Agent Take: Franchise Tag Projections for 2025 and Potential Candidates Who Could Be Appointed


NFL teams can retain the rights to one of their impending 2025 free agents with the use of a non-exclusive tag, an exclusive franchise tag or a transition tag for a 15-day period from February 18 to February 4. March.

Traditionally, players are not happy when they are assigned the franchise tag. The designation may hamper the ability to obtain long-term security because players must risk serious injuries and poor performance again after having exhausted their contracts when an agreement cannot be reached on a multi-year contract. In these cases, the franchise tag is essentially a one-year, high-salary “trial” contract.

The franchise tag worked more as originally intended this year. The appointment was a precursor to a long-term agreement. Seven of the eight players (87.5%) given the franchise tag signed multi-year contracts.

That’s a big change from the previous three years (2021-23). Less than half the time (11 of 24 or 45.83%) during this period was a long-term deal signed while under the designation.

Below is how the franchise and transition tags work and the projected numbers for 2025.

Label logistics

It is not well understood how franchise and transition tenders are calculated. Confusion makes most attempts to project these figures erroneous.

Prior to the 2011 NFL collective bargaining agreement, non-exclusive franchise tags had been an average of the five highest salaries from the previous year at a player’s position or 120% of the player’s salary from the previous year, which that was older. For franchise tag purposes, salary means a player’s salary cap number, excluding coaching bonuses and most other performance bonuses.

The 120% and top five salary provisions have remained intact, but the formula component is now calculated over a five-year period that is tied to a percentage of the overall salary cap. More specifically, the number for each position is obtained by taking the sum of the non-exclusive franchise tags as determined by the original methodology for the previous five seasons and dividing by the sum of the actual NFL salary cap amount for the five seasons. previous. The resulting percentage, known as the average cap percentage in the CBA, is then multiplied by the league’s actual salary cap for the next year.

This non-exclusive tag allows a player to negotiate with other NFL teams, but if he signs an offer sheet with another club, his team has five days to match the offer. If the offer is not matched, your team will receive two first-round picks as compensation from the signing team.

Under the exclusive franchise tag, a player will receive a one-year offer from his team that is the greater of the average of the five highest salaries at his position once the current year’s restricted free agent signing period ends. league (April 18). by 2025) or 120% of your salary from the previous year. The non-exclusive number is initially used as a placeholder and is adjusted upward, if the exclusive calculation dictates, once restricted free agency ends. A player cannot negotiate with other teams if he is given the exclusive franchise tag.

Teams rarely apply the transition tag. The New England Patriots designated safety Kyle Dugger this year. Before Dugger, the Arizona Cardinals had not used the transition tag since 2020 on running back Kenyan Drake.

The transition tag is based on the average of the top 10 salaries at a player’s position using the same methodology as non-exclusive franchise tag calculations. The 120% provision also applies. Teams have the same right of first refusal as with franchise tags, but do not receive any draft pick compensation for refusing to match an offer sheet.

Label projections for 2025

The following chart contains an early look at the 2025 franchise and transition tags. I keep track of the salary data needed to make calculations based on the franchise and transition tag formulas. I recently confirmed with my NFL sources the 2024 data that goes into the formula.

There was a report recently that teams have been planning for a 2025 salary cap in the range of $265 million to $275 million with internal projections. The upper limit of $275 million is being used for the 2025 salary cap. The 7.67% increase from the current figure of $255.4 million is consistent with growth in the salary cap in 2023. Franchise and transition tags are preliminary because the numbers cannot be finalized until the 2025 salary cap is set.

Capitalization %

Capitalization %

Position

Franchise

Average

Transition

Average

cornerback

$19,884,000

7.23%

$17,331,000

6.302%

defensive end

$21,730,000

7.902%

$19,573,000

7.118%

defensive tackle

$24,745,000

8.998%

$20,536,000

7.467%

linebacker

$25,069,000

9.116%

$20,549,000

7.472%

offensive line

$23,049,000

8.382%

$20,951,000

7.619%

punter/kicker

$6,218,000

2.261%

$5,644,000

2.052%

Attack player

$39,637,000

14.413%

$34,845,000

12.671%

running back

$13,435,000

4.886%

$10,900,000

3.964%

Security

$18,321,000

6.662%

$14,801,000

5.382%

tight end

$13,618,000

4.952%

$11,536,000

4.195%

wide receiver

$23,599,000

8.581%

$21,118,000

7.679%

Note: Projections assume 2025 salary cap is $275 million

The franchise tag has been used 22 times in the last three years (2022-24), which is essentially seven per year. The number of franchise designations used could decrease in 2025 because players with expired contracts are not as impressive as in recent years. It might remind us of 2014, when only four players were designated as franchise players and two transition tags were used.

player's headshot

The Cincinnati Bengals kept wide receiver Tee Higgins off the open market this year with a $21.816 million franchise tag. Pro Bowl quarterback Joe Burrow recently expressed confidence in the Bengals retaining Higgins. It will cost the Bengals $26,179,200 to use the designation on Higgins for the second consecutive year due to 120% of the previous year’s salary provisions.

player's headshot

The Minnesota Vikings have an interesting situation with quarterback Sam Darnold. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal to be a bridge quarterback in the transition from Kirk Cousins, who left for the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, to 2024 10th overall pick JJ McCarthy. Darnold has taken advantage of McCarthy being out for the year after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during the first preseason game. His surprising career year has unexpectedly turned the Vikings into Super Bowl contenders.

The Vikings will be able to accommodate a Darnold franchise tag in the neighborhood of $40 million. Depending on where the 2025 salary cap is set, the Vikings could have up to $65 million in cap space before factoring a decision on him into the equation.

There’s a chance the Vikings won’t get a compensatory 2026 draft pick by letting Darnold walk in free agency. It would depend on how aggressive the Vikings are in signing free agents. Given that Darnold would clearly be the best quarterback available on the open market, using a franchise tag to trade him is not out of the question.

The last time it happened with a quarterback was Matt Cassel in 2009. The Patriots traded Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs for a 2009 second-round pick (34th overall).

player's headshot

Russell Wilson has resurrected his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers this year after being released by the Denver Broncos in March. Pittsburgh’s history with the transition label should not be ignored. The Steelers used the designation on offensive tackle Max Starks in 2008 and linebacker Jason Worilds in 2014. There should be close to a $5 million difference in the franchise and transition tags.

player's headshot

Chiefs guard Trey Smith is the top offensive lineman on an expiring contract. Interior offensive linemen rarely receive franchise tags. The Washington Commanders used franchise tags on offensive guard Brandon Scherff in both 2020 and 2021. The Patriots also placed a franchise designation on offensive guard Joe Thuney in 2020. Before those two, the last offensive guard to receive a tag franchise was Logan Mankins for the Patriots in 2011.

Smith’s franchise tag, which should be around $23 million, will be higher than the top of the offensive guard market. Landon Dickerson (Philadelphia Eagles) sets the market at $21 million per year.

player's headshot

Chris Godwin was on pace to reach career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches before dislocating his left ankle in a Week 7 game against the Baltimore Ravens. For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to use a franchise tag on Godwin for the third time in his NFL career will be too cost-prohibitive. Under the CBA rule, it will be the greater of 144% of his $27.534 million salary in 2024 ($39,648,960) or the greater number at any position, which is quarterback.

player's headshot

The Miami Dolphins allowed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to test free agency this year due to salary constraints. The same could apply to safety Jevon Holland. He hasn’t done himself any favors with his recent play. However, Holland likely has his sights set on the top of the security market.

David Mulugheta, Holland’s agent, is aware of this market. He just made a contract extension for Budda Baker with the Cardinals, reportedly worth $54 million over three years for an average of $18 million per year. He made Antoine Winfield Jr., who was designated the franchise player by the Buccaneers, the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back in May with a four-year, $84.1 million contract, averaging $21.025 million per year. Mulugheta also had the biggest security deal in free agency this year: Xavier McKinney’s four-year, $67 million deal worth up to $68 million through incentives and salary escalators with the Green Bay Packers.





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