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David Purdum, ESPN writer
Nevada sportsbooks have been accepting bets since 1949, but they had never experienced anything like this last September.
On Sundays in September at the Las Vegas sportsbooks, bettors shook their heads in disgust, while behind the scenes, in the risk rooms, the bookmakers looked at their computer screens and then at each other with smiles. They were timid and asked, “Is this really happening?”
By the end of September, Nevada sportsbooks had earned $80.9 million, the most in a single month in the state’s sports betting history.
“Between Weeks 2 and 3, we won almost every game,” said Jay Kornegay, longtime boss of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. “I don’t remember ever saying that.”
Big surprises in the NFL were behind the record-breaking month. Twenty-six NFL favorites lost outright in September, the most in the first month of the season since 2002. The biggest seed on the board was defeated in each of the first three weeks, and teams that were favored by six or more points finished 9 -13 direct and a dismal 3-19 against the spread for the month. The touchdown favorites had never had a consecutive losing record for a month in the Super Bowl era, until September 2024.
“Between Weeks 2 and 3, we won almost every game. I don’t remember ever saying that.”
Jay Kornegay, director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas
Football, both the NFL and NCAA, accounted for $55.8 million of September’s record victory. It was the second most lucrative month for football, behind only November 2020 ($56.0 million). Sportsbooks said that while they had a good start to the college football season, the NFL was the catalyst for the record-breaking month.
NFL favorites went 27-37 against the spread for the month, their worst coverage performance since September 2022, but outright upsets did the most damage to the betting public. The Cincinnati Bengals lost to the New England Patriots as 7.5-point favorites in Week 1. The Baltimore Ravens lost to the Las Vegas Raiders as 8.5-point favorites in Week 2. The Bengals lost to the Washington Commanders as favorites by 6.5 points in Week 3, and the New York Jets lost to the Denver Broncos as 8-point favorites in Week 4.
“When you start seeing the favorites lose outright, it compounds the losses for recreational players,” Kornegay said, “because not only do they love playing against the perceived best team, but they also love to make fun of them and take advantage of them. And when Eliminating them directly is beneficial for the bookmaker.”
Surprises also took their toll in survivor contests that require players to pick an outright winner each week. The Las Vegas Circa casino survivor contest attracted 14,266 entries at $1,000 each, producing a grand prize of $14.2 million. At the end of September, only 460 entries remained alive.
“I wish everyone would still be in this,” Derek Stevens, owner of Circa, told ESPN. “I want people to get value, feel like they’ve had a lot of fun and satisfaction out of it. When you get knocked out in Week 1 or 2, your emotion is bitterness. That’s not really optimal for us.”
However, football was only part of the September story for Nevada sportsbooks.
Nevada Gaming Control tracks monthly revenue from sports betting on football, basketball, baseball, and hockey. Professional and college sports are included in each category. Bets on the remaining sports, including football, boxing, mixed martial arts, auto racing, golf and tennis, are grouped into a category called “Other.”
In September, bookmakers earned $10.4 million in the Other category. It’s the second-most in any month for the category, trailing only August 2017, when the fight between Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather on the Las Vegas Strip fueled a record $20 million win in the Other category.
When asked what produced September’s big win in the Other category, Nevada bookmakers and gaming industry analysts pointed to UFC 306, which took place before Mexican Independence Day at the Sphere in Las Vegas and featured a surprise in the main event.
“The volume that day was tremendous,” Stevens said. “That was the biggest weekend of the entire month.”
As big winning weekends continued into September, some sportsbooks worried they were winning too much, too early in the season and wondered if the strong start would temper betting action later in the season.
“Every report that came out on Sunday nights and Mondays we said, ‘Oh my gosh, what a great weekend we had,'” Stevens said. “What happened in the first four weeks of the football seasons is not sustainable. No one would bet anymore.”
October would calm those concerns, as NFL bettors recovered. Only 15 NFL favorites lost outright in October. Favorites covered the spread in 61.7% of games during the month.
Nevada sportsbooks have not posted a statewide net loss in a month since April 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the sports world. October reports are typically not released until after Thanksgiving.
“It’s weird being underwater,” said Kornegay, who has been a bookie for more than 30 years in Nevada. “I can probably count on one hand how many times it has happened to us in the last 30 years that we actually lost during the month. [October] It’s one of those of the months. “It’s been very tough, especially in the NFL.”
Through September, Nevada sportsbooks were up $370.7 million, on track for the most lucrative year in state history.
“When you have these big wins, if you’re a bookie, you can’t take those things too seriously and when you take these big losses, you have to continue to execute the process,” Stevens said. “I just think it was disproportionate the way it fell at the beginning of the year. October has been a pretty good month for the players. November, I guess we’ll see how things play out.”
