After spending the last 24 hours talking to Santa, I have good news for everyone: I’ve been informed that each and every one of you has made the nice list this year, so you’ll be receiving my Week 16 picks as a gift! Is it the best gift ever? No, because the best gift of all time would be for Hallmark Channel to send me a personalized copy of the Chiefs Christmas movie, but receiving picks is the second best gift of all time.
Speaking of the Chiefs Christmas movie, I finally got around to watching ‘A Holiday Touchdown: A Chiefs Love Story’ and let me say, it was really good. Now I am convinced that the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl.
If you’re wondering if you can trust my opinion of the movie, the answer is that I’ve seen a lot more Hallmark Christmas movies than I care to admit, so yes, you can trust my opinion.
I’m not going to give away the plot, but I will say that I knew it was going to be a good movie the moment Catrick Mahomes appeared on the screen.
Speaking of Catrick Mahomes, the Chiefs didn’t need to call him up to replace Patrick Mahomes because despite dealing with an ankle injury, he looked like himself in Kansas City’s win over the Texans on Saturday. Then, in Saturday night’s game, the Ravens clinched a playoff berth by beating their AFC North rivals, the Steelers.
Now we head to Sunday. Let’s go to the selections.
NFL Week 16 Picks
Philadelphia (12-2) at Washington (9-5)
Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox)
The last time these two teams met was in Week 11, although Commanders fans probably don’t remember much from that game because I assume they’ve already repressed the memory of it. And if you haven’t, then you’ve been having nightmares for the past five weeks about Saquon Barkley, who tore his way through Washington’s defense for 146 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia’s 26-18 victory. My therapist tells me that repressing memories isn’t good for you, but if your only options are repression or having nightmares about Saquon Barkley, then you might want to go with repression.
Not only did the Eagles win that Week 11 game, they won the next game after that and the next game after that and the next game after that… And you know what, I’m going to get right to the point: The Eagles didn’t They have lost one game since September. I’m not sure if you have a calendar in front of you, but September was so long ago that it was a time when people still thought the Saints were good. HA HA HA.
Anyway, let’s go back to September: the Eagles closed out the month with a loss to the Buccaneers that dropped them to 2-2. The Eagles then moved on to their Week 5 bye, where I guess they made some kind of deal with the devil because they HAVE NOT LOST SINCE. The most impressive fact during their 10-game winning streak is that they have held nine of their 10 opponents to 20 points or less. On average, the Eagles are giving up just 15.1 points per game during their winning streak. Nobody can score them. Nobody can even move the ball on them.
There have only been NINE games all season in the NFL in which a team was held to less than 165 yards and the Eagles have been responsible for THREE of them. In Week 15, the Steelers totaled just 163 yards against the Eagles defense.
If you can’t score against them, maybe you can beat the Eagles in a low-scoring matchup? Mistaken. This team is among the top eight in points scored. They will mark you and you won’t be able to keep up because the defense is too good. I’m starting to think there’s no way to beat this team, which might explain why they’ve won 10 games in a row.
I’m still waiting for the winning streak to end, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen.
I thought if someone slowed down Saquon Barkley the Eagles might lose, but the Steelers did and still got beat by two touchdowns. I thought the Eagles might implode down the stretch like they did last season, but clearly that’s not going to happen. I thought AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts might fight each other, but now they’re best friends.
The only team that can stop the Eagles is the Eagles.
With a win in this game, the Eagles will clinch the NFC East, so they might as well get the jerseys ready.
The choice: Eagles 27-20 over Commanders
Minnesota (12-2) at Seattle (8-6)
Sunday, 4:05 pm Eastern Time (Fox)
I’m not sure what’s on Mike Macdonald’s Christmas list, but I’m guessing he’d really like Santa to deliver a healthy knee for Geno Smith, because if he’s banged up, the Seahawks have no chance of winning the NFC West. . I don’t think Santa provides healthy knees, because that would be weird, but maybe he’ll make an exception in this case, because the Seahawks are in desperation mode.
Of course, even if Smith can play on Sunday, that might not matter, because he doesn’t play defense and that’s Seattle’s biggest problem right now. The Seahawks have had serious trouble stopping the streak and if you watched them play Sunday night in Week 15, you got a glimpse of just how bad things are. Basically, the Packers just gave the ball to Josh Jacobs on their first two drives and that almost instantly led to two touchdowns.
I’m guessing the Vikings will do something similar, so if Aaron Jones is on your fantasy team, you can go ahead and start celebrating your fantasy championship now, because you’re going to win this week (unless the other team has Josh Allen ). and Saquon Barkley, then you’re all set.)
Even if Geno is banged up, there is one thing that should make the Seahawks feel good about this game and that is the fact that the Vikings have struggled in outdoor games since the calendar turned to November. Let’s take a look at his last three:
Week 10: in Jacksonville. The Vikings barely win 12-7 in a game where Sam Darnold throws three interceptions.
Week 11: in Tennessee. The Vikings win 23-13 against a bad Titans team.
Week 12: in Chicago. The Vikings go to overtime in a 30-27 win over the Bears.
There are three victories by an average of six points. I think we know what that means: Vikings at six.
The pick (If Geno Smith plays): Vikings 30-24 over Seahawks
The pick (If Geno Smith doesn’t play): Vikings 30-13 over Seahawks
NFL Week 16 Picks: Everything else
Falcons 27-17 over Giants
Lions 31-20 over Bears
Bills 31-17 on Patriots
Bengals 27-20 over Browns
Colts 19-16 over Titans
Rams 23-16 over Jets
Cardinals 24-17 over Panthers
Jaguars 20-16 over Raiders
49ers 26-23 over Dolphins
Buccaneers 31-24 over Cowboys
Packers 34-13 over Saints
Last week
Best choice: Last week I predicted the Rams would beat the 49ers on Thursday night and guess what happened? The Rams shocked the 49ers on Thursday night. Although my prediction was correct, I have to admit that there was one thing I didn’t see coming and that was that De’Vondre Cambell LEFT the team in the middle of the game. The 49ers told Campbell to come out on the field in the third quarter, but Campbell decided he didn’t want to play, so he went to the locker room. Cambell has now been suspended three games by the team, which makes no sense because they should send him a thank you card that includes a giant Christmas bonus. The 49ers offense stifled any chance of making the playoffs with an ugly performance against the Rams, but NO ONE is talking about it, because we’ve all been distracted by what Campbell is doing. That’s the true meaning of taking one for the team.
Worst choice: If there’s one thing I’ve learned in all my years making picks, it’s that you should never pick the Panthers to win because nothing good ever happens when you do. Well, guess what I did in week 15? I picked the Panthers to beat the Cowboys and as soon as I made the pick, I knew it was going to be wrong. The Panthers are 1-0 when playing outside the United States this year, but 2-11 when playing inside the United States. What that means is that if this game had been played in Barbados, it would have made sense to pick the Panthers, because they never lose in foreign countries, but this game wasn’t played in Barbados, it was played in Charlotte, which is basically the opposite of Barbados. I will never pick the Panthers to win again.
Finally, if you’re still reading, you might be wondering which teams I’ve picked well this year and here’s the answer:
My best pick records by team (directly up): Chiefs (12-2), Raiders (12-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (12 consecutive correct picks)
My worst team pick record (straight up): Bengals (6-8), Ravens (6-8), Steelers (6-8)
Longest losing streak: Invoices (Two consecutive incorrect choices)
All other teams are somewhere in between.
Finally, happy holidays everyone, and don’t forget, if you need a last-minute gift idea, get everyone in your family a DVD copy of “Fast Five.” They’ll love it and my royalty check will go up a lot next month, so it’s a win-win.
And remember, next week’s picks will be out on Christmas Eve (Tuesday, December 24)! So don’t forget to keep an eye out for them.
Registration of selections
Directly in week 15: 12-4
SU in general: 144-80
Against the spread in week 15: 10-6
ETA in general: 114-106-4
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if you’re not doing one of those things, you’re probably in the middle of a Hallmark Christmas movie marathon.
