Champions League expert picks, predictions and best bets: Real Madrid edge out Milan; Inter-Arsenal will lack goals

UEFA Champions League action resumes this week with a series of high-profile matches as we reach the halfway point of the league stage.

Only Aston Villa and Liverpool have perfect records through three matches, although the Reds’ clash against Bayer Leverkusen is one of several matchday four clashes to watch out for. Tuesday’s action will also feature Real Madrid in the first match after a heavy defeat in El Clásico, and the most notable match of Ruben Amorim’s Sporting Lisbon farewell tour: a showdown against future foe Manchester City.

Meanwhile, Arsenal’s trip to Inter headlines Wednesday’s action. Both teams have impeccable defensive records so far in the Champions League, without conceding a single goal so far, and could use the game to make a statement about their title aspirations.

Ahead of the action, here’s how the CBS Sports team thinks matchday four will play out.

Don’t miss anything from the Champions League. As always, you can watch all of our coverage on Paramount+, CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network all season long.

Here are our expert picks for this day:

Tuesday

Liverpool vs Bayer Leverkusen

Player to watch: Florian Wirtz. Who knows, this might not be the last time Wirtz is seen at Anfield? Liverpool will certainly have plenty of rival suitors when the time comes for one of the Bundesliga’s brightest stars to leave Bayer Leverkusen, but there is a near-number 10 spot in Arne Slot’s XI who would be a perfect fit for Wirtz. On Tuesday he is expected to show how well he does. –James Benge

Man of the match: Mo Salah– As always, the Liverpool winger is probably the most dangerous player on the pitch and is likely to score against the club coached by the former Liverpool legend. Salah, who is still looking to sign a new contract with the Reds as his current one is set to expire at the end of the current season, has already scored nine goals so far in 15 games played in all competitions. –Francisco Porzio

Prediction: Prediction: Liverpool 2, Leverkusen 1 — The Reds’ impressive form under Arne Slot combines with Die Werkself’s strong form away from home in a match that will revolve around Xabi Alonso’s return to Anfield. The Spanish tactician, facing the Dutchman who got the job that many expected Alonso to accept, will be fascinating. Leverkusen can overtake Liverpool in the League Phase standings with a win, but a draw or a narrow home win is more likely. -Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: Florian Wirtz will have a shot on goal (-120) — If I had to pick a winner here, it would probably be Liverpool, but the best part about finding value in the market is that you don’t always have to pick a winner. Liverpool defender Ibrahima Konate may be available for the match, but will not be 100% after having to be withdrawn from the victory over Brighton. Leverkusen will be pushing to make things happen at Anfield and given that everything they do goes through Wirtz, he will have license to shoot and getting a single shot on goal almost even is the way to go. – Chuck’s Cabin

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool

Player to watch: Kylian Mbappé. We all expected that there would be a period of adaptation for Mbappé. A new club in a more competitive league with a world-class player already taking his natural place: this was hardly going to be a day one success. That is, however, what Madrid expects. Reports are already emerging that Carlo Ancelotti identifies Mbappé as a problem in his team. Sooner or later you will find the solution. However, doing so sooner will be crucial to calm the noise at the Santiago Bernabéu. –-James Benge

Player of the match: Vinicius Jr. — The Brazilian star will play against the Rossoneri for the first time in his career after a week in which he surprisingly lost the Ballon d’Or. Italian coach Carlo Ancelotti spoke about this in the pre-match press conference. “He’s fine. He realizes what’s happening. Luckily we didn’t play on Saturday and Vinicius trained well, like everyone else.” –Francisco Porzio

Prediction: Real 2, Milan 0 — Los Blancos have had a few more days to prepare for this match given that their weekend match was postponed, so expect to see the Spanish giants looking fresher. Carlo Ancelotti needs a response from his players after some poor results and performances, which is ideal given the Rossoneri’s problems so far this season, which has them struggling in Serie A and the Champions League. Expect a fairly easy Real victory at the Santiago Bernabéu. -Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: More than four corners in the first half (-145) — Finding value when betting on Real Madrid can be difficult. They are expected to win this match and for good reason, but the corners are a place that can be attacked. Both teams will want to start this match quickly and when flurries of attacks come from all directions and a goalkeeper like Mike Maignan is trying to protect his net, this can lead to quite a few corner kicks off the goal.

Wednesday

Inter vs Arsenal

Player to watch: Declan Rice — It’s probably just a hangover from the Euros, but apart from the draw with Liverpool, this hasn’t been a good start to the season for Rice. With Martin Odegaard sidelined and Thomas Partey out of midfield, Mikel Arteta needs his record signing in his prime at the San Siro. –James Benge

Player of the match: Bukayo Saka. The English winger is the player the Nerazzurri fear the most. After a solid start to the season, where he scored three goals and provided seven assists in nine Premier League games, Saka is ready to shine at the San Siro against the 2023 Champions League finalists. –Francisco Porzio

Prediction: Inter 1, Arsenal 1 — The Gunners have just two wins from their last five, so things are getting tougher for Mikel Arteta of late with Liverpool sweeping the Premier League title race. Both teams have seven points from nine in the League Phase so far, while the Nerazzurri are also one point behind Napoli in Serie A. Given Inter’s ability to compete close to Manchester City in the Champions League, this It seems like it will be the best. a fairly close match with a tie on the scoreboard that sounds good. -Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: Best bet: Tie (+210) — So far, when the best teams have faced each other in the Champions League, it hasn’t exactly been exciting, and this could be a continuation of that. Neither team particularly needs a win, but both have strong defenses and don’t mind if the game gets a little physical. I wouldn’t put an entire unit on such a specific outcome, but I second the points being shared. – Chuck’s Cabin

PSG against Atlético de Madrid

Player to watch: Antoine Griezmann. The pressure increases for Atlético. In such scenarios there tends to be one man who delivers (well, except the goalkeeper). Although Diego Simeone has been building an attack for life after Griezmann, the Frenchman continues to deliver results. Four goals and five assists have come at a rate of one every 122 minutes. When Atleti were in trouble against Leipzig, it was Griezmann who pulled them out. Might as well do the same this week. –James Benge

Player of the match: Ousmane Dembélé. The former FC Barcelona winger had a strong start to the 2024-25 season where he has already scored five goals and provided four assists in Ligue 1, while he has yet to score his first goal of the season in the Champions League and the clash against his Spanish ex. rivals is the perfect opportunity to make it happen. –Francisco Porzio

Prediction: PSG 2, Atleti 1 — This is a big match for both teams as Luis Enrique and Diego Simeone need a win. The French giants have looked more convincing so far given the missed opportunities to bury their opponents, but their Spanish opponents are under pressure, having already lost twice. This one is likely to be quite tense and tight, but PSG should have enough to emerge victorious and win the second phase of the league. -Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: Both teams will score (-134) — It’s a clash between some of the worst players in the Champions League so far: PSG and Atlético Madrid. While the underlying numbers support PSG turning things around, that doesn’t mean they will be able to fend off Atleti’s potent attack. It’s a good game to keep it simple, with both scoring at least one goal. – Chuck’s Cabin