Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded NFL weekend.
Let’s get into the full Week 10 slate, including the Giants and Panthers showdown in Munich, Germany, and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey’s season debut against the Buccaneers. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Dolphins and the Rams on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
NYG-CAR | NE-CHI | BUF-IND
DEN-KC | ATL-NO | SF-TB
PIT-WSH | MIN-JAX | TEN-LAC
PHI-DAL | NYJ-ARI | DET-HOU
MIA-LAR
Thursday: BAL 35, CIN 34
Byes: CLE, GB, LV, SEA
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: NYG -6.5 (40.5 O/U)
Giants storyline to watch: This is an unusual spot for the Giants. They’re actually favorites despite coming in on a four-game skid. The Giants had been underdogs in 24 straight games dating to Week 2 of last season, their longest such stretch in the Super Bowl era (1970). The expectations now are significantly different for quarterback Daniel Jones & Co. The Giants have to win and the heat will only intensify if they are upset by the Panthers, who are underdogs for the 30th straight game. — Jordan Raanan
Panthers storyline to watch: Quarterback Bryce Young will get his third straight start after engineering his first NFL winning touchdown drive last week, but that came against a Saints team depleted by injuries. He’ll likely have help with rookie running back Jonathon Brooks expected to make his NFL debut. The challenge will be stopping the Giants’ rushing attack with a run defense ranked last in the NFL with 159.3 yards allowed per game. — David Newton
Stat to know: Jones has been sacked 27 times (fifth most of any QB in the NFL), but the Panthers have just 10 sacks on the season (second worst).
Bold prediction: There will be zero touchdowns scored. This will prompt bored and confused faces in the German crowd expecting to see an entertaining American football game. Instead, they’ll get Giants-Panthers, a matchup of two of the league’s worst teams. — Walder
Injuries: Giants | Panthers
Fantasy X factor: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. The rookie has taken charge in New York’s backfield, logging 17 or more touches in four of his past five games. He also has delivered 14-plus fantasy points in three of those. Against a Panthers defense that’s allowing the most fantasy points to running backs, Tracy is set up for another strong performance. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 3-0 in Germany games, with each game finishing at least eight points below the closing total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Giants 23, Panthers 13
Moody’s pick: Giants 23, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Giants 12, Panthers 9
FPI prediction: NYG, 66.4% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Inside trade that brought pass rusher Burns to Giants … Panthers face yet another former first-rounder in Burns
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CHI -6.5 (38.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: Quarterback Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick, will make his fifth NFL start and said seeing No. 1 pick quarterback Caleb Williams on the opposite sideline is motivating to him. “I’ve seen him since high school. We’d go to the same camps, we were at the Elite 11 with each other. We got some college visits together. We kept up with each other in college, we were friends, and I enjoyed watching him do his thing. Now I get a chance to compete, so any time you’re going up against a rookie quarterback in the same class, it’s a little extra.” — Mike Reiss
Bears storyline to watch: Wide receiver DJ Moore has had a quiet start to the season aside from his breakout performance in Week 5 (105 yards, 2 TDs). Including Chicago’s loss at Arizona in Week 9, Moore has 80 receiving yards total in his past three games and has never been held under 40 receiving yards in four consecutive games. Both Moore and Williams acknowledged that their on-field chemistry is not where it needs to be. “We talk all the time, we laugh and joke all the time and things like that, but I think talking a little bit more and communicating a little bit more about specifics of ways I see it and the ways he sees it, ways he’s seeing it and then keep going from there,” Williams said. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Patriots have gone seven consecutive games without reaching 300 yards, their longest streak since 1992 to 1993 (10 straight).
Bold prediction: The Bears will sack Maye five or more times. Chicago’s defensive front, with its fifth-ranked pass rush win rate (47.4%), should feast against New England’s 32nd-ranked pass block win rate (48.6%). — Walder
Injuries: Patriots | Bears
Fantasy X factor: Bears running back D’Andre Swift. The best way for Chicago to go at the Patriots is on the ground. New England’s defense is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Swift has scored 19-plus fantasy points in four of his past five games. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots have covered back-to-back games after going 0-5 ATS in their previous five games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bears 24, Patriots 17
Moody’s pick: Bears 23, Patriots 17
Walder’s pick: Bears 17, Patriots 13
FPI prediction: CHI, 72.7% (by an average of 9.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Which remaining game is most important for Patriots? … Why QB Williams, Bears’ offense struggle … QB Williams, WR Moore still seeking chemistry
Why the over could be a good bet in Patriots-Bears
Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he thinks rookie QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will put points on the scoreboard in the Week 10 matchup between the Patriots and Bears.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -4 (47.5 O/U)
Bills storyline to watch: Quarterback Josh Allen has started the season with an MVP-candidate performance and is among the favorites to win the award, according to ESPN BET (+300). He has thrown only two interceptions, neither of which were his fault. Going against the Colts, however, Allen might be without two wide receivers as Amari Cooper, who missed last week’s game, and Keon Coleman deal with wrist injuries. The Bills’ offense could rely even more on running the ball against an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (149.8). — Alaina Getzenberg
Colts storyline to watch: The Colts’ defense continues its confounding season, during which it has given up significant yardage but kept games close. Indianapolis ranks 29th in yards allowed, with 383.6 yards per game. Only the Patriots and Panthers have a bigger yards deficit between them and their opponents. But the Colts allow only 21.4 points per game (12th). Can their surprising formula work against a Buffalo offense that’s fourth in scoring (28.1 points per game)? — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: The Colts are the fourth team in NFL history to have each of their first nine games decided by one-score margins.
Bold prediction: If Cooper plays — he was limited in practice this week — he will catch a 40-plus-yard pass. No team allows a higher air yards per attempt (10.3) than the Colts. — Walder
Injuries: Bills | Colts
Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. The Colts’ defense ranks among the worst against running backs, allowing the second-most rushing yards (149.8) per game. Cook’s versatile skill set is well suited to exploit these weaknesses. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season and 5-1 ATS as underdogs. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 28, Colts 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 33, Colts 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Colts 16
FPI prediction: BUF, 64.7% (by an average of 5.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will Richardson ever reclaim his QB1 role in Indy? … Can Bills new defenders make an impact? Can WRs get healthy? … Flacco to stay Colts QB1 despite offense’s season-low output
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: KC -8 (41.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to watch: Get ready to watch two of the league’s most aggressive defenses. The Broncos are ranked third in percentage of opponents dropbacks that result in a hit, sack or duress for quarterbacks (37.4%), while the Chiefs are eighth at 34.2%. The Broncos will try to be judicious in how they rush Patrick Mahomes, given his success against blitzes, but they have tried in the past to bring some off-ball pressure. So the real question is how rookie Bo Nix handles the Chiefs’ rush. Nix has been sacked 11 times in the past five games. The Broncos have yet to win when he has been sacked and has an interception in the same game. — Jeff Legwold
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs had trouble operating efficiently in the two games against the Broncos last season, scoring one touchdown and a total of 28 points. Mahomes was intercepted three times and sacked five times. The Chiefs are in a better place now offensively, averaging about 28 points per game over their past four. But can they figure out Denver’s defense, which even after last week’s torching by the Ravens is third in scoring (17.9 points per game) and sixth in yards (295.2)? — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: The Broncos are looking to win consecutive games versus Kansas City for the first time since winning seven straight from 2012 to 2015.
Why Fulghum is slightly leaning toward the Broncos on Sunday
Tyler Fulghum explains why he is leaning toward taking the points with the Broncos in their matchup against the Chiefs in Week 10.
Bold prediction: Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will catch no more than one pass against Pat Surtain II. Surtain has just a 10% target rate allowed, third lowest among outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps. — Walder
Injuries: Broncos | Chiefs
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. The Broncos’ secondary has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, but Mahomes isn’t your typical quarterback. Hunt’s dual-threat ability could be key in this matchup. He has 22 or more touches in three straight games and 18-plus fantasy points in two of those. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Broncos are 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 21
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Chiefs 24
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 23, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: KC, 76.5% (by an average of 10.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Broncos look to turn page against Chiefs … Mahomes able to move around, won’t be limited on hurt ankle
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ATL -4 (46.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to watch: Quarterback Kirk Cousins struggled in the first game against the Saints in Week 4, still getting used to a new offense and new targets. Atlanta did not score an offensive touchdown. From Week 5 on, Cousins has the second-most passing yards (1,464) in the league and, overall, the Saints’ defense allows the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (2,279). — Marc Raimondi
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints fired Dennis Allen on Monday, and they’ll face the Falcons with interim coach Darren Rizzi, who promised passion, fight and a team that’s “not boring to watch.” The Saints have lost their past seven games, sparking major changes — in addition to Allen’s firing, they also traded star cornerback Marshon Lattimore on Tuesday. That means the top two cornerbacks this weekend will be Alontae Taylor and potentially rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry, who missed last week because of a hamstring issue. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: The Saints have six touchdown passes through eight games. The last time they had seven or fewer passing TDs over an eight-game span was in 2005.
Bold prediction: Saints defensive lineman Carl Granderson will put up a sack. Falcons right tackle Kaleb McGary has just an 82% pass block win rate, which ranks 59th out of 67 qualifying tackles, and Granderson typically lines up on that side. — Walder
Injuries: Falcons | Saints
Fantasy X factor: Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney is in a great spot, regardless of Drake London’s status because of a hip injury. The Saints’ defense is allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, and Mooney has had 18 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: All seven NFC South matchups have gone over the total this season. NFC South matchups are averaging 58.7 points per game. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 34, Saints 24
Moody’s pick: Falcons 38, Saints 21
Walder’s pick: Saints 24, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: ATL 51.8% (by an average of 0.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons rally around Raheem Morris’ ‘Outrun the South’ battle cry … What does Dennis Allen’s firing mean for Saints, QB Carr? … Falcons build on best start since Super Bowl season
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -6 (50.5 O/U)
49ers storyline to watch: All eyes will be on running back Christian McCaffrey as he’s expected to make his return from Achilles tendinitis. His workload will depend on how the week of practice goes, but there’s no doubt the Niners can use him against a Bucs defense that blitzes defensive backs at the third-highest rate in the NFL (18%). Niners quarterback Brock Purdy has struggled against such looks this season, posting a 13.0 QBR that ranks 32nd in the league. Getting McCaffrey back as a safety valve should help and, potentially, force Tampa Bay to think twice before continuing to dial those blitzes up at such a volume. — Nick Wagoner
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs are 0-3 against the 49ers since Todd Bowles became their defensive playcaller in 2019, and they’ve dropped their past three games without Pro Bowl receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Granted, they took the NFL’s only unbeaten team — the Chiefs — into overtime Monday night, but that coincided with Bowles’ controversial decision not to go for a two-point conversion with 30 seconds to play. A victory would certainly quiet his critics and give the Bucs some help in the wild-card race as the Falcons already have a two-game lead in the NFC South. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers have allowed 34 points per game during their three-game losing streak, which is the second most during that span (the Titans have allowed 34.3).
Bold prediction: 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa will sack quarterback Baker Mayfield. Bosa plays a little more opposite the right tackle and when he does he’ll get the far easier matchup of Luke Goedeke (compared to Tristan Wirfs). My sack model gives Bosa a 53% chance to earn at least one sack in the game. — Walder
Injuries: 49ers | Buccaneers
Fantasy X factor: Purdy. He’s set up for a big game against the Buccaneers, who’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With one of the highest totals on the slate, Purdy and his receiving playmakers are set up to capitalize. Purdy has scored 24-plus fantasy points in two of his past three games. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Mayfield is 0-4 ATS as at least a six-point home underdog (0-1 with Buccaneers). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, 49ers 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Buccaneers 28
Walder’s pick: 49ers 34, Buccaneers 13
FPI prediction: SF, 53.3% (by an average of 1.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why the 49ers are impressed by their rookie class … Otton picking up where Evans, Godwin left off
Is matchup vs. Buccaneers a must-win game for 49ers?
Dan Orlovsky, Jason McCourty and Kimberley A. Martin break down the importance of the 49ers’ game vs. the Buccaneers.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: WSH -2.5 (44.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: The typically stout Steelers run defense faltered in its last game before the bye, allowing Giants rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. to rush for 145 yards, marking the first time the defense allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. The Steelers figure to have their hands full again with a Commanders run game that ranks third in the NFL with 163.9 rushing yards per game. Not only do the Steelers have to account for two capable backs, but rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ 459 yards is second to only Ravens’ Lamar Jackson in quarterback rushing yards. The Steelers took a step to shore up their run defense by acquiring Packers edge rusher Preston Smith at the trade deadline, but he might not be up to speed by Sunday. — Brooke Pryor
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington has allowed 5.0 yards per carry or more in five games this season and a combined 366 yards rushing in the past two games combined. Part of the problem has been needing to keep two safeties deep more than they’d like to, which they hope will lessen when new cornerback Marshon Lattimore is able to play. Sunday, the Commanders must contend with a rushing attack that ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per game (138.1). It’s more of a consistent bludgeoning than long, flashy runs as the Steelers average 4.2 yards per carry. That makes this difficult for Washington. — John Keim
Stat to know: The Commanders have gone four straight games without a turnover, which is the franchise’s longest streak since turnovers were first tracked in 1933.
Bold prediction: New Steelers wide receiver Mike Williams will have under two receptions. I imagine his playing time could be limited on a new team. But I’m also skeptical in general given his low level of play in New York. He had just a 28 open score and 0.8 yards per route run with the Jets. — Walder
Injuries: Steelers | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Steelers running back Najee Harris. The Commanders’ offense ranks third in total yards (392) and points per game (28.4), so Pittsburgh will want to control the clock. The Steelers rank sixth in time of possession (31:42), and that starts with their running game. Harris has had 16-plus touches and 16-plus fantasy points in three straight games. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 28, Steelers 25
Moody’s pick: Commanders 23, Steelers 20
Walder’s pick: Commanders 27, Steelers 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 53.0% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: New WR Williams adds depth the Steelers need … Lattimore: Trade pushes Commanders closer to Super Bowl
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -7 (44.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: With a win, the Vikings would match their 2023 season win total (seven) and exceed their preseason win projection from ESPN’s Football Power Index (6.8). They don’t often play the Jaguars, having matched up seven times in their history and losing to them only once (in 2001). But new left tackle Cam Robinson should provide some helpful insight, since the Vikings acquired him from Jacksonville two weeks ago. — Kevin Seifert
Jaguars storyline to watch: With quarterback Trevor Lawrence battling a left shoulder injury, backup Mac Jones could make his first start since Week 12 of the 2023 season with New England. Lawrence has missed only one game in his career (Week 17 of 2023). The Jaguars are 2-12 in Lawrence’s past 14 starts, and he has thrown 20 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions over that span. Jones is 2-10 and has 13 TD passes and 15 interceptions in his past 12 starts. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Vikings’ 13 interceptions lead the NFL. That’s their most in the first eight games since 2003.
Why Sam Darnold needs to be in fantasy lineups in Week 10
Field Yates and Mike Clay explain why Sam Darnold needs to be in fantasy lineups in a favorable matchup vs. the Jaguars.
Bold prediction: Jaguars edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen will record a sack. Even though Robinson was solid in his debut as a Viking, he still has only an 83% pass block win rate on the season. I like Hines-Allen’s chances to get a sack past his old teammate. — Walder
Injuries: Vikings | Jaguars
Fantasy X factor: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. He faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With top receiving targets Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, Darnold is set to exploit this matchup. He has scored 18 or more fantasy points in back-to-back games. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight Jaguars games have gone over the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 33, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Vikings 34, Jaguars 21
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Jaguars 9
FPI prediction: MIN, 59.6% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: What did coach O’Connell change to open up Vikings’ offense? … Jaguars’ slow starts tied to third-down issues in first half … Jaguars DE Walker’s first TD was preceded by rock, paper, scissors
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: LAC -7.5 (38.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: Both the Titans and Chargers like to slow the game down with their physical, ball-control offenses. Tennessee’s 32:34 time of possession is fourth best in the league, but the Chargers aren’t far behind with a 31:16 average (11th). Titans quarterback Will Levis (shoulder) is set to make his return and will be eager to make big plays, so the Titans staff has to make sure he doesn’t press. “We really want to manage,” offensive coordinator Nick Holz said. “Not only manage the game but go through the progressions, stay on schedule, stay efficient and kind of go from there.” — Turron Davenport
Chargers storyline to watch: The Chargers have been among the best passing offenses in the NFL in recent weeks, with the second-most passing yards per game in their past three weeks (279.3). The Titans, however, are the NFL’s best pass defense, allowing a league-low 155.8 yards per game. For that reason, this could be a big game for Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins, who had 105 total yards and two touchdowns last week in a win over the Browns. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Titans have allowed only one quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards this season (Buffalo’s Josh Allen, 323). The next-closest quarterback was New England’s Drake Maye, who threw for 206 last week.
Bold prediction: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will attempt at least 32 passes. Since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers have actually passed two percentage points over expectation based on situation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Injuries: Titans | Chargers
Fantasy X factor: Dobbins. He had 16 touches in four straight games, with two games hitting 21 or more. And in three of those games, Dobbins scored at least 17 fantasy points. With the Chargers entering as heavy favorites, expect them to lean more on Dobbins. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 1-7 ATS, which is the worst in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 30, Titans 17
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Titans 12
Walder’s pick: Chargers 27, Titans 16
FPI prediction: LAC, 66.5% (by an average of 6.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Westbrook-Ikhine dons ‘Honda Accord’ T-shirt after TD grab … Chargers have found team bonding activity: shuffleboard … Titans lose starters Cushenberry, Diggs for rest of season
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PHI -7 (43.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to watch: Running back Saquon Barkley is 0-10 in his career against the Cowboys. All of those losses, though, came as a member of the Giants. He’s with a more talented group in Philadelphia and has absolutely flourished through eight games. Barkley is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and ranks second in rushing yards per game (115.6) behind only the Ravens’ Derrick Henry (116.9). Coming off an electric, reverse-hurdling performance against Jacksonville, Barkley appears well positioned to get off the schneid against Dallas. — Tim McManus
Cowboys storyline to watch: Normally, returning home has been a good thing for the Cowboys. Not in 2024. They are 0-3 after having won 16 straight regular-season games at AT&T Stadium from 2022 to 2023. They have been outscored by 66 points in those defeats. And they won’t have quarterback Dak Prescott, who is out because of a hamstring injury. Cooper Rush is 5-1 filling in for Prescott, but his one loss came in 2022 against the Eagles when he was intercepted three times. A loss Sunday would be Dallas’ fourth straight, which would be its longest streak since 2020. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: The Cowboys are 17-1 in division games at home since 2018, which is the best in NFL. They’ve won their past 10.
Bold prediction: Eagles backup running back Kenneth Gainwell or Will Shipley will score a touchdown. The blowout will be on to the point that the Eagles will be able to rest late. The Cowboys can’t stop the run no matter who is carrying the ball. — Walder
Injuries: Eagles | Cowboys
Fantasy X factor: Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. He has seen six or more targets in back-to-back games, putting up 18-plus fantasy points each time. With A.J. Brown dealing with a knee injury, Smith is in a great spot. The Cowboys’ secondary has struggled against receivers, and Smith has averaged 14.0 fantasy points per game against Dallas. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games and 0-3 ATS in their past three. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 38, Cowboys 12
Moody’s pick: Eagles 28, Cowboys 14
Walder’s pick: Eagles 35, Cowboys 10
FPI prediction: PHI. 69.1% (by an average of 7.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cowboys vs. Eagles in NFC East: Coaches, players, more stats … Saquon’s reverse hurdle leaves Eagles ‘speechless’ … Do 3-5 Cowboys still have a playoff path through NFC East?
What would putting Dak Prescott on IR mean for Cowboys?
Adam Schefter reports on several questions for the Cowboys surrounding Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -1.5 (46.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to watch: To win their second straight and keep alive their faint playoff hopes, the Jets must contain running back James Conner and quarterback Kyler Murray’s scrambling. They have struggled against the run (132.6 yards per game, which ranks 21st), and they’ve been exposed by mobile quarterbacks. In fact, the Jets have surrendered 209 scramble yards, fifth most in the league. It has been a huge point of emphasis this week in practice. — Rich Cimini
Cardinals storyline to watch: If the Cardinals want to extend their winning streak to four in a row, which would also be their fifth in six games, then they need to continue doing what they’ve been doing recently: winning any way possible. Last week against the Bears, it was running for 213 yards, a week after throwing for 307 against the Dolphins. And then the Cardinals need to contain quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Coach Jonathan Gannon said the Cardinals aren’t going to be able to trick Rodgers, and he’s good at not getting hit, so Arizona will have to win its one-on-ones to try to counter Rodgers’ ability. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Cardinals are allowing opponents to convert on 48.2% of third-down attempts, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL behind the Panthers.
Bold prediction: Jets cornerback D.J. Reed will record an interception. Reed has had a great season, with 0.8 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Injuries: Jets | Cardinals
Fantasy X factor: Murray. He put up a season-low 4.7 fantasy points last week against the Bears. But he was more of a game manager because the Cardinals led for most of the game. This week, Murray faces a Jets defense that allowed 24.4 fantasy points to Josh Allen in Week 6 and 24.8 to Russell Wilson in Week 7. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 0-3 ATS as underdogs this season and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games as underdogs. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 27, Jets 21
Moody’s pick: Jets 20, Cardinals 19
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 24, Jets 23
FPI prediction: ARI, 50.9% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: WR Wilson visits Harlem soup kitchen after dazzling catch … Why WR Harrison’s ‘next-level’ work ethic is stuff of lore … WR Corley learns from touchdown blooper … ‘We are for real’: How Cardinals have won three straight
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: DET -3.5 (48.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: Lions receiver Jameson Williams will return after serving a two-game suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substances policy. The Lions have won back-to-back games without Williams, with the offense averaging 38 points, but coach Dan Campbell intends to throw him back in the mix immediately. “He’s locked and ready to go, so I think he’s going to come right out of this on top,” Campbell said. Despite missing two games, Williams is Detroit’s second-leading receiver behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (464) with 17 receptions for 361 yards and three touchdowns. — Eric Woodyard
Texans storyline to watch: In games against teams with winning records, the Texans are 1-2 while being outscored 75-52. The Lions come in with the league’s highest point differential (110) and average 32.3 points. The Lions present the biggest challenge the Texans have seen this season, and the Texans’ best defensive lineman, Will Anderson Jr., might not play after suffering an ankle injury against the Jets. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The last time the Lions started 8-1 or better was 1954. They reached the NFL Championship Game that year, losing to the Browns.
Rodgers impressed by Jared Goff’s season in Detroit
Aaron Rodgers raves to Pat McAfee about Jared Goff’s accuracy this season with the Detroit Lions.
Bold prediction: Lions defensive tackle Alim McNeill will record a sack. McNeill has 2.5 sacks on the season, and his 11% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks 10th at the position. He can take advantage of the Texans’ weak interior offensive line. — Walder
Injuries: Lions | Texans
Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. The Lions’ weakness is defending the pass; they’re allowing the third-most fantasy points to receivers. Even if Nico Collins is back, Dell should stay heavily involved with Stefon Diggs out for the season because of a torn ACL. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 7-1 in the Texans’ past eight games. Unders are 4-0 in Texans home games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 34, Texans 27
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Texans 24
Walder’s pick: Lions 21, Texans 17
FPI prediction: DET, 61.6% (by an average of 4.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Branch apologizes for flipping off Green Bay crowd … Texans to debut ‘battle red’ uniforms on SNF … How a 1-in-780,000 completions streak explains the Goff-St. Brown connection … Texans, Stroud know they have to correct second-half struggles
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: LAR -1 (50.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to watch: Through the first seven weeks of the season, the Dolphins’ offense ranked dead last in the league in expected points added (EPA) with minus-67.7. In the two games since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s return from a four-game absence, that number has improved to 25.3 — good for second best in the NFL. Miami’s resurgent offense gets a stiff test against a Rams defense that leads the league in EPA during its current three-game win streak. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Rams storyline to watch: The Rams have the most passing yards per game (196.8), most completions per game (16.3) and the fourth-most first downs per game (9.0) when targeting wide receivers, according to ESPN Research. But this season, Miami has had success limiting production from that position. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-fewest completions per game (9.6), fourth-fewest passing yards per game (118.5) and the eighth-fewest first downs per game (6.1) when opponents target wide receivers. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Rams’ defense has scored in four consecutive games. According to Elias Sports Bureau, only two teams have done that in five straight games (the 1952 Rams and 1994 Raiders).
Bold prediction: Both teams will hit a play-action play or at least 25 yards. Like most offenses in the Sean McVay-Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, both of theses units use their fair share of play action (they both rank in the top 10 in usage rate). And the Rams’ and Dolphins’ defenses rank 29th and 24th in EPA allowed to play action, respectively. — Walder
Injuries: Dolphins | Rams
Fantasy X factor: Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. He has just eight targets and 16.1 fantasy points over the past two games. This week, however, he faces a Rams secondary that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, making him a solid flex option. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games as underdogs (0-8 outright). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Rams 27, Dolphins 21
Moody’s pick: Rams 28, Dolphins 21
Walder’s pick: Rams 26, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: LAR, 54.8% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Poyer says illegal hit was ‘clean play’ … Rams post longest NFL play this season with 103-yard pick-six
