The first day of the NFL playoffs wasn’t as exciting as the league had anticipated, but the home teams held serve in a big way. The Houston Texans defeated the Los Angeles Chargers and the Baltimore Ravens easily took care of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild card round, advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs.
Baltimore and Houston left no doubt about their playoff victories, creating a drama-free Saturday in the wild card round. Although there were victories in both matches, the results of these matches provoked many exaggerated reactions.
Which Wild Card Saturday overreactions are justified? What are actually overreactions?
Mike Tomlin coached his last game with the Steelers
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
Is this Mike Tomlin’s swan song in Pittsburgh? The Steelers lost their sixth straight playoff game under Tomlin, and their third in a row by more than 14 points. Pittsburgh looked lifeless in the first half of Saturday’s loss to Baltimore, a game reminiscent of the Steelers’ four straight losses to end the regular season.
Tomlin’s playoff record is now 8-11, while the Steelers are 3-9 in the postseason since reaching Super Bowl XLV in the 2010 season. Tomlin has had an undefeated season in every year he has coached the Steelers, but has had little postseason success over the past 15 seasons. The Steelers are 16-14 in December/January over the last five seasons and 0-4 in the postseason.
The Steelers seem content with making the playoffs, believing Tomlin maximizes the roster the front office built. While it’s highly unlikely they will fire Tomlin, they could trade him this offseason. There’s a good bet on Tomlin staying through 2025, but that seat will be warm.
Steelers’ collapse is one of the worst in NFL history
Overreaction or reality: Reality
There was a point this season when the Steelers were 10-3 and on their way to the AFC North title. Pittsburgh had a two-game lead over Baltimore with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, essentially three games up with four to play. The Steelers did not win another game the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore twice during that stretch, including in the wild-card round of the playoffs. The Steelers faced five teams with winning records and lost to all five. The Steelers are the first 10-win team in NFL history to finish the season on a five-game losing streak (including the playoffs), showing just how poor Pittsburgh has been to close out the year.
The Steelers were outscored by 52 points during that stretch, scoring just 14.3 points per game. This collapse was as bad as the 2023 Eagles, the 1999 Lions, and the 1986 Jets: They all had historic season-ending slides after strong starts.
The 2024 Steelers are among the worst collapses in NFL history. They have reasons to be the worst.
Derrick Henry is the greatest playoff running back of all time
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
If Terrell Davis didn’t exist, Derrick Henry has a much stronger case for this conversation. The Ravens running back certainly belongs in the discussion after rushing for 186 yards and two touchdowns in Saturday’s win over the Steelers (7.2 yards per carry).
Henry has the most games with 175+ rushing yards in playoff history (three), surpassing Davis (two). He tied Davis for the most games with 150+ rushing yards (four) in playoff history and has the second-most rushing yards in a playoff game at age 30 or older.
Henry has 918 career playoff rushing yards, ninth in NFL history. His 114.7 rushing yards per game trail only Davis (142.5) in the postseason for players who have played more than 5 playoff games. Henry is one of the best playoff resumes of all time for a running back.
Davis has the advantage with his Super Bowl MVP and his dominance in his eight playoff games. Henry is in the running as one of the best playoff running backs of all time, but it will be very difficult to unseat Davis.
Justin Herbert is not a primetime quarterback
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Herbert had the opportunity to prove that his first playoff appearance was just a product of circumstance and not narrative. That narrative only grew in Saturday’s playoff loss to the Texans, when Herbert finished 14 of 32 for 242 yards with one touchdown to four interceptions and a 40.9 passer rating, while the Chargers only scored one touchdown in the loss.
If we take away the fourth quarter touchdown pass to Ladd McConkey (86 yards), Herbert is 13 of 31 for 146 yards and four interceptions. That’s an abysmal performance for a quarterback who has 21,093 passing yards in five seasons.
Herbert had more interceptions in the wild card round than he had all season (three). His postseason numbers aren’t great either, as Herbert has completed 52% of his passes for 515 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions (60.7 rating) in two postseason starts: 0-2 record.
This loss isn’t entirely Herbert’s fault, as the Chargers went 2-6 against playoff teams all season (and both wins came against the Broncos). Los Angeles was good enough to make the playoffs, but a player of Herbert’s caliber should be much better.
Two starts is a little harsh to judge Herbert in the playoffs, but the numbers and performance prove the narrative is fair.
CJ Stroud changed the outlook for the 2024 season with playoff victory
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
Stroud deserves the credit he deserves: He won a playoff game for the second time in two seasons. The Texans weren’t expected to beat the Chargers after their good, but not great, regular season. Houston was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender in the AFC, but limped into the playoffs as the fourth seed.
The Texans then defeated the Chargers and advanced to the divisional round for the second straight year. This is a huge accomplishment for Stroud in his second season, as he finished 22-of-33 for 282 yards with one touchdown and one interception (90.7 rating) in the convincing win.
Winning playoff games isn’t easy, as Stroud is 2-1 in his postseason career. Does this erase your sophomore slump? Not yet, as Stroud and the Texans could emerge as a threat in the AFC in the coming years with a win over the Chiefs or Ravens next week. Houston could avenge its playoff loss to Baltimore in the divisional round last year (if Houston plays Baltimore), or Stroud and the Texans could play well against the Chiefs to show they’re ready to become serious contenders in the AFC.
Saturday’s win was impressive, but it’s time for the Texans to take the next step. Stroud certainly has the offensive talent to lead Houston to another playoff victory.
