I surrender.
There’s nothing I can do to overcome the miserable way my NFL picks have gone this year. I tried to change things up a bit last week and it got worse. I went 3-9-1 against the spread and 8-5 over. That brings my season ATS record to 90-114-4 and my straight record to 128-80.
I remember a month ago when I was hoping to get my ATS record to .500. That ship appears to have sailed. Hell, I’ll take a winning week right now.
As one of my coworkers said this week, “stop overthinking.” So that’s what I did this week. We hope it can change things.
It’s too late to celebrate much this year, but please, I’m praying for a winning ATS week. Just one? Please.
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET (Prime Video)
This is a huge division game for both teams. The loser is in big trouble. The 49ers showed their pride last week against the Bears, while the Rams are coming off a big win over the Bills. On a short week, it’s always difficult to hit the road. The 49ers will be ready for this. They take it after a good performance by Brock Purdy.
Choose: 49ers 28, Rams 23
Premium: SportsLine expert Micah Roberts, who is on a 26-6 streak betting San Francisco 49ers games, disagrees with Prisco on this game’s total, but what about the spread? See who Roberts is backing at SportsLine.
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Panthers are the favorites here because they have played well the last few weeks. Bryce Young is getting better. The question for Dallas is how focused he will be after that tough home loss to the Bengals. I think the Cowboys will be and I think Micah Parsons and the defense will play well.
Choose: Cowboys 20, Panthers 17
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Chiefs are playing for first place, while the Browns are playing for their vacation plans. That matters. The Chiefs haven’t looked great all season, but they find ways to win games. They will find a way here when Jameis Winston turns it over several times to score from close range. The Chiefs win another close one.
Choose: Chiefs 21, Browns 19
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Texans are bye, while the Dolphins are coming off an overtime win over the Jets. Miami’s defense didn’t play well in that game, but I think they bounced back here. The Texans just haven’t looked good on offense. Tua Tagovailoa leads Miami past the Texans.
Choose: Dolphins 31, Texans 27
Premium: The SportsLine projection model, which has increased more than $7,000 in NFL picks since its inception, is fading Prisco and leading the Texans to cover against the Dolphins as part of a five-team parlay. Check out the other four stages by heading over to SportsLine.
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
This is the game of the day, but the Jaguars are coming off a win, while the Jets lost in Miami in overtime. At least the Jets showed up in that one. The offense looked decent. I think that will hold true when Aaron Rodgers and the Jets beat Mac Jones and the Jaguars.
Choose: Jets 24, Jaguars 17
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Commanders are coming off a bye, while the Saints are coming off a win over the Giants. But they likely will be without injured quarterback Derek Carr in this one. That’s hard to beat. They won’t be able to against a good Commanders team as Jayden Daniels is healthier after the break. The commanders take it.
Choose: Commanders 30, Saints 17
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Ravens are coming off a bye, while the Giants are running out of gear. The Giants don’t do much on offense, which is a problem against the Ravens. Lamar Jackson and his offensive group will score a lot here against a depleted Giants defense. Big crows.
Choose: Ravens 34, Giants 14
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Bengals are coming off a road win Monday night in Dallas, where they played better defense. We know Joe Burrow and the offense will score here. Can the Titans keep up? No. They scored six points last week against a bad Jacksonville defense. They will score more here, but not enough to beat Burrow and his gang.
Choose: Bengals 30, Titans 17
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Patriots are free to play a team that has lost three straight. Kyler Murray hasn’t played well the last three weeks, but that will change here. Arizona’s offense will get back on track by getting a victory that will keep it in the playoff race.
Choose: Cardinals 28, Patriots 20
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
This is a huge game in terms of playoffs. Both teams are coming off a break, so there is no advantage. The Broncos have the better defense, which will be the difference in this case. Expect them to turn over Anthony Richardson while Bo Nix and the Denver offense play a cleaner game. The Broncos win it.
Choose: Broncos 22, Colts 16
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
This is the game of the week, with two high-scoring offenses and two MVP candidates: Josh Allen and Jared Goff at quarterback. Both defenses have issues, which should make this a shootout. The Bills are playing back-to-back road games, which isn’t easy, but I think they’ll find a way to pull off a minor upset behind Allen.
Choose: Bills 37, Lions 35
Sunday, 4:25 pm Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
This is a long trip for the Bucs against a good team coming off a loss. I think Jim Harbaugh will refocus his group here. Baker Mayfield faces a tough Chargers defense. The Chargers will make the best of that matchup as they get back to winning ways.
Choose: Chargers 27, Bucs 21
Sunday, 4:25 pm Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Pennsylvania battle is between two physical teams chasing both sides of the ball. The Steelers don’t execute it as well as Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, which will be the difference in this one. Look for Barkley to lead the Eagles as Philadelphia’s defense limits Russell Wilson.
Choose: Águilas 24, Acereros 17
Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, fubo free trial)
This is a great game for both teams. The Packers are coming off a Thursday night loss on the road against the Lions, while the Seahawks are at home after winning two straight on the road. Seattle’s defense has played very well lately, but it is a difficult offense to defend. Green Bay’s Jordan Love will get the best of that defense. The packers accept it.
Choose: Packers 28, Seahawks 24
Premium: SportsLine insider RJ White, who has a 74-31-2 streak in games involving Green Bay, is leaning down on this pivotal NFC matchup on “Sunday Night Football.” He’s more confident in a side that covers the spread, and you can see who he’s picking at SportsLine.
Monday, 8 pm Eastern Time (ABC, fubo free trial)
The Bears are on the road for the second week in a row after being attacked by the 49ers. They didn’t play well. Minnesota is on the move. Sam Darnold is playing at a high level and I think he will continue here. The Vikings will throw a lot of looks at Caleb Williams, leading to turnovers. It’s ugly.
Choose: Vikings 33, Bears 17
Monday, 8:15 pm Eastern Time (ESPN, fubo free trial)
There is some uncertainty about the health of Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell due to a bone bruise. As for the Falcons, Kirk Cousins has had a poor performance this past month and this will be a tough situation for him to bounce back from, no matter who plays quarterback for the Raiders. I think the Vegas defense will win this for the Raiders.
Choose: Raiders 21, Falcons 20
