It was another tough try with my picks against the spread last week, as I went 6-8, but was 11-3.
Some good and some bad, as always.
One of these weeks everything will be fine again. Or am I fantasizing? It has to change, right?
Season records are now 100-66 and 75-88-3 ATS. That means I need to change it big to get back over .500 ATS. The weeks go by, so it is necessary to start this week. I see a great week ATS and direct.
It’s November, which means it’s time to ramp up. Thanksgiving is next week and I would love to get closer to .500 when we get to December.
All NFL Odds through Caesars Sports Betting. See the latest Caesar Promotion to enter the game.
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET (Prime Video)
The Steelers are playing well, while the Browns are not. But this is a divisional game on a short road week. That’s difficult for any team. And Russell Wilson wasn’t good last week. The Browns will show up on this one and keep it close. The Steelers will win with a late field goal by Chris Boswell, but it’s tough.
Choose: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Chiefs are coming off their first loss to the Bills, while the Panthers are coming off a bye. With the Chiefs losing, their concentration will be good. That will matter. They regroup and beat a team they are much better from a talent standpoint. The Chiefs are back on track.
Choose: Chiefs 32, Panthers 13
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Bears lost a heartbreaking game last week, but the Vikings have two straight road wins and now must play on the road for the third straight week. That won’t be easy. But I think this will be a game won by the defense, as they throw a lot of looks at Caleb Williams and force turnovers. The Vikings will win it.
Choose: Vikings 23, Bears 17
Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern Time (CBS, Supreme+)
The Texans are playing a short week, but they looked better on offense against Dallas with Nico Collins back. The Titans will have trouble stopping them this week, so expect the Texans and CJ Stroud to play well. Will Levis won’t keep up.
Choose: Texans 31, Titans 21
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Colts looked good in winning on the road against the Jets last week, but this is a big step forward in the competition. The Lions offense is clicking again and should have success against the Colts defense. The question is whether Anthony Richardson can do it two weeks in a row. I’ll take the Lions on this one.
Choose: Lions 30, Colts 17
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
The Dolphins have won two straight after the break to get back into the playoff race. Tua Tagovailoa is playing well since returning from concussion issues. The Patriots have done some good things with Drake Maye, but this is a tough matchup on the road. Miami wins another.
Choose: Dolphins 32, Patriots 21
Sunday, 1 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
This is Tommy DeVito as Giants quarterback, who benched Daniel Jones. It won’t matter. The Giants’ offense has struggled for a variety of reasons, not just the quarterback. The Bucs are coming off a bye and getting healthier, which matters. They win it.
Choose: Bucs 27, Giants 13
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Cowboys are a mess right now, while the Commanders are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles. They played on a Thursday, so they have extra rest, while the Cowboys are on the road after a Monday night game. Washington is the better team and that extra rest will do wonders for Jayden Daniels. Burst.
Choose: Commanders 31, Cowboys 16
Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (CBS, Supreme+)
This is a watchful game for the Broncos. They are riding high after their impressive win over the Falcons last week. But this is a divisional road game. That matters. The Broncos will win it, but it will be close thanks to a solid defensive effort by the Raiders.
Choose: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
Sunday, 4:25 pm Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The 49ers are reeling right now. They just don’t look like the same team and now face a tough Packers team that beat them in the playoffs last year before bowing out late. The Packers still haven’t looked great on offense this season, but the 49ers haven’t been the same period of the team. Look for Jordan Love and the Packers offense to play well here. The packers accept it.
Choose: Packers 27, 49ers 20
Sunday, 4:25 pm Eastern Time (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Cardinals are off, while the Seahawks are out of a tough, physical win over the 49ers. That wears on a team. Seattle looked good on defense in that game, but Kyler Murray is playing well right now. He will in this one, when the Cardinals win a key divisional game to stay in first place.
Choose: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20
Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, fubo free trial)
The Eagles have solved their problems from the beginning of the year to win the NFC East. But this is a long trip against a good team that really can’t afford any more losses. With the Rams offense back on track and their receivers healthy, I think they show up here and pull off the upset.
Choose: Rams 28, Eagles 21
Premium: Projection model SportsLine has revealed its Week 12 NFL picks, including the Eagles-Rams game on Sunday night. Check out the other picks at SportsLine.
Monday, 8:15 pm Eastern Time (ESPN, fubo free trial)
The Ravens are playing back-to-back road games after losing a tough physical battle to the Steelers last week. The offense was disjointed in that game, but now it has to face another good defense. The Chargers beat the Bengals thanks to the play of the offense and I think that will continue as they win the battle of the Harbaugh brothers.
Choose: Chargers 31, Ravens 26
