Rockets GM says they don’t want to make a big trade, but the NBA Cup has shown why they might eventually need one

The Houston Rockets have managed their rebuild in the most responsible way possible. They have accumulated draft picks and have done relatively well with them so far. They have pursued veteran free agents, but have always managed to do so with value in mind. They acquired Dillon Brooks when his reputation was in tatters and gave other free agents like Fred VanVleet and Jock Landale team options to maximize their own flexibility. The most important thing is that they have not rushed. General manager Rafael Stone has been pretty direct about it. When the Jimmy Butler rumor cycle began last week, he took to SiriusXM NBA Radio to tell the world that he has no intention of making a blockbuster move anytime soon.

“We like this team. We definitely have no intention of changing anything, and I would be surprised if anything changed this season,” Stone said. “We like where we are. We want to continue to develop our guys, period. Will I listen to other teams? Of course I will, that’s my job. But again, no, there’s no part of me, there’s no part of our decision-making process that suggests we’re looking to do something big now or in the short term.”

It’s a noble sentiment, not exactly unlike Sam Presti’s “we need to finish our breakfast before we start acting like we’re about to do something” quote from about a year ago. Slow, methodical rebuilds tend to be the most effective, and Houston saw firsthand how effective Oklahoma City’s rebuilding approach has been on Saturday, when the Thunder eliminated the Rockets from the championship. NBA Cup. Oklahoma City never rushed. He now has probably the most envious overall roster and asset prospects in basketball. The Rockets are looking for something similar. But Saturday’s loss and Houston’s overall performance in the NBA Cup point to a subtle difference the Rockets need to be aware of: The Thunder have an MVP candidate and they don’t.

That wasn’t the only difference between the Rockets and Thunder on Saturday, but it was the relevant one. In the rock fight to end all rock fights, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander managed to score a huge 32 points in a 111-96 victory. No Rocket even reached 20 against the Thunder. Alperen Sengun did it against the Warriors on Wednesday, but Golden State held Houston to just 91 points in the quarterfinals.

Again, we’re still reasonably early in this Houston rebuild. It’s not fair to draw sweeping conclusions just yet, and the defensive identity the Rockets have cultivated will prove extremely valuable in the long run. But man, they’re having a hard time, especially in the biggest moments. Their 18th offensive ranking is concerning, but remember, Minnesota had a similar statistical profile, defense first, until the Western Conference finals a year ago. The difference was that Minnesota had Anthony Edwards and therefore could at least keep up the offensive pace when necessary. Those Timberwolves ranked 16th in fourth-quarter offense. These Rockets are ranked 25th.

Those are the moments in which an infraction must be judged. The Rockets hover around league average in overall offense, but once the defense locks in, their lack of a singular, top-level shot creator becomes more apparent. These NBA Cup games against the Warriors and Thunder are the closest thing to the playoffs they’ll get during the regular season. Both games were against top five offenses. Both included several days of rest and, more importantly, game planning. And both times, the Rockets struggled to meet their biggest offensive challenge.

That doesn’t mean they never will. Alperen Sengun’s offensive numbers are down across the board this season, but he flirted with an All-Star berth a season ago and is still in his fourth season. The circumstances here are not in his favor. Unless you’re Nikola Jokic, centers who serve as offensive centers are quite reliant on proper spacing to avoid doubles and create cutting lanes for smart teammates. Houston ranks 18th in 3-point attempts and 28th in 3-point percentage.

Resolving the long-term shooting guard position internally could resolve some of these issues. In a perfect world, Jalen Green, who has the athleticism and shooting profile of a traditional, high-usage All-Star, would consistently become that player. That hasn’t happened yet. If he finally does it? Excellent. But? Perhaps an eventual transition to Reed Sheppard, the third overall pick in last year’s draft and one of the best shooting prospects in recent memory, could open up the floor enough for Sengun to fully become the offensive centerpiece Houston needs. . Maybe Sheppard will eventually get there himself.

The general point here is that Houston isn’t necessarily crazy for preferring to let things develop organically for the time being. They have the youth and assets to make a move when the right one presents itself.

But these NBA Cup games have shown us, relatively convincingly, what these Rockets are in hugely influential moments right now. The defense is ready for prime time. The offense is not. Without significant internal growth in the very near future or a sizable trade of some sort, this team simply won’t be able to score enough to meaningfully compete for the championship in 2025. If the Rockets are content to eat breakfast before thinking about lunch Well, that’s not the worst result. But it’s something the Rockets must prepare for. Even if the path of responsible rebuilding is the right one, it tends to present many bumps and bruises along the way.