Week 11 in the NFL was eventful, to say the least. The New Orleans Saints scored their second straight victory after firing coach Dennis Allen, Anthony Richardson returned to the lineup and led the Indianapolis Colts to a victory over Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets, the Chicago Bears had a field goal blocked potential to win the game. The Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks defeated the San Francisco 49ers.
Then there was the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, which lived up to expectations. Perhaps the match of the day, however, was Sunday night’s finale between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. That back-and-forth kept everyone glued to their screens before JK Dobbins’ 29-yard touchdown run secured a 34-27 victory for the Los Angeles Chargers. You have to feel bad for the Cincinnati Bengals. Nothing goes well for them.
This week, I want to dive into the suddenly interesting NFC South race and rank some coaching jobs that are available or expected to become available.
1. Is the race for the NFC South more interesting than we think?
Just a few weeks ago, I thought the race for the NFC South was over. I congratulated the Atlanta Falcons, who were going to win the worst division in the NFL by default. You’d think a Kirk Cousins-led team featuring Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts would be worth a playoff spot, but now they’ve lost two straight games in ugly fashion. The first loss was to a Saints team that had previously lost seven in a row, and then Atlanta was blown out of the field in Denver last Sunday, 38-6. We even got to see Michael Penix Jr. come in and finish the blast.
The Falcons still have a two-game lead in the division at 6-5, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-6 and the Saints are surprisingly right there at 4-7. Maybe the NFL world wrote them off after Allen’s firing, but technically they’re there.
Here’s what to consider: The Falcons have a tougher remaining schedule than either the Saints or the Buccaneers, especially the Bucs. Tankathon says Tampa Bay has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The Bucs’ only opponent with a winning record is the Chargers. Atlanta, on the other hand, still has to play the Chargers, Minnesota Vikings and Jayden Daniels’ Washington Commanders.
Can the Bucs make up three games from their last seven? Here’s what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh’s simulations say:
|
Falcons |
72.2% |
74.0% |
3.7% |
|
buccaneers |
22.2% |
28.2% |
2.1% |
|
saints |
5.4% |
7.1% |
0.4% |
|
panthers |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
These numbers surprised me a little. The Buccaneers face Tommy DeVito’s New York Giants this week while the Falcons rest on their bye. Tampa Bay could move to 5-6 on Sunday. Next up for the Bucs are the Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, so the Bucs could be 7-6 entering Week 15. The Falcons will play the Chargers and Vikings when they return to action after their bye . They could potentially be 6-7 entering Week 15.
BetMGM Sportsbook has the Falcons as -500 favorites to win the NFC South, while the Buccaneers are listed at +400. There may be some value there.
2. Which potentially available coaching jobs are the most attractive?
Most expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to fire coach Doug Pederson following their 52-6 loss to the Detroit Lions, but that hasn’t happened yet. Still, it made me think. What will be the most attractive coaching position available this offseason? Who will win the Ben Johnson/Bill Belichick sweepstakes? Or maybe you’re a Mike Vrabel type.
I don’t want to “pre-fire” anyone, but I think it’s safe to say that Pederson’s return in 2025 would be a surprise. The same goes for Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) and Matt Eberflus (Bears). So, here’s my ranking of the hottest coaching jobs this offseason:
5. New Orleans Saints: Many of the Saints’ key contributors are older, and then there’s the quarterback question. Derek Carr is under contract through 2026, but perhaps there is a potential exit in his deal this upcoming offseason. But then there is the salary issue. The Saints are already $62.8 million over the projected salary cap in 2025. New Orleans resides in the easiest division in the NFL, but the Saints may be considering a considerable rebuild.
4. New York Jets: I thought the Jets might have the No. 1 defense in the NFL this season, but they’ve struggled despite having numerous pieces in place, such as Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Then there’s the Aaron Rodgers situation. He wants to keep playing, but he doesn’t look like the elite quarterback he was in Green Bay. New York I can’t even separate myself from him. if he wanted to because of his contract. But it’s not that the Jets are looking to fire Rodgers. It will most likely influence who the new coach will be after the Jets find new general manager.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars have their young quarterback under contract, which is a plus. But Trevor Lawrence clearly hasn’t lived up to that huge stretch, and his last two seasons have been derailed by injuries. Jacksonville has roughly double the cap space as the Jets head into next year, and could have the first overall pick in the draft. Hopefully Belichick lets Travis Hunter play on both sides of the ball.
2. Dallas Cowboys: Whether they’re playing well or poorly, being the coach of the Dallas Cowboys is probably he main job in the NFL. From the facilities to the overall attention you receive, there is no other franchise that really compares. Plus, you already have your QB1 and WR1 in place, and Micah Parsons is likely next to get paid.
1. Chicago Bears: I think the Bears’ job might be the best available in the NFL this offseason. Going into 2024, many argued that no No. 1 overall rookie quarterback had ever had a more favorable situation than Chicago presented. The front office has worked hard to strengthen the defense and then added plenty of weapons to the offense with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift. It’s clear that Caleb Williams has potential. Imagine being the offensive-minded leader who brings this franchise back to prominence.
