Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Three big games on the slate for Thursday, so let’s not entertain a bunch of blather above. I’ll just say this, though: I’m grateful for everyone who loves football and makes it a fun job, even the Eagles and Steelers fans who continue to lash out at me for not correctly predicting their hot starts.
I’m even grateful to the Philadelphia radio guys for thinking my prediction of a 9-8 season for the Eagles was a BAD THING, as if nine wins is bad or calling someone a playoff team is an insult. And for thinking that I “ate crow” when I was there this week (I didn’t).
And I’m grateful for the Steelers fans who actually get my mentions because of this miraculous season. I invited him, you did it, the Steelers are amazing.
Go to football, go to Thanksgiving, go to America. Enjoy all the games!
Best bets for week 13
Lions (-9.5) against bears
This number finally dropped enough for the Lions to be attractive to me, falling below 10 on Wednesday night before a Thanksgiving matchup with wildly changing dynamics. The Lions are long-time underdogs and suddenly they’re the best team in football. It’s truly amazing how quickly Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes pulled this off. But even well-constructed rosters have finite windows to actually make it to the Super Bowl, so I don’t think the urgency will ever leave this roster. Which means the Bears, who should be able to hang around for a good portion of this, will focus all of the Lions’ attention on a holiday home game that should be extremely loud. The Lions simply have too much offensive firepower and it’s a David Montgomery revenge game, for Pete’s sake. Does the heartbeat of the Lions roster want Christmas revenge against their old team and a division rival? Better be careful.
Bet the Lions-Bears game on Caesars Sports Betting
CeeDee Lamb 60+ yards/Malik Nabers 60+ yards (+138)
The Turkey Day morning matchup can be differentiated fairly easily due to the quarterback situations for both the Cowboys and Giants. That is why we are facing a game with a total of 37.5 points. But I think there might be a little more offense than people think, especially if Tommy DeVito does NOT travel to Dallas for this matter. At least, DeVito is a long shot to play on Thursday afternoon. As such, I think we get a classic YOLO spot for Drew Lock, who has produced quality football in starts like this, including that memorable win over the Eagles on Monday night for the Seahawks last year when Geno Smith was hurt. Nabers was upset after last week’s game and his lack of involvement in the offense in the first half and should be a focal point for Lock and Brian Dabol from the start. CeeDee Lamb is Dallas’ alpha, who is still throwing a decent amount despite losing Dak Prescott and having Cooper Rush out there. These guys only have to punt 60 yards, well below their actual total, and we get a little big price on the back end. Honestly, this could affect the first half.
Bet CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers’ accessories on DraftKings Sports Betting
Dolphins (+3.5) at Packers
There will be a lot of talk about the cold weather and Tua Tagovailoa’s performance outside of Miami’s sunny conditions. And it’s supposed to be very cold and snowy in Green Bay on Thursday night, but I think we’ve seen enough from the Dolphins in recent weeks to trust them offensively, especially since Jaire Alexander is already ruled out for this one. game. . Romeo Doubs will also miss time, but the Packers have enough offensively in the cabinet. In other words, we should see some points on this one. The Dolphins defense has also been playing much better in recent weeks and could generate a Jordan Love turnover or two to set up the offense. Either way, there are too many playmakers on the field for both teams to not score points no matter what kind of weather we get. And if the Dolphins can protect Tua, we should see them stay within a field goal of the Packers, with a decent prospect of upsetting Green Bay as they continue their playoff push.
Bet on Dolphins-Packers in BetMGM Sports Betting
Chargers (-1) at Falcons
Perfect place to bounce back for Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert after a little was handed to them in a bounce-back game against their brother John on Monday night. They’re on the road against a good team, but the Chargers’ style of play will match up well with the Falcons, who would likely be better prepared in a relaxed playing environment. The Chargers will work, work, work even without JK Dobbins and I think they are a little tougher and better on defense than Atlanta. Kirk Cousins has come back down to earth a bit in recent weeks and I don’t think Atlanta can run the ball like Baltimore did.
Bet on Chargers-Falcons in FanDuel Sports Betting
Cardinals (+3.5) against Vikings
This isn’t your uncle’s Arizona team! They don’t seem determined to fade into oblivion in the second half of the season, but instead remain playful and much better defensively. The Vikings have been a bit uneven lately despite the positive results and we haven’t really seen them pull away from anyone in recent weeks, or at least pull away and then let the Bears backdoor in unnecessarily anyway. Arizona is easily the best offense they’ve faced in recent years and I think Kyler Murray can take advantage of some runs in this one and use his mobility a la Caleb Williams in the second half last week to get the ball to his playmakers and keep Arizona in the number here.
