The Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink of defeat, but were unable to take down the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions on Monday night. It wasn’t without a valiant effort, however, as Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense orchestrated a late touchdown to tie the game at 24 with 27 seconds left in regulation to help force overtime.
After Mayfield found wide receiver Ryan Miller for the fourth-quarter score, there was an argument for Tampa Bay to keep the offense on the field to go for the two-point conversion. Instead of kicking the extra point to tie the game, they would go for the lead, and possibly the win, right then and there. While some may have been clamoring for head coach Todd Bowles to make that aggressive decision, it didn’t appear to be under serious consideration.
“Very little,” he told reporters after the game when asked how much he thought about going for two. “We wanted to go to overtime. With the wet conditions on the field, we felt like we had to go to overtime.”
Meanwhile, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid was asked if he was surprised by the Bucs’ decision to opt to tie the game.
“No,” Reid said. “But I’m glad he didn’t.”
According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, if Tampa Bay had opted for the two-point conversion, the team’s probability of victory would have been 41.2%. With the extra point, it was 42.8%. So looking at that data, it was the right decision, although by a very narrow margin. From a more tangible, game-level standpoint, the Bucs had just scored from the 1-yard line, which was likely their two-point play. If they didn’t trust their second, that changes the calculus.
On the other hand, the Chiefs had been attacking the Bucs defense in the second half, especially with the running game and on third down. Against a superior opponent on the road and the offense that had the KC defense on its heels on that drive, the momentum seemed to be in Tampa Bay’s favor to go for the win.
Bowles had different ideas, however, and the Bucs never touched the ball again as the Chiefs won the toss and marched 70 yards down the field for a game-winning touchdown.
