Our panel (Mike Tannenbaum, Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, Lindsey Thiry, Seth Walder, Dan Graziano, Garden Yates, Jeremy Fowler, Matt Bowen, Jason Reid, Dan Orlovsky, Ben Solak, Kalyn Kahler, Aaron Schatz and I) compiled an inventory of our zenith MVP contenders, which served as the basis for our consensus top five contenders.
Quarterbacks, according to the usual, dominate the record. However, applicants tend to be younger and the intrigue remains intact. Can a rookie win the award for first speed in more than six decades? Will the winner of last season repeat? And whose insurance is rising and falling a third of the way through this NFL season? All of that, and more, is made clear as we summarize where the MVP race currently stands.
Bounce to:
Rule 5 | Who just ignored?
Secure | sick insurance
heavy query
Transmission probabilities: +550
2024 statistics: 1,529 passing yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs, 69.4 QBR (403 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Jackson has wasted a negligible pace in stating his case for a third MVP. The Ravens’ 0-2 start wasn’t good for their candidacy, but they’ve been on a roll ever since. In 4 instant wins, Jackson is fourth in finishing touches rate (70.3%), 0.33 in QBR (76.1), second in dropback yards (9.1), has thrown 8 touchdowns instead of an interception and has pressed time for 236 .yards: maximum among quarterbacks. In Jackson’s two-year-old video games, wins over the Bengals and Commanders, he racked up a combined 766 yards passing and rushing.
Keep in mind that Jackson has done all of this against a notable show. His Moment 1 performance against the defending champion Chiefs shouldn’t be left out, as he was literally inches away from sending the game into overtime in the final seconds. And against the Commanders, Jackson recorded 323 passing yards compared to a defense that used to allow 199 with moderate entry into the game.
Let everyone sound good looking.
Transmission probabilities: +325
2024 statistics: 1,235 passing yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs, 57.8 QBR (83 rushing yards)
You’re considered a great player to be in the future with career lows in touchdown passes and QBR (and a career high in interceptions), yet you’re still considered a solid MVP candidate. Those realities speak to Mahomes’ greatness, as does the fact that he has wanted his team to start 5-0 despite its offensive imperfections.
The argument for Mahomes’ 0.33 MVP isn’t essentially about his numbers. He ranks 16th in QBR (57.8), ranks second with six interceptions, and ranks 11th in passing yards per game (247.0). But where would the Chiefs be without him? Kansas Town’s supporting cast was already in doubt, and has been further depleted by injuries to receiver Rashee Rice (knee) and running back Isiah Pacheco (fibula). Rice, who is out for the rest of the season, is the only Chiefs player at the 50-yard receiving zenith.
Mahomes has managed to go beyond all that and keep the Chiefs undefeated.
Transmission probabilities: +1200
2024 statistics: 1,404 passing yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 73.7 QBR (322 rushing yards, 4 TDs)
Don’t be tempted to believe that it’s common for rookies to be in the mix of the MVP conversation, even if it takes place in the second season of this very season. This is unusual, and it’s one of the simplest ways to explain what Daniels is doing in Washington.
The Commanders are 4-2 and at the top of the NFC East, and Daniels is the biggest explanation why. He leads the NFL in finishing touches percentage (75.3%), which wouldn’t be so ruthless if he played without aggression. However, Daniels could also be fourth in yards per attempt (8.5), suggesting that the offense almost never completely slows down to account for his inexperience.
Belichick to McAfee: Jayden Daniels has had “an excellent start to the season”
Bill Belichick joins Pat McAfee in praising Jayden Daniels’ start to his rookie season after the Commander’s win over the Browns.
Transmission probabilities: +650
2024 statistics: 1,577 passing yards, 10 TDs, 4 INTs, 66.3 QBR (75 rushing yards)
Stroud made a splash as a rookie late in the season when he won MVP votes. Some of his numbers this season don’t seem to be as eye-catching as those in 2023; He is moderately sick in yards per game and yards per attempt. However, Stroud is making good points in several ways. His final touch rate has increased more than four points to 68.3%, and he has a future of landing 28 passes (he had 23 last season).
What matters most is that the Texans are off to a fast 5-1 start, making Stroud the clear leader of a team that could be a Super Bowl contender.
There are a few issues that threaten to undermine Stroud: He’s trending higher in interceptions (he has 4 compared to 5 all of last season) and the motion coverage issues haven’t been fully resolved as Stroud is in the future. by 45. The next layoffs will be laid off 38 times in 2023.
Transmission probabilities: +650
2024 statistics: 1,160 passing yards, 10 TDs, 0 INTs, 79.3 QBR (178 rushing yards, 3 TDs)
In a variety of techniques, Allen manages to combine his favorite season so far. His league-leading QBR is the best possible in his profession. And his touchdown/interception ratio is the most efficient in the NFL. The dearth of interceptions, in particular, indicates a notable expansion in Allen’s game after he threw a career-high 18 last season.
Notably, Allen is doing this despite the evolution of the Expenses roster. Receiver Stefon Diggs, previously Allen’s top target, is now catching passes from Stroud in Houston, and Buffalo added assistance for Allen in this era by buying and selling big-name WR Amari Cooper. Furthermore, according to the ordinary, he is leading an offensive that lacks a good level of work. And yet, confusing statistics prove that the Expenses are some of the NFL’s zenith offenses: Buffalo ranks fourth in aggregate expected offensive problems (44.57), a credit to Allen’s overall influence.
just ignored
Sam Darnold, quarterback, Minnesota Vikings (+1800)
The Darnold trade is one of the NFL’s favorite storylines for 2024, and it’s also boosting some of the favorite teams. The Vikings, at 5-0, have benefited from Darnold’s power and ability to avoid a host of mistakes. He recently peaked at 5th in yards per attempt (8.1) and touchdown passes (11) and played some of the most efficient football in his profession.
Derrick Henry, running back, Baltimore Ravens (+5000)
The youthful source has found his way to Baltimore, where Henry, 30, has grown to catch up on the clock, averaging a league-high 117.3 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per lift. Already the active leader in career rushing yards, Henry has a league-best eight career rushing scores.
Brock Purdy, quarterback, San Francisco 49ers (+1300)
The 49ers’ surprising record helps them continue to grow, but Purdy’s influence has been no less detectable. He is on pace to accumulate more than 4,600 passing yards in the upcoming 4,280 season. And he’s top 5 in QBR (70.3) as well as yards per try (8.8).
In addition, he received the first 10 votes: Packers QB Jordan Love, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, Steelers LB TJ Watt, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Texans WR Nico Collins, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Lions Edge Aidan Hutchinson, Packers S Xavier McKinney, Lions QB Jared Goff, Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Chiefs DT Chris Jones, 49ers RB Jordan Mason, Falcons QB Kirk Cousins, 49ers LB Fred Warner
Whose security will be the next six weeks?
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers: Love’s knee strike at time 1 at first felt love and may put him out of work. He returned after missing two games and passed for 871 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has key opportunities to resolve his case with games against the Texans and Lions in the next three weeks.
Whose safety will be sick for the next six weeks?
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert has been, in the absence of a top deal, a bit of a regular. The numbers don’t always tell the whole story, but Herbert’s are telling: 27th in yards per game (163), 24th in yards per try (6.5) and 23rd in QBR (49.5). Herbert is in the future for professional minimums in different sections.
What if we were our first rookie MVP since Jim Brown in 1957?
This will require a lot of signature moments from Daniels, something he’s already proven he’s capable of doing. His Moment 3 performance on “Monday Night Football” got people talking when he threw two touchdowns, ran for another and completed a remarkable 91% of his passes – the highest touch rate possible in a single game by a rookie. His talent as a playmaker makes a performance like this possible at any pace. He’ll probably draft a few more to win an MVP case, but we definitely can’t rule him out.
