Six teams are bye in NFL Week 12, meaning there are 13 games on the slate. The week begins Thursday night when the Pittsburgh Steelers make the short trip to take on the rival Cleveland Browns.
Sunday features 11 games, including the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Green Bay Packers in a game that is important to both teams’ playoff hopes.
Week 12 concludes with the only matchup on this week’s schedule in which both teams have a winning record: the Baltimore Ravens against the Los Angeles Chargers on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC).
On the college side, a pair of games pit ranked teams against each other: Indiana at Ohio State and Army at Notre Dame, both of which carry a lot of intrigue when it comes to the College Football Playoffs.
Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before the lines change later in the week.
Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET
Seth Walder’s first bet: Arizona Cardinals (+1) at Seattle Seahawks
Before Sunday, FPI liked the Cardinals by a full 2 points against the Seahawks in Week 12. Does Seattle’s upset win over the 49ers justify a 3-point move? I doubt.
While it was a redeeming performance by Geno Smith and the Seahawks to keep their season afloat, if I’m betting on one quarterback in this matchup it’s the one playing the best ball of his career: Kyler Murray. The Cardinals QB is third in the league in QBR and leads an above-average offense. I’ll keep going with them, especially to get a point.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Los Angeles Chargers (13-1) will win the AFC
Last week: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over Baltimore Ravens. Closed line in Steelers +3.5. The Steelers won 18-16.
Finally, a big test for the Chargers defense and they passed it with flying colors by beating Cincinnati 34-27 on Sunday night. Jim Harbaugh’s Bolts are now +75 in point differential, putting them in fourth place in the NFL, behind only Detroit, Buffalo and Philadelphia. And at 7-3, their record is as good or better than everyone except Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Detroit.
This team is designed to be tough in the playoffs, with a battle-tested formula that features a hard-hitting running attack and a swarming defense. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers defeat the Ravens in Los Angeles next Monday night, adjusting this price in the process.
Andre Snellings’ First Bet: Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts Over 50.5 Points
Last week: Green Bay Packers (-6) over Chicago Bears. Closed line in Packers -6.5. The Packers won 20-19.
The Colts are pretty unremarkable on both sides of the ball, scoring 21.5 points per game and allowing 22.7, both within one point of the league average (22.5 points per game). So this prediction is largely based on the most dominant Lions and their expected values.
The Lions offense is a machine right now. The team leads the NFL in scoring on the season with 33.6 points per game, but in its seven games since the calendar turned to October it has increased that number to a whopping 39.1 points per game. And while the defense is also strong, the Lions and their opponents have combined to average 56.9 points per game during that seven-game span, scoring 56 or more points five times. The Colts are average enough that this game seems like a typical Lions game: high scoring with Detroit in control.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Last week: Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles. Closed line in Commanders +4.5. The Eagles won 26-18.
This line is in no man’s land when it comes to key numbers in the NFL. The way the Broncos and Bo Nix are playing, I can easily see the market moving in Denver’s favor. If so, we will arrive at a key number of 6. I would like to get ahead of that.
The Raiders are a fighting team, but not that good. Although this is officially a home game for the Raiders, I imagine the Broncos contingent in Las Vegas will outnumber the Silver and Black. The Broncos fan base is legit and this is an easy ride.
Denver has a defense that will travel as well, and Nix is playing as well or better than any rookie quarterback right now. I trust the Broncos to take care of business and I want them to get to a number south of a complete touchdown.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Army-Notre Dame under 44.5
Last week: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets UNDER 44. Line closed at 43.5. The Colts won 28-27.
Army’s rushing offense, which leads the nation with an 87% run game rate and 330 rushing yards per game, will control the clock and limit possessions. This ball control strategy naturally suppresses scoring opportunities for both teams.
Army’s defense has been solid, allowing just 11 points per game, second fewest in the nation, and 71 rushing yards per game (first in the FBS). Notre Dame’s offense, while potent, could struggle to find its rhythm against Army’s slow approach.
The Black Knights’ ability to limit opponent rushing attacks (2.9 yards per rush allowed, tied for fourth) could force Notre Dame into a one-dimensional game plan. Expect a methodical running game to keep the total low.
