The Final 11 marks an old month for the NFL, especially among contending teams: For the first time, a regular-season slate will come with three more games in which each and every team enters with at least seven wins. All three matchups (Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas Town Chiefs vs. Buffalo Expenses) are shaping up to be achievable playoff pushes.
Which of the six most powerful clubs facing each other in the last 11 is best positioned to tour the area? Here, we grade them across projected win totals and Super Bowl chances, plus give them the biggest reasons to consider, or lack of certainty, their shot at hoisting the ultimate trophy.
Word: Projected earnings totals courtesy of SportsLine, rounded up or down to a fair list. The possibility of a Super Bowl also comes courtesy of SportsLine simulations.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Document: 9-0 | Projected wins: 14 | Tremendous Bowl: 17.8%
- Reasons to be skeptical: They succeed almost entirely on the margins. Which is a testament to his command of composure, but still makes sustained luck difficult. It’s been almost two years since Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were consistently explosive instead of heels.
- Reason to consider: They are the bosses. Week Mahomes and Co. probably aren’t crushing teams, they almost never fold when it comes to the max. That’s why no one is even remotely surprised to be working for a treble. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is also tenacious.
2. Buffalo Expenses
Document: 8-2 | Projected wins: 13 | Tremendous Bowl: 16.4%
- Reasons to be skeptical: Josh Allen can play superhero games, but for a long time? Indeed, during the week the Costes have enjoyed a good amount of complementary football in the past, they are now nursing injuries to their entire rebuilt squad of talents, including greens Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman.
- Reason to consider: Despite all the hype about Allen missing his two biggest cross-court goals during the offseason, the offense has been rocking at an affordable price. Sean McDermott’s defense also checks in as a top-10 scoring unit. In truth, the skill seems to allow for a deep run.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Document: 7-3 | Projected wins: 12 | Tremendous Bowl: 13.7%
- Reasons to be skeptical: Ignore Lamar Jackson’s disappointing playoff roster. Their defensive back has been almost entirely absent in the past without coordinator Mike Macdonald. Only five teams give up more yards and only seven give up more things.
- Reason to consider: Lamar Jackson. Playoff roster aside, the reigning MVP is easily not out of line for copy as the NFL’s most decorated playmaker, combining his trademark electric energy with the best aerial accuracy of his career. Add in the hard-hitting Derrick Henry and their offense is a gimmick.
4. Washington Commanders
Document: 7-3 | Projected wins: 12 | Tremendous Bowl: 6.5%
- Reasons to be skeptical: Even with the excellent debut of rookie Jayden Daniels, the Commanders were slightly one-dimensional, with Terry McLaurin serving as the only stable threat on the perimeter. Daniels has yet to reach the playoff level and Washington’s schedule has been slightly favorable.
- Reason to consider: It’s dry to overstate Daniels’ charm when he’s in competition. His dual-threat smoothness has instilled a confidence in this club that has not been distinguished for years. Dan Quinn’s defense has also become a corner, checking in at a borderline top 10 even with celebrity acquisition Marshon Lattimore injured.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Document: 7-2 | Projected wins: 12 | Tremendous Bowl: 4.2%
- Reasons to be skeptical: His five-fight winning streak has most commonly come at the expense of battered and inferior fighters, allowing a once-derided crusader to slip away to a ceremonial dinner with replacement-level quarterbacks. Educator Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts have also shown poor decision-making.
- Reason to consider: Hurts and Sirianni are said to have put the nasty offense of late 2023 and early 2024 behind them, fueling Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to four straight 28-point performances. That ability is unrivaled. And Vic Fangio’s protection has an official physical advantage.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Document: 7-2 | Projected wins: 11 | Tremendous Bowl: 3.6%
- Reasons to be skeptical: We’re just three games into Russell Wilson’s journey as the new QB1, and once he’s developed the passing proficiency, his luck on the field is largely due to a throw-it-and-pray attitude. Meanwhile, its talent pool has proven to experience a slight boom or bust over the year.
- Reason to consider: As maligned as he may have been following an unsightly Denver Broncos tenure, Wilson turns out to have rediscovered his well-worn play-action method, giving the Steelers a big punch they’ve been missing for years. Mike Tomlin’s defense also remains feisty as always, especially up front.
