We are six games into the UEFA Champions League and the league stage is set for two more rounds of games before the knockout stage. The field is still relatively open, although teams have already started to book their places in the later rounds, although no team is absolutely 100% sure of a place in the round of 16 ahead of the midweek slate. Leaders Liverpool are the most likely and have already secured a place in the knockout phase, but have yet to secure more than access to the playoffs despite having a significant lead over everyone else. Barcelona is also chasing but right now there are more teams eliminated than classified.
We take a look at the situation as Champions League action returns for the final two rounds this week and next.
UCL Top 8
Confirmed: None…yet.
Liverpool are already guaranteed a top-24 finish, meaning at least a playoff spot, but Arne Slot’s Premier League and Champions League leaders should now become the first team to confirm their presence. in the round of 16. The Reds can confirm that status with just one more. point in the games against Lille OSC and PSV Eindhoven and it is difficult to see the Merseysiders wasting things in these last two games. If anything, they’re more likely to finish the league stage with eight wins in eight games given their impressive 100% win record so far, which is at stake against a team unbeaten in five this week against LOSC.
UCL playoffs (top 24)
Confirmed: Liverpool and Barcelona.
Barcelona are just below Liverpool with five wins from six after losing their opener and the Catalan giants are currently the most likely candidates to either push the Reds into top spot or follow them immediately into the last 16. For now, both have at least guaranteed qualification for the knockout phase, although Arne Slot’s team has a better chance of going directly to the round of 16 given their three-point lead over Barça with two to go. Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter, Stade Brestois 29 and Lille are also in the top eight with two games remaining, although none of those teams are yet to have officially reached the last 16 despite seems likely for most. of them, if not all of them. It would take a big change in results to change that, but Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid and Milan are close on 12 points, with Atalanta and Juventus on 11.
Outsiders
Neither advanced nor eliminated, there are a handful of teams that are as close to the top eight as they are to the elimination places: Benfica, Monaco, Sporting, Feyenoord and Club Brugge are all on 10 points, meaning their next win, or loss, it could have massive ramifications. Real Madrid and Celtic may sneak into that conversation given they are just one point behind that same tally, but the other big names below the Scottish giants have their work cut out for them with two games remaining.
Endangered
Surprisingly, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain are in this band along with PSV Eindhoven, Dinamo Zagreb and VfB Stuttgart, who are hovering around the cut-off point with two games remaining. In a tantalizing twist, the French giants face the Premier League champions as well as the Bundesliga side in their final two matches, arguably holding the cards for this year’s big name to possibly stumble from the beginning. Both PSG and City could still avoid it, but both will be desperate not to have to wait until the final day, when they can probably book their place in the last 16 with a win in the penultimate round of matches when they meet at the Park of the Princes on Wednesday. .
Scenarios
- Round of 16: Liverpool clinch a top-eight finish with a draw or better against Lille, while a Barça win virtually also secures them a place in the round of 16.
- Elimination rounds: Arsenal, Leverkusen, Villa, Inter, Brest and Lille are all confident of finishing in the top 24 and at least a place in the playoffs with at least one point this week. However, securing the top 8 now requires a complicated network of 10 results, as illustrated by the Brest situation below.
- Brest can only secure the top 8 this week if: They beat Shakhtar, Liverpool beat Lille, Bologna beat Dortmund, Feyenoord beat Bayern, Leverkusen beat Atlético, Girona beat Milan, Atalanta avoided defeat against Graz, Juventus tied with Brugge, Benfica They did not win against Barça, Monaco did not win against Barça. Villa or Sparta beat Inter and Sporting does not beat Leipzig.
- Removed: Bologna will be eliminated if they fail to win their two remaining games and even six points may not be enough if City, PSV and/or Dinamo get a point or more from their two remaining games. Salzburg, Red Star, Girona and Graz can reach the last day with only one victory; a draw will not be enough, as it leaves them at least four points behind the top 24. Sparta and Shakhtar may still have a chance to win. Their last games do tie this week, but it will be a very remote hope. Neither PSG nor Stuttgart will be officially eliminated until they play each other should they pick up a point or more this week, but a combination of nine results elsewhere could doom Paris should they lose to City at home .
- PSG can only leave if: They lose to City, Real beat Salzburg, Celtic beat Young Boys, Benfica avoids defeat against Barça, Monaco avoids defeat against Villa, Sporting avoids defeat against Leipzig, PSG beats Red Star , Feyenoord avoids defeat against Bayern, Brugge avoids defeat against Bayern and Dinamo beat Arsenal.
Long shots
Those teams that, at least mathematically, can still reach the playoffs but need a minimum of four points in the remaining two games are Shakhtar Donetsk, Sparta Praha, Sturm Graz, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Red Bull Salzburg and Bologna. Many of these teams are simply waiting for it to finally be confirmed that they are out of the race, even though some have made encouraging starts. However, at least for now, they do not have a 100% guarantee of not seeing the knockout phase and that is further proof of the value that the adoption of this new league phase has brought.
Go home
Confirmed: RB Leipzig, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava.
Leipzig, Red Bull’s flagship team, were the first to fall in this edition, which came as a surprise, as Aston Villa confirmed that premature exit with a home defeat in the sixth round of games. Salzburg are expected to follow shortly, although Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava were the next two after the Germans. The three eliminated teams are at zero points, with Bologna being the next to leave, given that they are two points away, which means that they can only add eight at the end of the league phase, which is still two less than 10 points Dear All. points barrier to reach the knockouts. While it mathematically fits at the moment, it is unlikely to remain the case for the Italians, who arguably do not have their destiny in their own hands even if they were to win the remaining two games.
