The race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC took on a whole new life last week. The Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles are no longer fighting for home-field advantage (and the only bye) in the NFC playoffs, but the Minnesota Vikings have entered the ring.
The Lions, Eagles and Vikings are all 12-2 with three games left, and they could all finish with the same record. The NFC North title is also at stake with the Lions and Vikings tied for first place, although Detroit holds the tiebreaker based on its win over Minnesota in Week 7. The teams meet again in the final week of the season .
While the Lions and Vikings battle for the NFC North title, the Eagles are one road win away from clinching the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference, guaranteeing two home games in the playoffs. With second place all but secured, Philadelphia can go about its business and put pressure on Detroit and Minnesota to win.
How will the race for home field advantage play out? Which of the three contenders has the advantage? Breaking down each team, we take a look at the remaining schedule for each and where the contenders stand in terms of tiebreakers entering Week 16.
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Week 16: Sunday, December 22 |
in bears |
4-10 |
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Week 17: Monday, December 30 |
in the 49ers |
6-8 |
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Week 18 – To be determined |
against vikings |
12-2 |
- Conference registration: 8-1
- Record against common opponents: 5-1 (vs. Eagles), 9-0 (vs. Vikings)
- Victory Strength: .512
- Schedule strength: .536
The Lions currently own the number one seed in the conference and still have home-field advantage, even with their loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Detroit still has the advantage in conference record, record against common opponents, strength of victory and strength of schedule over Philadelphia, meaning the Eagles would need the Lions to lose one more game (while Philadelphia wins) to earn the No. . 1.
That’s the situation with the Lions and the Eagles. And now what happens to the Vikings? Detroit has an edge over Minnesota for the NFC North lead based on their head-to-head win, but these two teams will meet again in Week 18. A Lions win over the Vikings will clinch the NFC North and No. 1. seed for the Lions (if they win).
If the Vikings and Lions have the same record heading into Week 18 and the Vikings win, Minnesota takes the division title over Detroit. If Minnesota is one game behind Detroit heading into that game and wins, the two will be tied in overall record and division record. Detroit would still win the division based on having a better conference record than Minnesota, as both teams play NFC opponents the rest of the way (the Lions currently have a one-game lead over the Vikings in conference record).
Detroit still has home-field advantage over Philadelphia and Minnesota. However, the Lions’ margin for error was over.
- Conference registration: 7-2
- Record against common opponents: 4-1 (against Lions), 4-1 (against Vikings)
- Victory Strength: .440
- Schedule strength: .454
The Eagles have the easiest path to finishing 15-2, even with three division opponents remaining. Even if Philadelphia finishes 15-2, it will need some help to secure the top spot.
Detroit holds the conference record tiebreaker over Philadelphia, so the Eagles need a Lions loss in the final three games anyway. The Eagles can match the Lions in record against common opponents, as they have one more game against the Cowboys. Without the best record in the conference, it won’t matter. The same goes for the strength of the victory and the strength of the schedule, in which the Lions have a clear advantage.
Philadelphia just needs Detroit to lose one game and win. What about Minnesota? If the Vikings win and finish 15-2, the Eagles and Vikings will finish with the same conference record (assuming the Eagles win). They will also finish with the same record against common opponents as the Eagles (the Eagles have the Giants left and the Vikings have the Packers as common opponents).
The strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. The Eagles currently have the advantage right now, but winning games against the NFC East will hurt them down the stretch. The Vikings are expected to overtake the Eagles if they win, as the combined record of their remaining opponents is 30-12.
The Eagles will have to win and count on the Vikings losing a game before beating the Lions in Week 18. This is certainly realistic.
Philadelphia only needs one win to take second place. That’s not so bad either.
Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
|
Week 16: Sunday, December 22 |
on the Seahawks |
8-6 |
|
Week 17: Sunday, December 29 |
against packers |
10-4 |
|
Week 18 – To be determined |
in lions |
12-2 |
- Conference registration: 7-2
- Record against common opponents: 8-1 (against Lions), 4-1 (against Águilas)
- Victory Strength: .387
- Schedule strength: .434
The Vikings have an easy path to first place: win. Minnesota should get the top spot if the Vikings can pull it off. The Vikings will have beaten the Lions and have the tiebreaker no matter what the Lions do heading into their Week 18 matchup, while the strength of the opponents they beat should put them above the Eagles in strength of the tiebreaker victory.
If Minnesota wins, the Vikings will clinch the NFC North and first place. The Vikings still have the toughest path to winning, as their remaining opponents have a combined record of 30-12, which includes games in Seattle and Detroit.
Minnesota controls its own destiny for first place, as does Detroit. The Week 18 matchup could be decisive in the NFC.
