It’s hard to believe that we have already reached the halfway point of the season, but here we are. Nine weeks of packed football are in the books, and it’s a mad race down the stretch as some teams try to get closer to a playoff spot.
For us, we will be looking to finish the year strong after a series of up and down bets during the first half. Last week, we enjoyed ATS wins with the Falcons and Commanders within my five blocks of the week, but Cleveland, Denver and Kansas City were the ones who couldn’t keep up with the number.
As we move into Week 10, let’s reveal the picks, starting with my five blocks of the week.
record of 2024
ATS Locks of the Week: 22-23
ETA: 59-76-3
ml: 84-54
All NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get into the game.
- Thursday, 8:15 pm ET (Prime Video)
We have a big outing in Week 10 with an AFC North fight in Baltimore. These two division rivals went to overtime the last time they met, but I don’t think it will be as close this time. The Ravens arguably look like the class of the AFC, with Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level. Jackson has historically dominated the Bengals in his career with a 9-1 record and scored 20 total touchdowns with just five career turnovers. Baltimore is also 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings against Cincy. While the Bengals own a 4-0 ATS road record this season, when you break it down, it’s not all that impressive outside of a cover in Kansas City in Week 2. Those other ATS road wins came against the Panthers, Giants, and brown.
Projected score: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
the selections: Ravens -6
- Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)
This is strictly a play revolving around the firing of Saints head coach Dennis Allen this week. Teams typically respond well after a coach is fired, so we’ll follow that trend, particularly with the field goal hook. The Falcons are also a little banged up coming into this matchup on offense, as top receiver Drake London left last week’s matchup due to a hip injury. This season, London has six touchdown receptions. He could diminish Atlanta’s scoring ability and keep us within the number if he is limited or out entirely.
Projected score: Halcones 23, Santos 20
the selections: Saints +3.5
No team has been hotter than the Washington Commanders, as they are 7-1-1 ATS on the year, including a 4-0 ATS mark at home. While this team seems poised to win the NFC East with Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels, this could be a point where they make a mistake. They face a Steelers team that just came off their bye and has been playing strong football. Defensively, they have a pass rusher who should disrupt Daniels, and their offense has come alive with Russell Wilson under center. Where Pittsburgh has thrived this year has been in the second half of games, where they have pulled away from their opponents, possessing a +76 point differential. Meanwhile, Washington ranks 21st in the league in second-half points allowed (12.7) this season. That, coupled with the fact that Pittsburgh owns a 4-0 SU and ATS record in their last four games after the bye, has them pulling off the upset.
Projected score: Steelers 27, Commanders 24
the selections: Steelers +3
- Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (Fox, fubo)
It’s time to start looking at the Chargers as a playoff team. Jim Harbaugh has Los Angeles playing at a high level and Justin Herbert has started to warm up under center. The sportsbooks are certainly giving them their due by making them two-point favorites at home against Tennessee, and I don’t see them having any problem writing this game off relatively easily. The Titans have the worst ATS in the league, 1-7. record this season and are averaging just 4.7 yards per play (28th in the NFL). That depleted offense is now tasked with facing a Los Angeles defense that allows 12.6 points per game (second fewest in the NFL). The Chargers are 5-1 ATS favorites this season and I expect that number to improve after Week 10.
Projected score: Chargers 23, Titans 13
the selections: Chargers -7.5
- Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, fubo)
As we’ve noted here before, there really isn’t a number that can dissuade us from backing Detroit. Sure, hooking the field goal on the road isn’t ideal, but the Lions have shown they can overcome high hurdles and are 7-1 ATS on the season. That includes a 4-0 ATS mark on the road, with three of those ATS wins coming as a road favorite. Detroit hasn’t faltered under the primetime lights either. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 8-0 ATS in primetime games, while the Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games on “Sunday Night Football.” Meanwhile, the Texans are allowing the most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, so Amon-Ra St. Brown’s anytime touchdown support on DraftKings could also be worth it.
Projected score: Lions 30, Texans 24
the selections: Lions -3.5
Rest of the group
Giants at Panthers (in Munich)
Projected score: Giants 26, Panthers 20
the selections: Giants -5
Bills on the Colts
Projected score: Bills 30, Colts 23
the selections: Bills -4
Broncos at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17
the selections: Bosses -8
Vikings on jaguars
Projected score: Vikings 28, Jaguars 23
the selections: Vikings -4
Patriots vs bears
Projected score: Bears 27, Patriots 20
the selections: Bears -6.5
49ers at Buccaneers
Projected score: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 21
the selections: 49ers -5
Jets in Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Jets 23
the selections: Cardinals -1
Eagles in jeans
Projected score: Eagles 30, Cowboys 20
the selections: Eagles -7.5
Dolphins in Rams
Projected score: Dolphins 26, Carneros 23
the selections: Dolphins +2.5
