Born in Durban, he has played all his first-class cricket for the KwaZulu Natal Dolphins and averages 21.52 in Tests there. Although he now has 54 Tests on his CV, he has only played three in his hometown. In part, this is due to Covid. But one of those matches was against Sri Lanka, on that 2019 tour, and he took three wickets for 87 runs in that match. It sounds like it wasn’t particularly impressive, but when the opposition plays one of the greatest innings of all time, it’s not terrible. He is also five years into his development and, at 34, should be at his peak in spin bowling. You suspect Maharaj’s performance against the Sri Lankan batsmen will go a long way in determining this series.

 

When will it be Kamindu Mendis Fever dream ending? In eight Tests he has five hundreds, in three different countries, and in September he became the fastest player to make 1000 Tests in 74 years. That 91.27 average has to come down at some point, right? But then people said that about him when he was in England in August. His average then was only in the 80s. Although he is now an all-format player for Sri Lanka, Kamindu’s prowess has been limited to Tests for now: he is only a decent white-ball player, although his ability to bowl with either arm is probably more useful in those formats. Can he take this rocket-powered career start to a whole new continent? In any case, there has never been a Sri Lankan batsman who has been so hot from the start.

 

Team news: Both teams reflect on attack

 

South Africa have to make decisions around their all-rounders and bowlers: should they go with Senuran Muthusamy, whose left-arm spin could come in handy if he spins, or play Gerald Coetzee? There may also be a debate about whether Ryan Rickelton should play.

 

South Africa (possible XI): 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Tristan Stubbs, 4 Temba Bavuma (captain), 5 David Bedingham, 6 Kyle Verreynne (week), 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Wiaan Mulder, 9 Gerald Coetzee/Senuran Muthusamy 9 Keshav Maharaj, 11 Kagiso Rabada

 

Seven Sri Lankan players have been in Durban for at least two weeks and should have a full squad of cricketers to choose from. They have decisions to make on the bowling front. They will probably go for Milan Rathnayake, for the batting value he adds. But do they choose Vishwa Fernando or Lahiru Kumara? Vishwa brings the left-arm angle and has had success in Durban. But Kumara has the pace to cause problems for the batsmen.

 

Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Dimuth Karuanaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Dinesh Chandimal, 4 Angelo Mathews, 5 Kamindu Mendis, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva (captain), 7 Kusal Mendis (wk), 8 Milan Rathnayake, 9 Prabath Jayasuriya, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Lahiru Kumara/Vishwa Fernando

 

Course and conditions: a wet start to the test?

 

There is likely to be some pace and bounce early on, but if the sun beats down on this Kingsmead pitch, expect it to get a little lower and slower. However, sunshine could be in short supply early in this match, with rain forecast for Wednesday and cloudy conditions expected for Thursday.

 

Statistics and curiosities

 

  • Maharaj’s best figures came against Sri Lanka: his 9 for 129 in the first innings at the SSC, in Colombo, in 2018.
  • Kamindu Mendis’ away average so far, in nine innings, is 79.25. Five of those hits came in England, where he averages 53.40, the lowest of any country.
  • In the nine Tests these teams have played since the start of 2015, South Africa have won five and Sri Lanka four. All but two of these tests were conducted in South Africa.
  • If Prabath Jayasuriya gets three wickets in Durban, his 17th Test, he will become the second-fastest bowler to 100 Test wickets, behind George Lohmann, who made his debut in the 19th century. Among players active since 1950, only Yasir Shah has done so in 17 Tests.
  • Lahiru Kumara is also approaching 100 layoffs. He would be the fifth Sri Lankan fast bowler to reach the milestone, behind Chaminda Vaas, Lasith Malinga, Dilhara Fernando and Suranga Lakmal.

 

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