Two teams sitting in comfortable positions in the AFC playoff race with their eyes still on division titles conclude Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. The matchup also marks the third face-to-face meeting between head coaches John and Jim Harbaugh, who coach the Ravens and Chargers respectively.
Baltimore (7-4) started slow this year, losing its first two games, but then won seven of eight games before dropping an 18-16 decision to the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers on the road over the weekend. past. With the setback, the Ravens find themselves a game and a half behind Pittsburgh (8-2) in the division standings.
After being named NFL MVP for the second time in his career in 2023, Lamar Jackson is on pace for his best statistical season this year. The 27-year-old quarterback ranks second in the league in both passing yards (2,876) and touchdown throws (25), already surpassing his total from last season in the latter category (24).
Jackson had career-highs of 3,678 yards last season and 36 touchdown passes in 2019, his first MVP season.
Another key reason for Baltimore’s success in 2024 has been the play of Derrick Henry, who signed a two-year contract in March after spending the first eight years of his career with the Tennessee Titans. A two-time NFL rushing leader, Henry is first in the league with 1,185 yards, 13 scoring runs and 15 total touchdowns.
Thanks to Jackson and Henry, the Ravens lead the NFL in total offense (430.1 yards), rank second in both rushing (177.3) and scoring (30.4 points), and rank third in passing ( 252.8 yards). Second-year receiver Zay Flowers has also been a big producer, as he is fifth in the league with 727 receiving yards.
Baltimore scored at least 20 points in each of its first 10 games this season before Pittsburgh held it under that number last weekend. The team could struggle to get back on the board Sunday against a Chargers defense that leads the NFL with an average of 14.5 points allowed per game.
Los Angeles (7-3) is on a four-game winning streak after posting a 34-27 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. The Chargers are two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) in the AFC West. as the two-time defending Super Bowl champions saw their hopes of an undefeated season dashed with their 30-21 road loss to the Buffalo Bills last weekend.
After a four-game stretch during which it scored 15 points or fewer three times, Los Angeles has put up at least 26 in each of its last four outings. He also held opponents under 18 points in six straight games before their high-scoring matchup with the Bengals.
Justin Herbert hasn’t exactly been shining this season, as he ranks 17th in the league with 2,186 passing yards and tied for 12th with 13 touchdown throws. However, the 26-year-old has thrown just one interception this year, in a 26-3 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 2.
Deemed expendable by the Ravens after Henry joined the club, JK Dobbins signed a one-year deal with Los Angeles and has excelled. Dobbins, a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, rushed for 805 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie but was limited to nine games over his next three seasons with Baltimore due to injuries.
The 25-year-old began his tenure with the Chargers with a pair of 130-yard performances and is 10th in the league with 726 rushing yards. Dobbins is tied for sixth with eight touchdown runs, recording a pair in two of his last three games.
The Harbaugh brothers have not faced each other since ending the 2012 season with a meeting in Super Bowl XLVII, where John’s Ravens defeated Jim’s San Francisco 49ers 34-31 to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Two years older than his 60-year-old brother, John also led Baltimore to a 16-6 victory over San Francisco in Week 12 of the 2011 season in their first meeting.
John Harbaugh will hope his team’s defense performs well against the Chargers. The Ravens are second in the NFL against the run (77.5 yards allowed), but rank 23rd in points allowed (24.6), 26th in total defense (362 yards) and last against the pass (284.5).
According to the SportsLine projection model, both Baltimore and Los Angeles are virtual locks to make the playoffs. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and earns more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Ravens qualify 99.9% of the time in its simulations, while that the Chargers have a 98.8% outlook. .
Baltimore’s current chances of reaching the Super Bowl are 17.6% and winning it are 10.8%, while Los Angeles’ prospects are 6.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
With a win on Monday night, the Ravens’ chances of representing the AFC in New Orleans in February increase to 19.4%, while simulations have them capturing their third championship 12.1% of the time. A loss to the Chargers would reduce those numbers to 16.1% and 6%.
If Los Angeles achieves its fifth straight win, its chances of making the second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history increase to 7.8% and winning the title rises to 3.5%. The model says his prospects drop to 5.9% and 2.8% with a loss to Baltimore.
The Ravens have a 30.2% chance of overtaking the Steelers for the AFC North title, which would benefit them in their quest for a championship, but only if they can earn one of the top two spots in the conference. According to the model, Baltimore wins the Super Bowl 27.2% of the time as a No. 1 seed and 16.3% of the time as a No. 2 seed.
If the Ravens finish between third and sixth in the AFC, the difference in their chances of winning the championship will only drop from 12.2% to 10%. The model says their outlook for a Super Bowl win is 8.5% if they place seventh in the conference.
Baltimore holds a slim 8-6 lead in its all-time regular-season series against the Chargers, but has won each of the last four meetings. The model calls for a close contest between the Ravens and Chargers on Monday night, but it is not one of three games with grade A picks based on simulations for Week 12 of the season. You can find those top Week 12 NFL picks at SportsLine.
