‘It doesn’t matter who they play’: How betting on the Lions in 2024 has changed

It was the afternoon of Sunday, November 17. The Buffalo Bills were controlling the Kansas City Chiefs, and sportsbooks across the country were prepared to do something they had never done before: make the Detroit Lions the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

For weeks, the Lions had been closing the gap on the two-time defending champion Chiefs. They got even closer with their blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the opening slate, just before the Bills-Chiefs game. Then, at approximately 5:30 p.m., the ESPN BET trading team hit the button and placed the Lions ahead of the two-time defending champion Chiefs in the odds to win the Super Bowl.

For the first time, the Lions were the favorites for the Super Bowl.

ESPN Research reviewed each of the Lions’ successful seasons during the Super Bowl era, checking odds and looking for any instances where Detroit had been good enough to be considered the betting favorite. It didn’t take long.

While the research team acknowledges that the archived Super Bowl odds for the 1970 season were incomplete, the belief is that the Lions had never been favored. But now they are, and the betting public fully supports them.

“Week in and week out, no matter who they play, the Lions are one of, if not the most bet on teams,” said Christian Cipollini, BetMGM business manager. “They are the public’s favorites.”

The Lions own the third-worst winning percentage in the Super Bowl era, behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jaguars. The resilient fan base endured decades of mediocrity and futility, season after season being lovable long shots, rarely legitimate contenders. Sixteen years ago, they went 0-16, a team few bettors outside of Michigan would touch.

This season, however, more bets have been placed and more money wagered on the Lions to win the Super Bowl than any other team at multiple sportsbooks across the country. After years of roots for Detroit, the Lions winning the Super Bowl is the worst case scenario for betting houses.

The betting public jumped on the Lions bandwagon as soon as the first odds for the 2024 season appeared at sportsbooks, and there are some major potential payouts tied to Detroit winning the Super Bowl:

• Last February, the week after last season’s Super Bowl, a FanDuel bettor ran a $27.34 four-game parlay for the UConn Huskies men’s basketball team to win the national championship, the Florida Panthers to win the Stanley Cup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the World Series and the Lions will win the Super Bowl. With the first three games already successful, the parlay, with odds of 3233-1, would pay $88,417.56, if the Lions win the Super Bowl.

• A DraftKings bettor used a $50 site credit to make a four-game parlay for the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals, the Panthers to win the Stanley Cup, the Dodgers to win the World Series and the Lions to win the Super Bowl . The parlay, with odds around 1894-1, would pay $94,720.

• More recently, Caesars Sportsbook reported placing a $150,000 bet on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at odds of +440 to win $660,000.

And the Lions are the absolute favorites. Bookmakers say Detroit would be the favorite over every team in the league right now, including the Chiefs. Bookmakers added that they are trying to increase the Lions’ point spreads to curb the betting public, but so far it hasn’t worked.

“They are our biggest overall loser almost every week,” Cipollini said.

Ten weeks into the season, more bets have been placed and more money wagered on the Lions’ moneylines and point spreads than any other team across multiple sportsbooks. Detroit is 10-1 and 9-2 against the spread heading into Thursday’s game against the Chicago Bears. Since 2021, the Lions are 44-18 against the spread. That’s the best four-year stretch against expansion of any team in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.

“The Lions and Chiefs have separated themselves from the pack in terms of betting and handling the Super Bowl winner,” said Adrian Horton, director of North American sports operations for ESPN BET. “Given their longer price tag to start the year, Detroit is our biggest liability in the Super Bowl as things stand today. That’s fluid, with a third of the regular season left to play, but for now we’ll be waiting to see teams other than the Lions in New Orleans.”

Even the Lions just making it to the Super Bowl could prove costly for sportsbooks. Detroit has attracted more money from bettors to win the NFC than the next seven teams combined at BetMGM.

“I think it shows that Lions fans aren’t just in Michigan,” says Wes Westhoff, a Michigan native and lifelong Detroit sports fan who works for BetMGM. “More money bet than the next seven teams combined? Those bets are coming from all over the country, which, as a Lions fan, is a little strange to see. But it’s also cool.”

Westhoff is a regional marketing manager for BetMGM based in Michigan, and regularly visits the MGM Grand Detroit sportsbooks on football weekends. He says Las Vegas-style sportsbooks have never been busier and bets on any team other than the Lions are few and far between in Michigan. At Michigan sportsbook BetMGM, 74% of the money wagered on Super Bowl odds is on the Lions, nearly three times more than all other teams combined.

“Throughout my life, I would say [the Lions fanbase] It usually starts with optimism, whether it’s justified or not,” Westhoff said. “Big Lions fans are very passionate and very loyal. And then usually, as the seasons go by and maybe the team doesn’t turn out as good as they hoped, it falters a little bit. But obviously in recent years that has completely changed.”

This summer, BetMGM published the first lines on Thanksgiving Day NFL matchups. They opened the Lions as 4-point favorites over the Bears. This week, heading into Thursday’s game, Detroit is a 10.5-point favorite over the Bears.

Westhoff, the BetMGM marketing manager, recalled his late grandfather telling him stories of Bobby Layne leading the Lions to championships in the 1950s.

“Lions fans have spent many years watching perhaps the best teams,” Westhoff said. “You can live a long life and not experience what we’re experiencing now. So, that’s a good place to be for now. Hopefully the success continues. There’s still a long way to go, but I think everyone is really enjoying it.” the trip right now.”

That is, everyone, except the betting houses.