NBA betting: Don’t rule out Giannis in the MVP race

The Bucks got off to a terrible start this season, losing eight of their first 10 games to fall to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. That losing streak overshadowed the fact that Giannis Antetokounmpo was playing incredible basketball, putting up better numbers than in either of his two MVP-winning campaigns.

It is no longer overlooked.

According to ESPN BET, Antetokounmpo is tied with Luka Doncic for the third-lowest odds to win NBA MVP this season, behind only Nikola Jokic (-110) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+280). But does he have a legitimate chance to win his third MVP this season? I say yes.

All probabilities are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Goalscorer leader

Antetokounmpo now leads the NBA in scoring with 32.7 points per game and, more importantly, has found a way to more effectively share the ball and the reins of the team with his running mate Damian Lillard.

And he’s done it in surprising fashion, actually increasing his usage percentage (percentage of possessions that ended in a shot, assist, or turnover) from 33.0% last season to 36.6% this season. Antetokounmpo led the league in usage percentage in 2019-20, the second time he won MVP, and again in 2022-23. But last season it seemed like Giannis and Lillard couldn’t find synergy with each other, as they were both used to handling the ball to a large extent.

This season, they seem to have found more balance by running more pick-and-roll action against each other, plus coach Doc Rivers has scaled their minutes more effectively. The two-man game, which includes dribbling handoffs along with receiving the ball, seems to allow both men to touch and get into rhythm at the same time.

Improved chemistry

Antetokounmpo finally seems capable of fully recreating the combination of downhill offense and smart passing that once made defenses have to try to “build a wall” of defenders to keep him out of the paint.

With Lillard back to his elite offensive creation as a lieutenant and a roster full of 3 and D players surrounding them, the Bucks are once again fielding the formidably balanced offensive and defensive team that led them to so much success in previous years.

And that success is the key to Giannis’ MVP hopes. Because while his statistical resume stacks up against anyone else’s, he can only be a viable MVP candidate if his team finishes the season among the best in the league. And the way they’ve played over the last month, the Bucks could be on track to compete enough to back up their case.

Currently, they have won 12 of their last 15 games and have moved up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference. That’s not normal; In fact, the Bucks are the first team in NBA history to start 2-8 or worse through 10 games and then win at least 12 of the next 15.

They are also just 1.5 games out of third place and, at 14-11, have almost the same record as Jokic’s Nuggets (14-10, fifth place in the Western Conference).

Giannis’ chances of being the Most Valuable Player

If Antetokounmpo continues to lead the league in scoring and the Bucks continue to win at a rate close to this, he should move up the MVP rankings. Him leading them to the NBA Cup championship game is also a blessing, because it draws more attention to how stellar he is playing right now.

I agree that reigning MVP Jokic should, at this point, be at the front of the MVP race. And last year’s runner-up, SGA, also deserves to be in the thick of things.

That being said, Giannis is playing at an MVP level and, more importantly, his team is winning. His MVP odds have a lot more juice than any of the others who, in my opinion, also have a realistic chance of winning. Therefore, I find value in Giannis to win MVP at +700.