Three NFL playoff wild card games have ended and the divisional round matchups for AFC teams are officially set. The Baltimore Ravens will travel to play the Buffalo Bills next weekend, while the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans.
To preview those matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild card round. (For the Chiefs, who didn’t play this week, we asked Adam Teicher to provide an injury update.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championships, and we provided opening lines from ESPN BET.
Let’s start with the number one seeded Chiefs meeting with the Texans. And check back as the NFC divisional matchups solidify; We’ll also preview those games.
Jump into a matchup:
HOU-KC | BAL-BUF
FCA
Opening line: KC-8 (42.5)
Background of the confrontation: The Chiefs and Texans met in Week 16, and Kansas City defeated Houston 27-19. The last playoff meeting between these two franchises was in the 2019 wild card round, when the Chiefs erased a 24-0 deficit in the second quarter to beat Houston 51-31. Kansas City won the Super Bowl that season. –ESPN
Chiefs injury update: The Chiefs should have all of their starters and key players on their active roster available for the divisional round. That includes defensive tackle Chris Jones, who hasn’t played since Week 15 due to a calf muscle strain. Running back Isiah Pacheco and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor have also missed time recently due to injuries, but should be ready to play. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watson, who has been on injured reserve since breaking his ankle in Week 7 against the 49ers, has also been practicing and could be activated. –Adam Teicher
What we learned about the Texans in the wild card round: After an up-and-down regular season, the Texans got stellar contributions from all three phases in the win over the Chargers. Quarterback CJ Stroud threw for 282 passing yards and running back Joe Mixon had 106 yards and a touchdown. The defense intercepted Justin Herbert four times, leading to the third-worst total QBR of his career as a starter (13.0). Cornerback D’Angelo Ross also blocked a punt before returning a blocked extra point for a score. — DJ Bien-Aime
Why the Chiefs will win: Well, the main reason the Chiefs will win is because they will play the Texans. Houston, despite advancing to the divisional round, has not been a consistently effective offensive team since losing Stefon Diggs (knee) in Week 8. From Week 9 onward, the Texans rank 27th in EPA per play offense, including negative EPA per play. both in putbacks and designed runs against the Chargers.
Of course, the Chiefs also bring more than their share of strengths, starting with quarterback Patrick Mahomes but not ending with him. Earlier this season, you could look at the Chiefs and see that they were lacking wide receivers. But today is a different story: Kansas City acquired DeAndre Hopkins in a trade, Marquise Brown returned from injury and Xavier Worthy has shown growth late in the season. Plus, it’s at least possible that tight end Travis Kelce has simply been saving up for the postseason. Add that offense to a defense that still features some elite talents like Jones and Trent McDuffie, and Kansas City is a formidable opponent for any playoff team, let alone the Texans. -Walder
Why the Texans will win: His pass rush. As ugly as the Texans’ offense has been for most of the season (and frankly, it wasn’t very good in their win over the Chargers), their pass rush always gives them a chance. Danielle Hunter led the NFL with a 26% pass win rate in the regular season, and he and Will Anderson Jr. topped 25% in the category on Saturday. (Denico Autry was at 21% and also had a sack). Those offenses against the Chiefs’ tackles represent a place where the Texans, who are deserved losers, will have a clear advantage over Kansas City.
The backside of the defense also matters. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had a great regular season and earned two picks against Los Angeles. But don’t sleep on CB Kamari Lassiter, who didn’t allow a single reception as the closest defender, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and also had a pick. -Walder
Opening line: BUF-1 (51.5)
Background of the confrontation: The Ravens and Bills met in Week 4, and Baltimore handed Buffalo a 35-10 loss, the third-worst point margin of quarterback Josh Allen’s career. Lamar Jackson and Allen have only met once in the playoffs and Allen has the advantage. Buffalo beat Baltimore 17-3 in the 2020 divisional round. –ESPN
What we learned about the Bills in the wild card round: This Bills team may not have peaked yet. Coming into the game against the Broncos, cornerback Rasul Douglas said the Bills still hadn’t played their best, and the early playoff performance showed he might be right. Allen led Buffalo to score 31 unanswered points, and the defense held the Broncos to 2 of 9 on third down despite not forcing a turnover, one of the unit’s strengths. –Alaina Getzenberg
What we learned about the Ravens in the wild card round: Jackson has shown he can have success early in the postseason. Winning his last three first playoff games, he posted a total QBR over 80, completed 70% of his pass attempts, and threw four touchdown passes with one interception. The challenge for Jackson has been the encore. In each of the last two playoffs, he followed a win with a loss, producing a 44 QBR, a 56% completion rate, and one touchdown throw to two interceptions. – Jamison Hensley
Why the Bills will win: Josh Allen. Sorry for the obvious, but it’s just reality. Is it fourth and short? Allen can shoot with his legs and break through a defense for a conversion. Third and long? He can unleash an absurd pass like his outrageous touchdown throw to Ty Johnson in the wild-card round (which actually came on fourth-and-1, but you get the idea). And he does all that while being the best in the NFL at limiting mistakes. He had the lowest sack rate (2.6%) and ranked second in turnover rate (1.2%) during the regular season.
And the fact that he plays behind an offensive line that ranked third in pass-block win rate in the regular season (and that allowed just two sacks against a great Denver defense) certainly helps. As does the support Allen receives from his running backs. No team generated more EPA on running back targets than Buffalo.
The crows could being without top wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee) again, and that’s certainly a point in Buffalo’s favor if that’s the case. Although Baltimore has shown that it is capable of winning on the ground, the Bills’ defense was better against the run in the regular season (eighth in EPA per play against designed runs) than the pass (20th against dropbacks). They struggled with fighting, which will be a problem Jackson will face. So the Bills will probably need a lot of points to beat Baltimore, with or without Flowers. -Walder
Why the Ravens will win: His running attack borders on unstoppable. Baltimore showed it won’t refrain from using Jackson’s legs in the postseason (he ran 14 times in the Ravens’ win over the Steelers (knees excluded)) and the combination of him and running back Derrick Henry makes life brutal for defenses. . The read plays in the wild card round were incredibly effective, as Steelers defenders were forced to account for both Jackson and Henry, resulting in fewer players in the path of the true ball carrier.
However, beating the Bills will take a solid effort on both sides of the ball. Fortunately, that’s no longer a problem for the Ravens. Since moving Kyle Hamilton back to primarily deep safety in Week 11, Baltimore ranks first in EPA allowed per play on defense, postseason included. That’s better than the Broncos, who the Bills just beat. -Walder
