Four teams remain in the hunt to make it to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. On Saturday, the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans in the divisional round to advance to their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs will welcome a familiar foe to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium from the Buffalo Bills, who beat the Baltimore Ravens at home on Sunday. The line for the AFC Championship Game opened at -1 on Sunday night and has continued to move toward Kansas City.
In the NFC, the Washington Commanders pulled off an upset over the top-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday thanks to a spectacular performance by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders will travel to face their NFC East rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, who advanced to the championship game with a victory over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles opened as six-point favorites over the Commanders and the line has dropped half a point since then to -5.5.
Below is where our team believes values can be found on the initial line before they begin to move as the week progresses.
All probabilities are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Chiefs -1.5 over Bills
Last week: Ravens (+1) against Beerus. Closed line in Invoices +1.5. The Bills won 27-25.
You have to give Buffalo credit for taking advantage of Baltimore’s countless mistakes, but can you really count on another +3 turnover differential to get past the AFC Championship game? The Bills were outscored by 143 total yards against a sloppy Ravens team that finished the game with 25 points, 416 total yards and a 70% third down conversion rate. Hanging up 30+ points on the road was definitely a possibility for Baltimore. And let’s not forget the referees here, who tend to side with Mahomes. Disagree? Since Kansas City committed 11 penalties for 120 yards against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV (2021), the Chiefs have been penalized 30 fewer times for 222 fewer yards than their opponents in their next 11 playoff appearances. I’ll leave it here.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Commanders +5.5
Last week: 6-point advance: Chiefs -1.5 | Commanders +14.5. The Chiefs won 23-14. The commanders won 45-31.
I feel like this line is overrating the Eagles by a point or two. The Commanders have already beaten the Eagles once this season. Jayden Daniels is playing better football than Jalen Hurts. In the divisional round, the Eagles put together another 200+ yard rushing performance and were +2 in turnover margin against the Rams and still didn’t cover. They almost lost the game in regulation time. I picked Philadelphia to win the NFC and I’ll stick with it, but I feel like this line should respect the Commanders a little more than it does.
Seth Walder’s first bet: Bills ML +105
Last week: Commanders-Lions more than 55.5 total points. The commanders won 45-31.
The Bills are simply the best team.
Excluding Week 18 (when both teams were byes), the Bills have a huge EPA advantage per dropback: .26 to .15. In other words, every 10 Bills pass plays are worth one point more than every 10 Chiefs pass plays. And the running game? Exactly the same story: 0.07 for Buffalo, -0.03 for the Chiefs.
Yes, Buffalo’s passing defense has been significantly worse lately, although throughout the year these two teams have been more or less the same. And that’s less important than the offense, which is more stable week in and week out than the defense. To root for the Chiefs, you have to believe in some kind of ethereal postseason push from Mahomes that I’m just not going to buy over a Bills team that has proven its superiority throughout this year.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Chiefs ML (-120) vs. Bills
Last week: Commanders (+8.5) against Leones. Closed line in Commanders +8.5. The commanders won 45-31.
Fueled by their ability to deliver wins in exciting fashion, the Chiefs have mastered the art of thriving under pressure. Patrick Mahomes’ crunch-time brilliance, combined with Andy Reid’s tactical genius, has routinely led Kansas City to victory, even when they have been outplayed or seemingly outplayed. Their battle-tested playoff experience and championship DNA provide a mental advantage against the Bills, who have yet to exorcise their postseason demons against Kansas City. The Chiefs should punch their ticket to another Super Bowl.
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