Can you believe it’s already Week 11? It seems like the season has just begun, but here we are with fewer games ahead than behind. Where does the time go?
Last week, I hit two of my three mainstays, and Sam Darnold fell miserably short of his 1.5 touchdown passes and instead threw three interceptions…including two of them in the end zone. What can I say? If you win something, you lose something.
But today is a new day, with new accessories, new lines and new opportunities in front of us. Let’s dive into the accessories that stand out from Week 11! — Daniel Dopp
All odds at time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback Accessories
5:29
Should Jared Goff be left out of the MVP race?
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky debate whether Lions QB Jared Goff should be in the MVP race after a five-interception performance against the Texans.
Jared Goff MORE THAN 1.5 passing TDs (-125)
Dopp: Goff is coming off his worst game of the season in which he threw five interceptions. It wasn’t pretty in Houston, as the Texans defense harassed him early and often.
The Jaguars defense hasn’t been as good against quarterbacks, recording just 21 sacks on the season (eighth-fewest in the league) and just five interceptions (seventh-fewest). The Lions will surely plan to use their RBs in this one. And while that could mean potential touchdowns in the running game, you better believe Lions OC Ben Johnson plans to get Goff back on track with some easy passes in the short game. In the last seven games, Goff has six outings with at least two touchdowns, with the rainy outdoor game at Lambeau Field being the lone exception. On top of that, Jacksonville has allowed 19 touchdown passes this year, fourth most in the NFL.
In what looks like a bounce-back game at home against a struggling Jacksonville team, I expect to see the MVP-level Goff we’ve seen for most of the season.
By the way, notice how this Goff touchdown prop leans into Jake Bates’ extra point prop (you’ll see it below). The important thing is the correlation when we analyze possible combinations in the same game!
Mac Jones UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (+100)
Dopp: You might be saying to yourself: this doesn’t seem like it correlates well with the other two accessories. I mean, the Jaguars are big underdogs and probably have to throw the ball a lot, which would mean taking control on pass attempts here.
But not so fast, my friend.
First of all, Jones doesn’t inspire much confidence. To throw the ball a lot, you have to stay on the field a good amount of time, and the possibility of the Lions dominating positional time through their running game is a serious threat to that possibility. Add in the Mac offense’s propensity for short or three-point drives and you start to see why not hitting this line is a real possibility.
And while the Jags have been playing catch-up in most of their games, Trevor Lawrence has only reached this line twice in nine games, and the Lions have only allowed one QB to surpass 34.5 pass attempts in the entire season. season. In fact, the Jags have failed to get a first down on 41.5% of their drives this season, third-worst in the NFL.
While it may seem like the game script might dictate a lot of shots, the Jags will have to make a lot of successful downs to maintain the volume needed to surpass this mark, something I don’t see happening given their inability to get first downs. It’s always possible that the Jaguars surprise us, but I follow the trends.
Accessories for runners
2:15
Field Yates: Christian McCaffrey is a top 5 RB every week
Stephania Bell and Field Yates discuss Christian McCaffrey’s return in Week 10 and what it means for the rest of the fantasy season.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 74.5 rushing yards, scores rushing touchdowns, 49ers win (+190)
Liz Loza: McCaffrey made his 2024 debut last Sunday, recording 19 touches for more than 100 yards from scrimmage. That’s it, it’s time to get back to action.
McCaffrey may have looked a little rusty at running back, averaging 3.0 YPC in Week 10, but I’m sure he’ll return to form against an achievable Seahawks run defense that has allowed him the fourth Highest YPC with 4.8. To this point, CMC has recorded at least 75 rushing yards in each of its four meetings as a 49er against Seattle. In fact, he has cleared 100 rushing yards in each of those efforts.
Additionally, the Seahawks have given up eight touchdowns to RBs in nine games played so far, making McCaffery (who led the position in total touchdowns in 2023) a solid bet to find money. McCaffrey’s ability to elevate the offense cannot be understated, particularly in matchups against Seattle. Interestingly, San Francisco is 4-0 against the Seahawks in the regular season (5-0, including playoffs) since CMC was traded to the 49ers on October 20, 2022. I’m all in on this special bet for a special player!
Nick Chubb OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
Crockery: Chubb has a sub-3.0 YPC, but many didn’t even think it was possible for him to return from a second catastrophic knee injury. While he’s put up 37.7 rushing yards per game and hasn’t broken the previous line yet, I’m betting Chubb will continue to be outstanding. With three competitions under his belt and fresh off a break, the 28-year-old should navigate the Big Easy.
The New Orleans Saints have allowed 5.2 YPC (2nd highest) and over 113 rushing yards per game (6th most) to opposing RBs. Given Chubb’s workhorse status, volume shouldn’t be an issue, as he’s gotten at least 15 carries in consecutive games. That kind of volume, combined with a soft matchup and Jameis Winston’s ability to stretch the field, Chubb (who averaged more than 85 rushing yards per outing from 2019-2023) hopes to record his best effort of the season on Sunday.
tight end fittings
0:51
Why Travis Kelce’s fantasy season got better
Liz Loza breaks down the fantasy resurgence of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
Travis Kelce OVER 69.5 receiving yards (+100) and 1+ TD (+140)
Crockery: Remember at the beginning of the season when the fantasy community was collectively wringing its hands over Kelce’s lack of production? My how times have changed.
Rashee Rice’s injury in Week 4 forced Kelce to become more involved. Since then, the star tight end has averaged an NFL-best 8.7 receptions per game and commanded nearly a third of the Chiefs’ target share. That increase in volume has naturally created an increase in production, as Kelce has averaged nearly 72 receiving yards per game (erasing the previous line in four of his last six outings) during that span.
He will travel to Orchard Park in Week 11. Interestingly, Kelce has scored or surpassed 80 receiving yards in each of his last seven games against the Buffalo Bills, including postseason outings. I like the odds of both occurring in what is projected to be a close game on Sunday.
Kicker accessories (yes, kicker)
Jake Bates MORE than 3.5 extra points (+130)
Dopp: All of my props this week are from the same game, when the Detroit Lions take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Motor City. You can play these accessories alone or put them in a combination of the same game (SGP) for some more fun.
I specifically wanted to address this game, not because of my Lions fandom, but because of the outrageous 14-point differential, the largest so far in the 2024 NFL season.
There has to be some good value we can find in this one, and I’m going with Mr. Clutch himself. After making two 50+ yard field goals last week to lead the Lions to an 8-1 start, Bates’ prop line for XP comes in at 3.5. It’s a considerable number, don’t get me wrong, but I love this one.
Bates has four games this season with four or more extra points. In fact, in every game the Lions have scored at least 30 points, Bates has had at least four extra points. Given the two-touchdown lead Detroit is gaining, I’m very comfortable with this Lions offense getting back on track after pulling out a win in Houston, where Jared Goff threw five (!) interceptions.
At press time, the game total is 46.5, which should favor a Lions offense that averages 30 points per game. This high-scoring offense now features a Jags team that has allowed 30 touchdowns in 10 games so far this year, an average of three per game.
Call me an optimist in believing that the Lions, against a Mac Jones-led Jaguars team, should dominate time of possession and score in bunches. Plus, they’re at home and coming off a close win in which the offense didn’t play particularly well, which is why this feels like a big “right game” for Detroit.
That’s why I’m picking former UFL superstar Jake Bates to beat 3.5 extra points in Week 11.
