The Minnesota Vikings (12-2) have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the entire NFL this season. And in a few months, no one should be surprised by the contract that quarterback Sam Darnold will be able to get.
Depending on how this season ends and how free agency plays out, Darnold could land the largest free agent quarterback contract in the league this March. And while the Vikings are focused on the 2024 season, there is a belief across the league that Minnesota hopes to be able to retain Darnold for the future.
The Vikings selected quarterback JJ McCarthy 10th overall in April’s draft with the intention of making him the future of the franchise. That remains the case, sources say, even after McCarthy underwent preseason meniscus surgery that sidelined him for the entire 2024 season.
But Darnold’s play cannot be ignored within the organization. The former No. 3 overall pick on a one-year deal has the Vikings in contention for the first overall seed in the NFC playoffs and a first-round bye.
“It could end up being a Jordan Love-type situation,” one AFC executive said this week.
To be sure, the Vikings have publicly repeated that their efforts are underway this season. That was repeated again when Minnesota signed Daniel Jones to its practice squad last month. Minnesota only has one quarterback under contract for 2025 in McCarthy, and the signing of Jones was neither an indication that Darnold would return nor a concern about McCarthy’s recovery.
Darnold is completing over 67% of his passes while throwing 29 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. He has engineered four game-winning drives this season while leading the league’s eighth-best scoring offense under head coach and play-caller Kevin O’Connell. His 104.9 passer rating is fourth-best in the league this year, by far the best of his seven-year career, and he’s one win away from tying the 13 wins he had in three seasons with the Jets.
Darnold came to Minnesota after a year as Brock Purdy’s backup in San Francisco, brought in as insurance for the 49ers in case Purdy’s elbow had not fully recovered from offseason surgery. Darnold barely saw game action, and in March he signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Vikings to potentially be their starter after Kirk Cousins left in free agency.
The Vikings drafted McCarthy but listed Darnold as QB1 to begin the preseason. Before the competition could really shake out, McCarthy underwent season-ending surgery and Darnold won the job by default. Now he may earn it by 2025 on merit.
“I’m really caught up in the moment. I think that’s the best way to approach it, just be where my feet are,” Darnold told ESPN recently.
Darnold, 27, could earn a contract that would pay more than $25 million per year, according to multiple league sources. How this year ends will help determine that number, which could end up being out of Minnesota’s price range.
The Vikings are estimated to have more than $70 million in cap space next year, and they could always make more or negotiate a deal with Darnold to comfortably accommodate him for next season and beyond.
Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are the only quarterbacks in this next draft class considered potential starters in Week 1. There is also a weak free agent class, especially if Russell Wilson opts to re-sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A source said that if Darnold leaves Minnesota, he will be selective in his next stop, hoping to avoid a bad situation like the one he was drafted to the Jets or traded for in Carolina.
Which coaches are hired and where in this cycle could also affect Darnold. If a team in need of a quarterback has a head coach whose system fits Darnold, that could become an option that, at least currently, it is not.
And if the Vikings keep Darnold, the organization will have to figure it out with McCarthy. There was never a guarantee that McCarthy would be the Week 1 starter in 2024, and his injury plus Darnold’s play could be reasonable explanations for why the Vikings would continue with the veteran while McCarthy continues to sit. But that’s a situation the team would have to address this offseason.
There’s also a realistic scenario where Darnold leaves in free agency and the Vikings sign Jones. He has been on the practice squad the last few weeks, opting to stay in Minnesota as more than one team has inquired about his availability recently.
But many of those questions can and will be answered with the final three games of the regular season plus the postseason. Until then, the Vikings are focused on the now.
