NFL Year 7 selections, fix, odds, accidents, fiction guidelines

Our NFL Society journalists convey us the largest keys to each duel, and analytics essayist Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for each and every matchup. The ESPN Analysis staff supplies a fat stat to grasp and a having a bet nugget for each and every tournament, past our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) is going within the numbers with duel projections. Myth analyst Eric Moody unearths fiction soccer X components, and 3 analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us ultimate ranking selections for each duel. The entirety you need to grasp is right here in a single spot to assistance you get able for a loaded weekend of NFL soccer.

Let’s get into the total Year 7 slate, together with the Lions visiting the Vikings and broad receiver Davante Adams’ Jets debut as opposed to the Steelers. All of it culminates with a couple of “Monday Night Football” matchups between the Ravens and Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET) on ABC/ESPN and the Chargers visiting the Cardinals (9 p.m. ET) on ESPN+. (Recreation occasions are Sunday until differently famous.)

Soar to a matchup:
NE-JAX | SEA-ATL | TEN-BUF
CIN-CLE | HOU-GB | MIA-IND
DET-MIN | PHI-NYG | LV-LAR
CAR-WSH | KC-SF | NYJ-PIT
BAL-TB | LAC-ARI

Thursday: DEN 33, NO 10
Byes: CHI, DAL

9:30 a.m. p.m. ET | NFL Community | ESPN BET: JAX -5.5 (42.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to observe: Rookie QB Drake Maye threw for 243 yards in his first profession begin in Year 6 and now faces a Jaguars go protection that ranks ultimate within the NFL, permitting a mean of 276.7 passing yards in keeping with duel. Maye become the primary QB to build one in all his first two profession begins in a duel out of doors america because the NFL began enjoying global regular-season video games in 2005. — Mike Reiss

Jaguars storyline to observe: Will the Jaguars alternate their manner on protection towards any other rookie QB in Maye? Jacksonville opted to sit down again and minimally blitz Chicago’s Caleb Williams ultimate pace (simply 8 occasions in 32 dropbacks) and were given shredded, permitting him to throw for 226 yards and 4 TDs. The Jaguars have the second-worst blitz proportion (17.6) within the NFL, nevertheless it looks as if supremacy nook Tyson Campbell (hamstring) will likely be again, in order that beefs up the secondary a little and would possibly build defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen a slight extra competitive. — Mike DiRocco

Stat to grasp: The Patriots input this matchup on a five-game dropping streak, which is connect for the longest through Fresh England over generation 30 seasons.

Daring prediction: Patriots DL Keion White will sack QB Trevor Lawrence. White has a robust 20% go hurry win price, and each Jaguars tackles rank within the base 10 in go oppose win price. — Walder

Accidents: Patriots | Jaguars

Myth X issue: Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby. Bigsby is in crease for a larger position with Travis Etienne Jr. coping with a hamstring shock. Bigsby will have to take care of early downs and short-yardage statuses, past D’Ernest Johnson steps in because the receiving again. The Patriots surrender the sixth-most fiction issues to operating backs. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Jaguars are 1-3 outright and ATS when liked in a London duel. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Patriots 24, Jaguars 17
Moody’s pick out: Patriots 27, Jaguars 26
Walder’s pick out: Jaguars 27, Patriots 23
FPI prediction: JAX, 69.5% (through a mean of 8.0 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Patriots’ offense used to be energized in Maye’s first begin … Jaguars’ 2024 separate agent elegance off to tough begin … NFL house owners approve Jaguars’ $1.4B stadium renovation

---

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ATL -3 (51.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to observe: Schoolmaster Mike Macdonald isn’t a fat blitzer, who prefer rather to ship simplest 4 rushers lots of the generation. Seattle is Twenty second in blitz price this hour, past the Ravens ranked twenty fifth over his two seasons as their defensive coordinator (2022-2023). However will Macdonald flip up the warmth towards QB Kirk Cousins? The Falcons have allowed the bottom power price in non-blitz statuses, and the Seahawks need to have the ability to manufacture extra takeaways then recording just one of their generation 5 video games. — Brady Henderson

Falcons storyline to observe: Falcons RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier each had breakout video games in Year 6, combining for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns at the garden. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most speeding yards (868) within the league and 5.0 yards in keeping with raise, connect for the third-worst mark. Atlanta would possibly glance to be a run-first staff for the second one directly pace with its ambitious one-two punch. — Marc Raimondi

Stat to grasp: The Seahawks have scored 20-plus issues in all six video games this season. The Ravens and Commanders are the one alternative groups to do the similar.

Daring prediction: Falcons OLB Matthew Judon will document no less than 1.5 sacks towards QB Geno Smith. Judon may have the advantage of going through Stone Forsythe, who ranks 63rd out of 66 tackles in go oppose win price. — Walder

Accidents: Seahawks | Falcons

Myth X issue: Seahawks WR DK Metcalf. He’ll face Falcons CB A.J. Terrell, and that’s thrilling information for fiction managers. Terrell struggled towards George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Mike Evans and Diontae Johnson. Hour Metcalf has been tranquility over the generation two weeks, this matchup provides him a superior alternative to get again on target. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Falcons have long past over the entire in 3 directly video games (all wins). Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Falcons 28, Seahawks 21
Moody’s pick out: Falcons 31, Seahawks 27
Walder’s pick out: Seahawks 28, Falcons 27
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.2% (through a mean of three.1 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Seahawks business for DT Robertson-Harris … Falcons’ London rising as elite WR … Seahawks lose any other key defender in Jenkins to IR

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -9.5 (40.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to observe: The Titans’ passing duel has gotten off to a extreme begin, together with a 95-yard passing efficiency through QB Will Levis ultimate pace. Thru 5 video games, Tennessee’s offense is averaging 135 passing yards in keeping with duel, thirty first within the league. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz stated the unit watched each passing play games to determine what’s occurring. Search for the Titans to get into the passing duel early towards the Expenses, with Levis particularly taking a look to get the ball to receiver Calvin Ridley. — Turron Davenport

Expenses storyline to observe: The Expenses made a fat advance this pace to give a boost to the broad receiver workforce through including Amari Cooper. How a lot of a task he could have this pace in such restricted generation with the staff is to be distinguishable, however the problem, regardless of how a lot Cooper performs towards the Titans, is placing in combination drives. Tennessee’s protection leads the NFL with 248.8 yards allowed in keeping with duel, past the Expenses have averaged 290.3 yards in keeping with duel within the generation 3 video games and now not scored greater than 23 issues. Converting that pattern will likely be key. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to grasp: The Titans govern the NFL in general protection (248.8 yards in keeping with duel), which is their third-fewest yards allowed in keeping with duel within the first 5 video games since 1976.

Daring prediction: Cooper will document a 40-plus-yard reception in his Expenses debut. The Browns effectively worn Cooper as extra of a deep warning ultimate hour. Buffalo will likely be satisfied to have any other deep choice for QB Josh Allen. — Walder

Accidents: Titans | Expenses

Myth X issue: Titans RB Tony Pollard. He has scored 15 or extra fiction issues in 4 out of 5 video games. He has been one of the most few constant fiction choices for the Titans and is all set for a immense workload as Tyjae Spears do business in with a hamstring shock. Pollard faces a Expenses protection that has allowed the second-most fiction issues in keeping with duel to operating backs. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Expenses are 1-6 ATS of their generation seven video games laying no less than a landing. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Expenses 27, Titans 21
Moody’s pick out: Expenses 27, Titans 10
Walder’s pick out: Expenses 27, Titans 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 71.4% (through a mean of 8.6 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Titans nonetheless looking to determine what works supreme with QB Levis … WR Cooper excited for ‘brandnew starting’ with Expenses

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -5.5 (41.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to observe: Deny participant has impacted QB Joe Burrow greater than Browns DE Myles Garrett. Garrett has sacked Burrow essentially the most (8), crash him two times up to someone else (16) and in addition held Burrow to a 28.6 final touch proportion when pressuring him. Burrow on going through the Browns: “We’re going to have to get physical, run the ball really well, play-action and just play an overall team game.” — Ben Child

Browns storyline to observe: RB Nick Chubb is anticipated to build his season debut as he returns from ultimate hour’s extreme knee shock. Hour Chubb more than likely will likely be on a snap rely, he may assistance a suffering offense that also hasn’t discovered an id via six video games. The Bengals’ protection ranks ultimate within the NFL in luck price on run performs (47.3%). — Daniel Oyefusi

Stat to grasp: The Bengals have an NFL-worst 47% defensive luck price towards the run. All alternative groups within the NFL are above 50%.

Daring prediction: Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson will sack QB Deshaun Watson 3 times. Watson is taking sacks at an outrageous 12.4% price. With this fat efficiency, Hendrickson will inauguration himself into the now obvious Defensive Participant of the Month race. — Walder

Accidents: Bengals | Browns

Myth X issue: Bengals RB Chase Brown. He has emerged because the supremacy again in Cincinnati, scoring 14-plus fiction issues in each and every of the generation 3 video games. Terminating pace towards the Giants, Brown performed extra snaps than Zack Moss for the primary generation this season. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Browns have long past below their staff general in all six video games this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Bengals 28, Browns 14
Moody’s pick out: Bengals 27, Browns 20
Walder’s pick out: Bengals 33, Browns 16
FPI prediction: CIN, 61.8% (through a mean of four.7 issues)

Matchup must-reads: RB Brown including dynamic part to Bengals’ assault … Browns business WR Cooper to Expenses … What RB Chubb’s go back can ruthless for Browns’ offense

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: GB -2.5 (47.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to observe: Schoolmaster DeMeco Ryans stated previous within the pace that Packers QB Jordan Love “will be the best quarterback we’ve seen this year.” And Love’s most powerful skill is play-action, as he has the second one perfect passer ranking (132.1) in the ones statuses. Additionally, the Texans aim protecting it as they’ve allowed the third-highest passer ranking (126). — DJ Bien-Aime

Packers storyline to observe: Hour a lot of the point of interest ultimate pace used to be at the go back of WR Romeo Doubs from his one-game suspense, the Packers’ maximum constant receiver has been Jayden Reed. He has a team-high 27 catches on 34 goals this season, and his 79% reception price is 7th supreme within the NFL. The Packers’ offense will glance to problem a Texans protection this is permitting 163.2 passing yards in keeping with duel, the fourth-best mark. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to grasp: DE Will Anderson Jr.’s 5.5 sacks this season are essentially the most through a Houston participant via six video games since J.J. Watt in 2018 (7.0).

Daring prediction: Texans LB Henry To’oTo’o will document 10-plus mixed tackles. To’oTo’o ranks 14th out of 52 in take on price on run performs amongst off-ball linebackers who’ve performed no less than 70% of snaps this season. — Walder

Accidents: Texans | Packers

Myth X issue: Love. He has scored 25 or extra fiction issues in two of his generation 3 video games. The matchup with the Texans at Lambeau Grassland is projected to be majestic scoring. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: NFC North groups are 17-3 ATS in non-division video games this season, together with 3-0 ATS in Year 6. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Texans 30, Packers 28
Moody’s pick out: Packers 30, Texans 24
Walder’s pick out: Packers 27, Texans 24
FPI prediction: GB, 57.7% (through a mean of three.1 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Texans’ offense, RB Mixon burst in spite of now not having WR Collins … Packers’ Love proving he ‘trusts all of the receiving corps’ … McManus thankful to attach Packers then ‘tricky generation’

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3 (43.5 O/U)

Dolphins storyline to observe: In QB Tyler Huntley’s 1/3 begin of the season, secure an vision on tight finish Jonnu Smith, whom Huntley centered 8 occasions in Miami’s win over the Patriots in Year 5. The Dolphins spent the bye pace bobbing up with tactics to get him extra concerned, and the Colts have allowed the Tenth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. Huntley and the Dolphins can obvious up the passing duel through origination the run — particularly then speeding for a season-high 193 yards in Year 5. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Colts storyline to observe: The Colts have controlled to retain only one opponent to fewer than 100 speeding yards this season and feature differently been disappointing towards the run. Can they supremacy to secure the Dolphins in test given Miami’s underwhelming speeding assault this is generating 3.9 yards in keeping with raise? The Colts’ hurry protection has stabilized a little since its two opening video games, when it allowed 474 mixed yards. If Indianapolis can restrict the garden duel, it places extra power on Miami’s passing duel with its mad quarterback status. — Stephen Holder

Stat to grasp: Miami’s 12 issues in keeping with duel (60 general issues) are the worst in NFL. It has scored fewer than 75 issues in six directly video games simplest 3 times in franchise historical past.

Daring prediction: Colts WR Josh Downs will document a fourth directly duel with 65 or extra receiving yards. Downs has been fruitful operating with QB Joe Flacco, however I feel he’ll stay efficient even with Anthony Richardson. His 80 obvious ranking suggests his path operating has taken a step up. — Walder

Accidents: Dolphins | Colts

Myth X issue: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill. He led Miami in goals (10), receptions (six) and receiving yards (69) in Year 5 prior to the bye. This pace, Hill will glance to assemble extra chemistry with Huntley. The matchup is simply too juicy to go up. Indianapolis’ protection has give up the Eleventh-most fiction issues in keeping with duel to broad receivers. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Colts are 5-1 ATS this season, together with 3-0 ATS at house. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Colts 24, Dolphins 14
Moody’s pick out: Colts 23, Dolphins 17
Walder’s pick out: Dolphins 22, Colts 21
FPI prediction: IND, 72.2% (through a mean of 8.9 issues)

Matchup must-reads: McDaniel expects Tua to play games once more in 2024 … Colts be expecting QB Richardson to begin vs. Dolphins … Why Miami’s offense is sputtering with out Tua, and what may also be fastened

---

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -1.5 (50.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to observe: Detroit’s offense will input Minnesota on a roll below the management of QB Jared Goff, who has 5 landing passes and nil interceptions in his generation two video games. The Lions have gained 3 directly towards the Vikings however are 2.5-point underdogs for the primary generation this season. — Eric Woodyard

Vikings storyline to observe: It’s crisp to consider the Vikings profitable in the event that they’re now not in a position to gradual the Lions’ run duel. Minnesota’s protection has allowed the NFL’s second-fewest speeding yards in keeping with duel (67.2) and the fewest speeding touchdowns (0.2 in keeping with duel), past Detroit ranks fourth with a mean of 157.8 speeding yards in keeping with duel. When the Lions are in a position to run on offense, they’re extraordinarily tricky to overcome. — Kevin Seifert

Stat to grasp: In 8 profession video games towards the Lions, WR Justin Jefferson has totaled 1,073 receiving yards. That’s essentially the most through any participant in his first 8 video games as opposed to an opponent in NFL historical past.

Daring prediction: The Lions will retain Sam Darnold to a QBR below 50, even with out DE Aidan Hutchinson. Don’t get me unsuitable, Hutchinson used to be superb, however Detroit’s defensive renaissance is ready extra than simply him. They’ll step up with out Hutchinson. — Walder

Accidents: Lions | Vikings

Myth X issue: Lions WR Jameson Williams. Is he gliding below the radar? Amon-Ra St. Brown is a should begin for fiction managers, however I do get requested a accumulation of questions on whether or not to begin or take a seat Williams. Hour he has had 9 or extra goals in simplest two video games this season, Williams has scored 14-plus fiction issues in 5 out of six video games. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS this season, looking for to be the primary staff to win and guard their first six video games since 2009. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Lions 28, Vikings 27
Moody’s pick out: Lions 24, Vikings 19
Walder’s pick out: Lions 24, Vikings 16
FPI prediction: DET, 57.1% (through a mean of two.8 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Lions lengthen DT McNeill for 4 years, $55M assured … Will Lions’ bodily taste gradual Vikings’ WR Jefferson? … Lions gained’t rely out Hutchinson returning then damaged leg … Vikings’ 5 largest surprises that resulted in stunning 5-0 begin

---

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3 (42.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to observe: It’s the Saquon Barkley duel. The operating again returns to MetLife Stadium for the primary generation as an Eagle then six years because the marquee participant for the Giants. He has been as marketed for Philadelphia thus far with 482 yards and 5 general touchdowns. He’s undecided of what the circumstance will likely be like towards him however stated no matter it’s, he hopes “it gives me a little extra juice” to assistance his staff win. — Tim McManus

Giants storyline to observe: The Giants’ run protection has been a defect this season, permitting 5.2 yards in keeping with raise. Most effective the Expenses have allowed extra (5.3). Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen famous that with Barkley it’s about fending off the house run. They’ll have their paintings trim out for them on this revenge duel. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to grasp: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has 43 profession speeding touchdowns, which is connect with Corridor of Famer Steve Younger for the 1/3 maximum in NFL historical past.

Daring prediction: Giants QB Daniel Jones will poised a season majestic for passing yards. Jones’ perfect yardage duel (281) used to be towards the Cowboys in Year 4.The Eagles rank simply twenty sixth in EPA in keeping with dropback, and I will be able to see Fresh York falling in the back of and enjoying catchup during the breeze. — Walder

Accidents: Eagles | Giants

Myth X issue: Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson. He is still a decent goal for Jones. Robinson has distinguishable 8 or extra goals in 4 directly video games and has scored 10-plus fiction issues in each and every of the ones contests, together with two with 16 or extra. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: That is the sixteenth directly assembly the Eagles were liked in, together with the playoffs, which is the longest streak through both staff on this matchup within the Tremendous Bowl age. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Eagles 21, Giants 20
Moody’s pick out: Eagles 26, Giants 23
Walder’s pick out: Eagles 27, Giants 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 63.5% (through a mean of five.2 issues)

Matchup must-reads: How Barkley went from ‘Immense for past’ to Eagles

---

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -7 (43.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to observe: The Raiders, who spent 1982 to 1994 in Los Angeles and conserve a plenty and dependable following within the town, are anticipated to retain a vital family benefit towards the Rams. However the Raiders are simply 1-5 at SoFi Stadium, with their lone win in Inglewood coming without a lovers in 2020. Getting rookie Brock Bowers, who leads all NFL tight results in catches (37) and receiving yards (384), going early and continuously towards the Rams’ NFL-worst passing protection on the subject of passer ranking allowed (117.2) will proceed a protracted method to assistance flip that stream. — Paul Gutierrez

Rams storyline to observe: If Sean McVay earns his 79th profession win Sunday, he would connect John Robinson for essentially the most through a head lecturer in Rams historical past. In step with ESPN Analysis, McVay, 38, will be the moment guy because the 1970 merger to be the winningest lecturer of a franchise prior to turning 40. He can attach John Madden, who become the Raiders’ all-time wins chief at day 36 in 1972. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to grasp: The Raiders rank thirty first within the NFL in speeding yards in keeping with duel (79.5), past the Rams’ protection provides up essentially the most speeding yards in keeping with duel (157.6).

Daring prediction: A Rams broad receiver will document 100-plus receiving yards. I don’t know if Cooper Kupp (ankle) will likely be energetic, however I know that the Raiders have a defensive obvious ranking towards receivers of 30, which ranks fourth worst within the league. If Kupp does go back to motion, it will have to be a pleasing spot to assemble immediately. — Walder

Accidents: Raiders | Rams

Myth X issue: Bowers. He leads all tight ends with 16 or extra fiction issues in two directly video games. This pace, Bowers faces a Rams protection that permits the second-most fiction issues in keeping with duel to tight ends, making him a must-start. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Rams are 0-7 ATS on too much extra since 2022. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Rams 22, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick out: Rams 31, Raiders 14
Walder’s pick out: Rams 27, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.8% (through a mean of five.4 issues)

Matchup must-reads: How will the WR Adams age proceed ill in Raiders historical past? … Rams WR Kupp nears go back, however is Year 7 life like? … House owners approve Brady’s bid to shop for into Raiders

---

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: WSH -8 (51.5 O/U)

Panthers storyline to observe: This can be a nightmare matchup for the Carolina protection although it does get again 3 gamers (ILB Josey Jewell, OLB Jadeveon Clowney and S Sam Franklin) from accidents. The Commanders rank 5th in general offense (378 yards in keeping with duel) and hurry offense (157.3) and are moment in scoring (29.7 issues in keeping with duel). The Panthers rank twenty ninth in general protection (379.8 yards in keeping with duel), Thirtieth towards the run (153.5) and ultimate in issues allowed (33.8 issues in keeping with duel). Rookie QB Jayden Daniels’ skill to build off-schedule performs creates much more of a defect for Carolina. — David Newton

Commanders storyline to observe: Washington has been crash crisp through accidents alongside the defensive crease, with DT Jonathan Allen (pectoral) out for the hour and DE Dorance Armstrong coping with a rib shock that would possibly sideline him Sunday. Rotational DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste (ankle) used to be simply put on injured stock. That would govern to a tough duel Sunday. Within the generation 4 video games with QB Andy Dalton establishing, the Panthers rank 8th in speeding yards in keeping with duel (130) and 7th in yards in keeping with raise (5.0). Dalton is Tenth in QBR throughout this era. — John Keim

Stat to grasp: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has long past 4 directly video games with 70-plus General QBR, which is connect for the second-longest streak through rookie establishing QB since 2006, when General QBR used to be offered (simplest longer streak used to be six video games through Matt Ryan in 2008).

Daring prediction: Panthers WR Xavier Legette will document a profession majestic in receiving yards (66). The Commanders are vulnerable at nook, and that are meant to provide a possibility for the rookie. — Walder

Accidents: Panthers | Commanders

Myth X issue: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard. He’s making fiction managers overlook Carolina drafted Jonathon Brooks with the way in which he’s enjoying. Hubbard has logged 22 or extra touches in 3 of his generation 4 video games, and he has scored 17 or extra fiction issues in each and every of the ones contests. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: The Commanders have lined 5 directly video games, which is connect for his or her longest guard streak within the generation decade (2020). Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Commanders 40, Panthers 17
Moody’s pick out: Commanders 38, Panthers 21
Walder’s pick out: Commanders 42, Panthers 24
FPI prediction: WSH, 72.9% (through a mean of 9.1 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Panthers RB Hubbard: ‘I simply need to be superior’ … Commanders’ protection hasn’t stored up with offense … 3rd-down struggles proceed to hamstring Panthers’ protection … Commanders RB Robinson practices: ‘I think superior’

---

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: SF -1.5 (46.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to observe: First staff to attain a pink zone landing wins? Each groups have had issues getting touchdowns past within the 20-yard-line, with the Chiefs being fourth worst within the league (38.9%) and the 49ers now not significantly better (44.4%). The staff that does higher within the pink zone will get a determined benefit in what differently will have to be a related duel. — Adam Teicher

49ers storyline to observe: Deny quarterback who has began no less than 4 video games towards the Niners has averaged extra passing yards than Patrick Mahomes, who’s posting 339 yards in keeping with duel towards San Francisco. The problem this pace will likely be for the Niners to take on significantly better than they have got in fresh weeks. Kansas Town leads the NFL in yards then catch in keeping with final touch (7.1), past the Niners rank twenty sixth within the NFL in YAC allowed in keeping with reception (6.0). If the Niners are to in spite of everything recover from the hump and beat the Chiefs and Mahomes for the primary generation below lecturer Kyle Shanahan, a lot will hinge on how effectively they take on in range. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to grasp: The Chiefs are 5-0 in spite of outscoring their fighters through simplest 33 issues, which is the bottom level differential through any 5-0 staff because the 2004 Jets (plus-31).

Daring prediction: The 49ers gained’t permit greater than 4 yards to a display screen go. The Chiefs run monitors 7% of the generation, the third-highest price within the league. However the 49ers are the most productive NFL protection towards monitors on the subject of EPA in keeping with play games. Samples, after all, are slight. Nevertheless it’s one thing to secure an vision on. — Walder

Accidents: Chiefs | 49ers

Myth X issue: Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. Upcoming WR Rashee Rice’s season-ending knee shock, Smith-Schuster stepped up. He had a robust appearing prior to the staff’s Year 6 bye, completing with 8 goals and 20 fiction issues towards the Saints. Hour the 49ers’ protection gifts a problem, he will have to nonetheless see enough quantity of goals from Mahomes. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: 49ers QB Brock Purdy is making his twenty eighth regular-season begin, and he hasn’t ever been an underdog. The one generation Purdy has ever closed as an underdog used to be within the 2022 NFC Championship Recreation (+3 at Eagles in a duel the Niners misplaced 31-7). Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Chiefs 28, 49ers 24
Moody’s pick out: 49ers 28, Chiefs 21
Walder’s pick out: 49ers 26, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: SF, 51.5% (through a mean of 0.3 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Amid trades, Chiefs content material with WR room … 49ers ‘left the scene’ from Tremendous Bowl loss to Chiefs … How RB Hunt went from FA to powerhouse in Chiefs go back

---

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: NYJ -2 (38.5 O/U)

Jets storyline to observe: Newly bought WR Davante Adams is anticipated to build his Jets debut in what is usually a make-or-break duel for 2-4 Fresh York. He seems wholesome then a three-week hamstring shock, so don’t be shocked if he has a vital workload. The coaches consider he’s forward of the educational curve on account of his background with QB Aaron Rodgers. A sobering stat: The Jets’ six-game level general (113) is equal to it used to be ultimate season with Zach Wilson at quarterback. Cross coverage has been a defect (30 QB hits within the generation 3 video games), and they have got to trade in with LB T.J. Watt (4.5 sacks). — Affluent prosperous Cimini

Steelers storyline to observe: With Russell Wilson wholesome, the Steelers face any other important quarterback choice towards Jets protection that’s connect for 1/3 with 20 sacks this season. Justin Gardens has been sacked 16 occasions, connect for 6th maximum within the NFL. The Steelers’ offensive crease may be all set to begin its 5th mixture in seven video games with Ryan McCollum taking up at heart for injured rookie starter Zach Frazier. Gardens’ mobility surely is helping a banged-up offensive crease, however Tomlin has expressed a want to discover an offense with Wilson because the signal-caller. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to grasp: Rodgers has 28 consecutive video games with fewer than 300 passing yards, which is the longest energetic streak within the NFL and the longest in his profession.

Daring prediction: Fanatics at Acrisure Stadium will likely be calling for Gardens to retake the establishing QB activity prior to the sport’s finish. — Walder

Accidents: Jets | Steelers

Myth X issue: Adams. He has a well-documented rapport with Rodgers. Adams has averaged 8.6 goals and 16.6 fiction issues in keeping with duel when enjoying with Rodgers in Inexperienced Bay. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: Unders are 32-10 on “Sunday Night Football” since 2022, together with 6-0 this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Jets 21, Steelers 17
Moody’s pick out: Jets 20, Steelers 17
Walder’s pick out: Jets 23, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: PIT, 50.7% (through a mean of 0.2 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Throughout the Jets’ fracture with Saleh, later steps … Wilson or Gardens? Case for Steelers to begin both QB … Can QB Rodgers and WR Adams recreate their charm? … Gardens: Deny QB debate if I play games higher

---

8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: BAL -3.5 (49.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to observe: This marks the 9th assembly between QBs Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, two Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks who have been decided on with the primary and ultimate selections of the primary spherical within the 2018 draft. Jackson leads the head-to-head matchups towards Mayfield 6-2, profitable the generation 3. — Jamison Hensley

Buccaneers storyline to observe: The Ravens and Greenbacks are first and moment within the NFL in scoring. The Ravens govern the league with 21 offensive touchdowns, and the Bucs have 20. Tampa Bay more than likely gained’t depend at the newly found out garden duel that mustered 277 yards towards the Saints taking into account the Ravens’ protection is surrendering simply 59 yards at the garden in keeping with duel. That’s the place the Bucs’ protection must be the difference-maker. Within the video games they’ve misplaced this hour — to the Broncos and Falcons — it’s been due in massive section to broke tackling. — Jenna Laine

Stat to grasp: Since ESPN offered General QBR in 2006, 45 QBs have began no less than 5 video games on “Monday Night Football.” None of them posted a better mark than Jackson (85.4).

Daring prediction: There will likely be no less than 57 mixed issues scored. We all know the Ravens can ranking, however the Bucs are a pass-heavy staff with luck within the breeze. Baltimore’s protection performs proper into that, rating twenty seventh in EPA allowed in keeping with opponent dropback. — Walder

Accidents: Ravens | Buccaneers

Myth X issue: Mayfield. Mayfield has been a amaze this season, averaging 22.5 fiction issues in keeping with duel — moment simplest to Jackson (23.9). Baltimore’s protection has give up the second-most fiction issues to QBs this hour. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: High-time unders are 81-52-1 over the generation 3 seasons. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Buccaneers 35, Ravens 27
Moody’s pick out: Ravens 35, Buccaneers 28
Walder’s pick out: Ravens 34, Buccaneers 26
FPI prediction: BAL, 58.0% (through a mean of three.3 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Lamar, Ravens ‘being humble’ as Deny. 1 offense booms

---

8:45 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | ESPN BET: LAC -2.5 (43.5 O/U)

Chargers storyline to observe: QB Justin Herbert is coming off his supreme duel of the season, with season highs in passing yards (237), completions (21) and makes an attempt (34). The Cardinals are permitting the Eleventh-most passing yards in keeping with duel (220.3) within the NFL this season, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman may glance to assemble on Herbert’s efficiency ultimate pace with any other passing outburst. The Chargers may additionally get broad receiver DJ Chark Jr., who has been on injured stock all season, again Monday evening. — Kris Rhim

Cardinals storyline to observe: The Cardinals haven’t discovered a method to be constant, however Monday evening may well be the generation they determine it out if they are able to benefit from the Chargers’ weaknesses. Los Angeles is averaging 187 passing yards in keeping with duel (twenty ninth within the NFL) and six.6 passing yards in keeping with play games (twenty fourth). Arizona must give a boost to on its Twenty second-ranked 220.3 passing yards allowed in keeping with duel and Thirtieth-ranked 7.78 passing yards allowed her play games, however Herbert has thrown for greater than 200 yards simply as soon as this season. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to grasp: The Chargers have now not allowed a unmarried level off yields. The one alternative staff that may say the similar is the Steelers.

Daring prediction: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will moderate below 6.5 breeze yards in keeping with go effort. The Chargers run two-high protection 58% of the generation (1/3 maximum) and feature no less than one out of doors nook in press protection simplest 25% of the generation (least continuously). That are meant to govern to shorter passes. — Walder

Accidents: Chargers | Cardinals

Myth X issue: Chargers RB J.Ok. Dobbins. He has had 17 or extra touches in 4 out of 5 video games. With Gus Edwards on injured stock, Dobbins is about to peer a plenty workload shifting ahead. Additionally, the Cardinals’ protection lets in the second-most speeding yards in keeping with duel to operating backs. See Year 7 ratings. — Moody

Having a bet nugget: Murray is 15-22 ATS in his profession at house; Herbert is 20-13 ATS in his profession at the highway. Learn extra.

Kahler’s pick out: Chargers 21, Cardinals 20
Moody’s pick out: Chargers 20, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick out: Cardinals 26, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: ARI, 51.7% (through a mean of 0.6 issues)

Matchup must-reads: Chargers’ Harbaugh ‘assured’ center situation below keep an eye on … What QB Murray, Cardinals realized from sloppy loss vs. Packers