Jimmy Butler’s six-season tenure with the Miami Heat appears to be coming to an end. Butler, who led Miami to the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023, was suspended by the team on Friday for “conduct detrimental to the team,” a day after indicating to the Heat that he would like to be traded.
Butler, who entered training camp this season with a “no shenanigans” statement, had scored just 18 combined points in the last two games after missing the previous five due to illness. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on December 10 that the Heat were listening to offers for Butler and then on December 25 that Butler preferred a trade away from Miami.
The situation escalated to such a point that after Thursday’s loss to the Indiana Pacers, Butler said he wanted to find his joy again on the court. When asked if he could do that in Miami, he responded “probably not.”
ESPN experts Tim Bontemps, Bobby Marks, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst break down how the situation between the six-time All-Star and the franchise he’s played for since 2019 got to this point, why a trade might not be so easy as it seems. looks like and what Butler could bring to a contender.
How did Pat Riley go from promising not to trade Butler to a seven-game suspension when the Heat are now listening to trade offers?
Butler’s tactics to force Miami’s action and reverse its stance appear to be working in the short term. The Heat did not fully articulate all the components of what they felt was his “disruptive conduct” that led to the suspension, but Butler clearly wanted to be traded and took steps to get the Heat to the same conclusion. His play lackluster the last two games after missing five because illness was likely on the list. In the short term, this move by Butler will cost him $2.35 million in salary, but he could eventually recoup some or all of that money through a planned grievance from the players union. — windhorst
How have Riley and the Heat handled similar situations in the past?
Riley has never been afraid to say no to star players or walk away from them when he doesn’t want to pay them. Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning and Dwyane Wade all left to sign elsewhere at various times. He traded Shaquille O’Neal and Shawn Marion, among others, when he wanted to turn the franchise around. Now Butler will be on that list. Riley has always been able to acquire significant talent and that reputation has always encouraged him to play hard. — windhorst
This isn’t the first time Butler’s tenure with a team has ended badly. What happened in Chicago, Minnesota and Philadelphia?
Each of those situations was different. Chicago refused to give Butler a max contract and traded him to Minnesota for a package of young players and draft picks.
Minnesota’s situation was very similar to this: Butler was unhappy with his contract and requested a trade. But there was one big difference: Butler had just turned 29, not 35. He was ultimately sent to the 76ers in exchange for Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless and a second-round pick.
Then, after one season in Philadelphia, the 76ers essentially opted to pay a combination of Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson and Al Horford instead of Butler and sent him to Miami in a sign-and-trade during the summer of 2019. Bontemps
Can the 7-game suspension be extended? Have previous players been suspended for that long for similar confrontations?
The suspension includes Saturday’s home game against the Utah Jazz and the upcoming six-game trip. It’s clear that Riley is sending a message that he doesn’t want Butler on the team right now. The unknown is what will happen when the suspension ends before Miami’s Jan. 19 home game against the San Antonio Spurs.
Unless Butler is deemed to violate the disruptive conduct policy in his contract from the moment the suspension begins, Miami cannot extend the suspension to include more games. Because the suspension is with the team and not the NBA, the Heat will not receive any luxury tax savings.
Butler is not the only player in the last three seasons suspended by his team. In November 2022, the Brooklyn Nets suspended guard Kyrie Irving eight games for being “unfit to be associated” with the team after the guard would not say whether he held anti-Semitic beliefs. — brands
How much will Butler be fined? Can you file a complaint?
Butler will be fined $336,543 for each of the seven games missed. The amount is equal to 1/145 of his $48.8 million salary, for a total of about $2.4 million. Butler has 30 days to file a complaint and the fine amount will remain in an escrow account until the situation is resolved. The complaint process could take up to a year. The NBA Players Association issued a statement Friday night saying the suspension was excessive and inappropriate.
Which teams could actually negotiate for him?
Butler asking to be traded and the Heat now listening to offers doesn’t change the challenges of finding a new home for the former All-Star. The combination of Butler’s $48.8 million salary this season and nearly a third of teams not being allowed to recoup more salary in a trade makes any potential deal complicated.
Three of the four teams on Butler’s preferred list (the Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns) would need to change a quarter of their roster. The Suns would need Bradley Beal to waive his no-trade clause. Sources told ESPN that the Heat do not want to recoup the $110 million owed to Beal and that Phoenix would need to find a third team. The Warriors and Mavericks would likely need to find a third or fourth team to redirect some of the sent contracts.
The Heat are also not allowed to recoup more salary because they are a striker team. — brands
Could Butler help a contender this season and in the future (if he re-signed with that team)?
That depends on how much Butler benefits from rediscovering the joy of basketball with another team. Butler’s 17.6 scoring average is his lowest since 2013-14, the season before he won the Most Improved Player award and was named an All-Star for the first time, but there is reason to believe Butler has more to offer. give in other places.
Butler’s 21% usage rate is substantially down from 24% last season. At the same time, Butler is scoring more efficiently. His .648 true shooting percentage would be the best of his NBA career, well ahead of the 2023-24 season. And Butler’s 58% two-point shooting is easily a career-high, suggesting his scoring slump has more to do with being selective than an inability to create shots.
Not only are Butler’s peripheral stats still solid, but we have ample evidence that “Playoff Jimmy” plays his best when the stakes are high. During Butler’s four playoff runs in Miami, before missing the Heat’s 2024 first-round loss to the Boston Celtics due to a sprained MCL, he led the NBA with 12.4 wins per game. WARP (Winnings Above Replacement Player) Metric during that period.
During the regular season, Butler was just sixth in total WARP during the corresponding seasons. He produced 3.7 more WARP in the playoffs than we expected based on his regular season performance. Only Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray had a better playoff performance than Butler from 2020 to 2023.
At some point, Butler’s age (35) will undoubtedly take its toll, which explains Miami’s reluctance to offer him a max extension. Over the next three seasons, my SCHOENE projection system predicts Butler will decline by about three wins in terms of regular season value based on the development of similar players at the same age. Although Butler’s 2025-26 projection still places him among the top 20 players in the NBA, by 2027-28 that projection drops to 45th. — Kevin Pelton
What kind of extension is Butler looking for? What is the most likely outcome before the trade deadline?
Because of the league’s 38-and-over rule, the maximum extension Miami could sign Butler is two years, $112.6 million. That would replace his $52.4 million player option for next season with a new salary starting at $54.1 million. The second year would pay Butler $58.5 million when he is 37 years old.
If Butler were traded, he would be eligible to sign a two-year, $111 million extension with his new team.
A trade demand from Butler and now a suspension doesn’t mean the Heat have a mandate to make a trade. If Miami doesn’t receive an offer they like, they can let Butler walk in free agency if he declines his player option, or work together on a trade.
Butler, who will turn 36 in September, doesn’t fit the roster schedule of the Brooklyn Nets, the only team projected to have more than $40 million in cap space. — Brands
Are we sure he will be traded?
No. The way things played out with Paul George last season with the LA Clippers is a model for how this situation could evolve in the coming months.
The long-standing NBA paradigm in these situations is that the team with a disgruntled player like Butler “has to get something” and trade him somewhere. But that was in a previous financial reality in which the league existed.
Under this much more restrictive collective bargaining agreement, the NBA is operating in an environment much closer to a hard cap than before. So if the process of getting something done in a deal requires a team to recoup a long-term negative salary, that can cause real problems for a club trying to outgrow that deal in the future. That’s doubly true for the Heat, who remain one of the most desirable destinations for players in the league and want to have as much flexibility to acquire more high-level talent in the future.
That’s one of several reasons why the Heat, according to sources, are reluctant to recoup long-term money in a Butler trade. Coupled with trade restrictions that have made it difficult for big salaries to move across the league, sources are far from convinced that a deal is guaranteed in the next month. — Bontemps