It’s a shame I can’t brag about my direct choices. I mean, I was 14-1 last week, and the only loss was to the New Orleans Saints, who blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Carolina Panthers. That’s impressive, right?
Meanwhile, my picks against the spread were 8-7 last week, which I’ll take after two terrible weeks before that. The season record for ATS picks is now 64-71-3, which is gross. The all-time record is 82-56-0.
As for the ATS picks last week, I got criticized because the Eagles blew a big lead against the Jaguars and the Titans gave up a touchdown on the last play of regulation against the Patriots. Oh.
This week features some interesting games, including Bengals vs. Ravens, Steelers vs. Commanders, and Lions vs. Texans.
Let’s keep the momentum going. It’s November, time to advance to the playoffs. Okay, so I make the playoffs no matter what. But you get the idea.
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Cincinnati Bengals against Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET (Prime Video)
If the Bengals really want to be considered a playoff contender, they have to win this one. Both offenses can score, while both defenses have struggled. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson will put on an offensive show here, and the Ravens will get it done late.
Choose: Ravens 34, Bengals 33
Premium: SportsLine insider Mike Tierney has a 52-22-2 streak in Ravens games. We can tell you he disagrees with me and is leaning down for this monumental AFC North showdown. See which side is backing at SportsLine.
New York Giants (-6) against Carolina Panthers (in Germany)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
It’s a shame that the poor German fans have to be subjected to this mess. The Panthers won a game last week against the Saints, even though they were dominated. Bryce Young was better. The Giants are skidding. But they are the best team. That will appear. The giants take it.
Choose: Giants 21, Panthers 14
New England Patriots against Chicago Bears (-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Bears have lost two straight road games, while the Patriots are playing a second straight road game after losing to the Titans last week. Drake Maye turned it over three times in that game. This Bears defense will test him even more. Look for the Bears to get back on track here. Caleb Williams plays better in the rookie battle.
Choose: Bears 27, Patriots 16
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The decision to play Joe Flacco didn’t pay off for the Colts last week. But it will start again. The Bills have running game issues, so look hard for Jonathan Taylor here. Still, I don’t think the Colts will stop Josh Allen and his offense. Look for the Bills to stay hot.
Choose: Bills 30, Foals 17
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Jaguars have lost a lot of close games, but they have a lot of injury problems right now. Minnesota’s offense should have a good day here as Jacksonville’s defense is last in the league in pass defense. Justin Jefferson will enlighten you. The Vikings take it.
Choose: Vikings 31, Jaguars 23
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Broncos lost on the road last week, while the Chiefs will play a short week. Kansas City seemed to find its offense a bit against Tampa Bay, while the Broncos’ defense was picked apart by Lamar Jackson last week. This is a tough question for Denver again on the road. Look for the Chiefs to remain undefeated as their defense beats Bo Nix.
Choose: Chiefs 29, Broncos 17
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Saints fired coach Dennis Allen this week, replacing him with special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi. He will liven things up.
The problem is talent. The saints are too hurt. The Falcons will come to New Orleans and beat their rivals as long as Kirk Cousins and the offense stay hot.
Choose: Hawks 30, Saints 17
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The 49ers are coming off their bye, while the Bucs played on Monday. But this is a long journey for the 49ers. Still, they are getting healthier. That matters. Christian McCaffrey could be back here. Tampa Bay is still very banged up. The 49ers will win thanks to their running game.
Choose: 49ers 28, Bucs 20
Pittsburgh Steelers against Washington Commanders (-3)
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Steelers are no longer on their bye, while the Commanders are coming off a division win over the Giants. This will be Russell Wilson’s first road start for the Steelers. He’ll have a new receiver in Mike Williams, but the Commanders have a new cornerback in Marshon Lattimore. I think Jayden Daniels surpasses Russell Wilson.
Choose: Commanders 23, Steelers 17
Sunday, 4:05 pm Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Chargers have been playing well, winning two in a row, while the Titans beat the Patriots last week. This is a big step forward in the Titans’ class of opponent, and it’s on the road. Look for Justin Herbert to stay hot as the Chargers take him.
Choose: Chargers 28, Titans 17
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Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Cardinals are one of the surprises so far, winning three straight to take the lead in the NFC West. The Jets last beat the Texans on a Thursday. This is a long trip, but the Jets seem to have found something against the Texans. Aaron Rodgers and the offense showed some life. That will continue to be true here as the Jets win a tough road game.
Choose: Jets 24, Cardinals 21
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Cowboys will start Cooper Rush here for the injured Dak Prescott. Good luck. The Eagles will run the ball right at the poor Cowboys defense with Saquon Barkley, who will have a field day. Let’s hope the Eagles win this game on the ground, but the Cowboys will stay there.
Choose: Eagles 24, Cowboys 21
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Detroit Lions (-3.5) against the Houston Texans
Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, fubo free trial)
This is the second straight road game for the Lions against a team that is rested after playing Thursday. Normally, that would be a big advantage for the Texans, but they aren’t playing well. The Lions are. Still, I hope the Texans bounce back and surprise the Lions.
Choose: Texans 28, Lions 27
Monday, 8:15 pm Eastern Time (ESPN, fubo free trial)
The Dolphins are playing back-to-back road games and badly need it, while the Rams are back home after winning in Seattle. The Rams have improved on offense as they have gotten healthier. The defense is growing. Look for a big day for Matt Stafford.
Choose: Rams 31, Dolphins 23
