There were two massive matchups in Week 11 of the NFL season and neither of them disappointed. The Pittsburgh Steelers held off the Baltimore Ravens in the final seconds, while the Buffalo Bills knocked the Kansas City Chiefs out of the ranks of the undefeated.
While the Chiefs-Bills matchup wasn’t a one-score game, there were plenty of them in Week 11. Nine games were within one score (eight points) in the fourth quarter and six games were decided by eight points or less this season. week, which makes for an exciting day of football.
There have been 78 games decided by six points or less this season, the most such games through Week 11 in NFL history. The close games created a lot of overreaction for Sunday afternoon programming, which has an effect as playoff talk grows week by week.
Which are exaggerated reactions and which are reality?
The Bills will beat the Chiefs in the playoffs if they meet this time
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
Another impressive victory for the Bills over the Chiefs in the regular season. The Bills handed the Chiefs their first loss and became the first team to score more than 28 points against the Kansas City defense in a regular-season game since 2022. Josh Allen is the first player to record four wins against Patrick Mahomes, proving once again that the Bills can beat the Chiefs.
In the regular season, that is. Allen and the Bills have yet to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. The last two times the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season, they lost in the postseason. Will this season be different?
The Bills certainly have the personnel (and quarterback) to beat Kansas City in January. Until Buffalo actually does it, let’s reserve judgment. This season may be the Bills’ best chance to beat the Chiefs in January.
Chiefs still have home field advantage in AFC
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
The Chiefs will have work to do to secure home-field advantage in the AFC after Sunday’s loss to the Bills. Buffalo is the second seed in the AFC and has the tiebreaker over Kansas City, making the path to the playoffs through Arrowhead Stadium more difficult.
The Chiefs also have tough games against the Chargers (home), Texans (home), Steelers (road) and Broncos (road) to close out the season. That Steelers game could be the deciding contest on whether or not Kansas City gets home-field advantage in the AFC.
Kansas City is still the team to beat in the AFC, but the path to gaining home-field advantage would have been much easier with a win on Sunday.
The Steelers are Super Bowl contenders in the AFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Steelers not only defeated the Ravens and took control of the AFC North in Sunday’s victory, but they also sent a warning signal to the Chiefs and Bills that they are contenders to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. The Steelers didn’t score a touchdown on Sunday, their second win this season without scoring a touchdown (the rest of the NFL is 2-18 when they don’t score a touchdown).
So why are the Steelers on par with the Chiefs and Bills? Their offense has been one of the 10 best since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback. Pittsburgh is fifth in offensive points per game (25.5) and third in time of possession (33:30) since Wilson took over, controlling the ball and finding ways to score points.
The top-10 offense has helped the Steelers improve to 5-0 against teams that currently have winning records. Beating good teams is why the Steelers are among the AFC contenders, and they should be in the conversation with the Bills and Chiefs to make the Super Bowl outside of the AFC.
Lamar Jackson has lost his stranglehold on the league MVP award
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Jackson has had an incredible season to this point, however, his performance on Sunday against the Steelers brought him closer to the field. He completed just 16 of 33 passes for 207 yards with one touchdown and interception (66.1 rating) while only rushing for 46 yards (on four carries). Jackson led the Ravens to a touchdown that set up the two-point conversion that would have tied the game and forced overtime, but he was unable to convert the two-point attempt.
Jackson still has 25 touchdowns to just three interceptions for a 117.3 rating (which leads the NFL) and has 584 rushing yards, yet his team is just 7-4 with losses to the Chiefs and Steelers. Add in what Jared Goff, Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley accomplished this week and the MVP race certainly tightened.
The award may no longer be a runaway option for Jackson, but he should still be the favorite for the MVP award. Jackson will need a strong performance against the Chargers and Eagles defenses over the next two weeks to claim the league’s top individual honor.
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
Playoff chances are essentially lost for the Jets, who fell to 3-8 after a home loss to the Colts on Sunday. In a game the Jets should have had before the bye week, of course, the offense scored a season-high 27 points while the defense allowed 28, the fourth game in which they allowed more than 28 points this season.
There is a lot to blame Rodgers for this failure of a season. The Jets had nine yards in the first quarter and 27 on the first five possessions, but Rodgers led them to scores on five of their next six possessions before failing on the potential game-winning drive.
The Jets are stuck with Rodgers (and their salary cap) for 2025. The best they can do with Rodgers is hope to make the best of a bad situation, even if his completion percentage is only 63.4% and yards per attempt are with only 6.4. A change in offensive coordinator and not having Rodgers in charge of the staff may be the only way to solve this problem.
Rodgers is still a better option than anything else the Jets will have over the next two seasons, as unfortunate as that may seem.
Bears to fire Matt Eberflus before end of season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
What else can the Bears accomplish with Eberflus in 2024? It may be wise for Chicago to cut bait with Eberflus before the end of the season rather than trying to see if Thomas Brown as a playmaker will work. Eberflus is 14-30 in his three seasons in Chicago, clearly showing that he is not cut out to be a head coach in the league.
The blocked field goal that would have won the game is another failure by the Bears coaching staff under Eberflus. This is also the players’ fault for not executing, but Eberflus can’t get this team out of its own way. Chicago has lost four straight since its bye week with one of the most grueling schedules remaining in the league.
Eberflus won’t arrive until Week 18, not because this team has been losing games.
The Dolphins will be one of the AFC teams to make the playoffs.
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
The Dolphins have clawed their way into the AFC playoffs with two wins in six days, opening the door to a potential playoff run with Tua Tagovailoa and the offense finally healthy. The Broncos didn’t help by destroying the Falcons on Sunday, but the Dolphins have a favorable schedule over the next few weeks.
Miami plays New England and the New York Jets at home in two of the next three weeks, and closes the season with games at Cincinnati and the New York Jets. So here are some winnable games.
The Dolphins still have road games against the Packers and Texans, plus a home game against the 49ers. Can Miami beat at least one of these teams? Miami is in the playoff race, but the Dolphins need the Broncos to falter in the coming weeks to have a chance, in addition to taking care of business against bad teams.
It’s too early to believe in the Dolphins as a playoff team, even if Miami has already earned consideration. It helps make the AFC mediocre as a whole this year.
The 49ers will not make the playoffs as a wild card team
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The 49ers blew an important opportunity to put pressure on the Cardinals in the NFC West on Sunday, falling to the Seahawks in the final minute and falling last in the division. The best way for the 49ers to make the playoffs is to win the division (since they are just one game away at 5-5).
While San Francisco is just one game behind Washington in the loss column for seventh place, the Commanders have a very easy schedule the rest of the way. The Rams and Seahawks are also ahead of the 49ers in the conference (and division) standings, as San Francisco has lost to all of them (it beat Seattle on the road earlier this year).
The Vikings are 8-2 and the Packers are 7-3, making the path to the playoffs as a wild card team even more difficult for San Francisco. If the 49ers want to make the playoffs as a wild card team, they have to beat the Packers and Bills over the next two weeks (both road games).
The best path to the playoffs is to win the division, but San Francisco is 1-3 in the NFC West. The 49ers may be in trouble.
