NFL Week 11 Picks, Odds, Spreads and Best Bets: Texans Destroy Cowboys, Jameis Winston Wins Revenge Game

We went 4-1 on our first five picks, but 1-4 against the spread. The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Cincinnati Bengals by a single point, the San Francisco 49ers struggled with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons made fools of themselves against the New Orleans Saints, and we were caught on the hook in the Detroit Lions’ victory. about the Houston Texans. . At least the Los Angeles Chargers helped us against the Tennessee Titans.

This week in the NFL, Russell Wilson tests his perfect 3-0 record against the rival Ravens, Jameis Winston returns to New Orleans to play his former team and Patrick Mahomes battles Josh Allen in arguably the AFC’s best rivalry. at the moment. If you haven’t already, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can win money too. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, I credit the CBS Sports investigative team for making me look smart.

All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

ATS record for top-five picks: 23-26-1
Overall ATS record: 67-82-3
Direct record: 95-57

Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox and fubo, try it for free)

The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week, which wasn’t a huge surprise considering Chicago’s offense has been one of the worst in the league so far. They haven’t scored a touchdown since October 27th!

The Bears have lost three straight games, while the Packers just came off their bye. In fact, Green Bay has won its last 10 games against Chicago, winning by an average of 12.7 points per game. In my opinion, the Packers are a borderline contender and this is a great opportunity to build some momentum with a road win. The Bears haven’t scored a touchdown in 23 consecutive offensive drives, so I’ll attribute the 5.5 points to Jordan Love and Co.

The choice: Packers -5.5
Projected score: Packers 24-17

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Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Some NFL bettors automatically avoid massive lines, but I’m almost drawn to them. Sometimes I’ll make the big underdog the best bet, while other times I’ll beat the favorite. I think this is a situation where we beat the favorite.

This is the largest number we’ve seen in the NFL this year, but for good reason. Mac Jones returns to start in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence, and is 0-9 SU and ATS in his last nine starts as a road underdog. Yes, taking a -14 team is scary, but the Lions own the best point differential in the NFL this year (+113). Also, did you know that double-digit favorites are 4-0 ATS this season? And I made three of those top double-digit favorite bets! That includes leading the Lions to 11.5 coverage against the Titans earlier this year. Detroit won that game by 38.

The choice: lions -14
Projected score: Lions 35-14

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Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox and fubo, try it for free)

Jameis Winston Revenge Game! You know the former Saint will be motivated to beat his former team in New Orleans, and he even had the bye week to prepare. The Saints actually opened as favorites in this matchup, but the number has shifted towards the Browns.

Darren Rizzi had a great first win against the Falcons, but needed Younghoe Koo to miss what seemed like 100 field goals to win that game by just three points. If the Browns can contain the suddenly explosive Márquez Valdés-Scantling and Winston can take care of the ball, Cleveland should win this game. Look for Myles Garrett to make a difference.

The choice: Browns -1
Projected score: Browns 23-21

Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I was impressed by the Dolphins defense on Monday night. They kept Matthew Stafford’s offense out of the end zone entirely and forced two turnovers in a 23-15 victory. The Los Angeles Rams went 0 for 3 in the red zone and didn’t even convert a third down until the second half. Again, we’re talking about Sean McVay’s offense, which features Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams.

Next up for Miami is Vegas, which ranks fourth in the NFL in total offense at 280.7 yards per game. The Raiders haven’t won a game since September! I think Miami’s upset win over Los Angeles could serve as a turning point, especially if Anthony Weaver’s defense continues to play like this.

The choice: Dolphins -7.5
Projected score: Dolphins 22-13

Monday, 8:15 pm ET (ESPN and fubo, try it for free)

The Texans have struggled over the past few weeks and Nico Collins’ absence is one of the reasons. However, the star receiver is expected to return this week after missing the last five games due to a hamstring injury. Houston is 4-1 with Collins in the lineup and 2-3 without him.

The 7.5 point difference is not insignificant, but the Cowboys are 0-4 SU and ATS at home. They were defeated by 28 points in their first game without Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush completed 13 of 23 passes for 45 yards in his first start this season!

The Texans, on the other hand, need to get something going. They lost by eight points to the New York Jets on Halloween and then blew a 23-7 lead to the Lions in prime time last week. This is a great opportunity for CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.

The choice: Texans -7.5
Projected score: Texans 26-13