The Rams’ victory over the 49ers brings them closer to the top of the NFC West

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The Los Angeles Rams’ 12-6 victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night propelled them closer to the top of the NFC West and a playoff berth.

The Rams entered the game with a 35% chance of making the playoffs and a 32% chance of winning the division, according to ESPN Analytics. Those numbers increased significantly after the win: The Rams’ chances of making the playoffs are now 52% and winning the division are 49% entering the weekend.

And perhaps most importantly, the Rams continue to control their destiny with three games remaining. The Rams finish their season at the New York Jets and at the home of the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.

The Rams have made the playoffs in five of the previous seven seasons under head coach Sean McVay, including a trip to Super Bowl LIII and a victory in Super Bowl LVI.

At 8-6, the Rams are now a half-game behind the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks.

But if the Rams want to make the playoffs, they’ll need some consistency from their offense, an area that has been a struggle.

Just four days after scoring a season-high 44 points against the Buffalo Bills, a team that had already clinched its division, Los Angeles struggled to move the ball on a rainy night.

In the first half, the Rams had a season-low 89 yards of offense. They got it back in the second half and finished with 302 yards in the win.

Quarterback Breakdown: Quarterback Matthew Stafford entered Thursday with four straight games with multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions, tied for the longest active streak in the NFL and tied for the longest streak of his career. He didn’t continue that streak on Thursday, completing 16 of 27 passes for 160 yards in a game with no touchdowns on either side.

Surprising statistic: For the first time since McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams failed to get a first down on their first four offensive series, according to ESPN Research. A week after scoring a season-high 44 points, Los Angeles finished the game with just 14 first downs.

Describe the game in two words.: Slow start. Against the 49ers, the Rams failed to score in the first quarter for the ninth time this season. According to ESPN Research, that’s tied with the Bears for second in the NFL. In extremely wet conditions, they failed to find ways to consistently establish the run or get the ball to wide receivers in space, which put additional pressure on the defense. -Sarah Barshop

Next match: on Jets (1 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 22)

For most of the last five years, whenever the 49ers needed a galvanizing victory to advance toward a postseason appearance, they often got it against the Rams.

On paper, Thursday night was perfect for the Niners to write another successful chapter in their rivalry with Los Angeles and bring their budding playoff hopes to life. The return of linebacker Dre Greenlaw and defensive end Nick Bosa from injury seemed to offer an additional spark for a team that has spent the last two weeks talking about the desperation it needs to advance in the postseason.

As has been the story of the season in San Francisco, none of that was enough. For a team that has won its share of old-fashioned NFC West fights, Thursday’s loss underscored the fact that the Niners are no longer the kings of the division.

Although it was only three points, the Niners blew a lead of three or more points in the fourth quarter against an NFC West opponent for the fourth time this season. It makes them the first team to do that since the 2000 New England Patriots and effectively kills San Francisco’s hopes of a third straight division crown and a playoff berth.

Sure, there are distant mathematical ways the Niners can still do it, but at 6-8 overall and 1-4 in the division, they would have to win. Considering they haven’t won more than two games in a row this season, it’s hard to imagine that being possible.

The next four weeks should only reveal more about where the Niners are headed in 2025.

Ppromising trend: In a close, low-scoring game like Thursday’s, special teams seemed to play a prominent role in the outcome. Although the Niners came in 32nd in the league in expected points added via special teams, there was no one to point to that unit against the Rams.

Kicker Jake Moody made his field goal attempts, punter Pat O’Donnell was solid and punt returner Jacob Cowing averaged 10.2 yards per return.. It wasn’t a perfect performance (they took a pair of 5-yard penalties on punts) but the Niners generally didn’t make exhausting errors in the third phase. That’s enough to qualify.

QB Breakdown: Brock Purdy was mostly solid despite the rain doing him no favors, but the decision to throw deep that turned into an interception was the biggest mistake of the game.

Although Purdy has struggled with poor weather conditions in other games, his numbers Thursday should have been better than they were. Receivers Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel Sr. combined for multiple drops, including a potential touchdown for Samuel on a third quarter tilt up the middle. Purdy finished 14 of 31 for 142 yards with one interception.

Fundamental game: With just over 5 minutes left, the Niners faced second-and-10 at the Rams’ 33-yard line. With Moody already converting a couple of long field goals, that was field goal range.

But quarterback Purdy lost sight of the situation and tried to force a deep pass to receiver Jennings deep on the right sideline. Rams cornerback Darious Williams scored in the end zone for a touchback that ended the drive. -Nick Waggoner

Next match: at Dolphins (4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 22)